vita should get there...
cough
| TheSource said: I really don't see any of the existing machines, with the possible exception of Wii U if they do a price cut in October, jumping up much late in the year. PS3 & X360 each had their peaks in 2011 if you go by calendar year in the US market, there is little reason to believe they won't be at half their peak this year going by the drop last year, and the drops so far this year. Based on recent trends, this is how I visualize 2013 ending up at year end when all the data has arrived:
I think 2012 is about as weak as the US console market can be, unless demand for consoles has totally collapsed - we'll have to see. The US isn't Europe, we added 15 or 20 million people from 2006 to 2012, and our unemployment only jumped from 5% to 8% in that time, so in theory the US is a much bigger market than in 2006, especially if most people are willing to upgrade to the new machines. Everybody hope there has been no collapse in console demand - from 2014 onwards there are only going to be another 4-8m X360s / PS3s / Wiis sold in the US. |
Where did you get that graph??
And I think 3DS has a chance because it will get Pokémon
3DS should, it has two big system sellers this year in Animal Crossing and Pokemon X/Y plus quite a bit of games that can give it a decent boost like DKC 3D, Mario &Luigi, Zelda and a few others I cant think of right now.
360 also has a solid chance especially if it gets a price cut and good holiday deals/bundles
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
Maybe the 3DS??????????????
HELLO!!!!! POKEMON!!!!!
i can see pokemon pulling western sales of 3ds in the US
3DS starting to see boosts, has a solid summer lineup, and will end with Pokemon and Zelda this year. With its previous software releases I think 4 million is a shoe in, probably 5! Don't forget, a strong holiday season should more than make up for a weak first quarter/half of a year.
Here's an example: Wii 2008 was heaps and bounds ahead of Wii 2009 numbers up until the pricecut and the release of NSMB. Because supply could fulfill demand this time round, Wii broke records in December (3.4 mil in 1 month!). I honestly think the 3DS can get at least 1.5 mil in December, and possibly 2 mil.
pezus said:
Well considering it only did 3.7m last year with NSMB and that it's trending down so far this year I see 4m as a hard target to reach, but certainly not impossible. Pokemon will need to boost 3DS by around 1m for it to reach 4m this year. |
i really think pokemon would magnet pull the US market with the release of the game....
i feel like there are too much un tapped market in the US with the 3DS... I mean they are almost 3 million behind the japanese sales, so i predict that those market would open up later this year, especially with a price cut that i think is due this holiday season.
or at least a pokemon bundle limited edition 3ds for $199.... put out 100k of those and im almost sure it would sell out in day 1.
360 and 3DS
3DS with the megaton that is Pokemon
360 with a price cut and/or XBox 360 mini rumor
It's just that simple.
The 360 and 3DS are the only systems with a shot. And that's assuming the 360 gets that new $99 model or something of that ilk and the next gen machines are expensive for the 360, and that Pokemon and Animal Crossing are still huge for the 3DS.
Love and tolerate.
With successive consoles I think only the 3DS being a system entering its prime has a shot at this number.
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