Bump for updated magic number. Now at 5.61m.... Well its more than last week but that should be expected with the extremely low NA sales due to supply.
got around to updated it, poor week and adjustments this week whiped out last weeks gains. I left notes next to the week so people do not get confused why it jumped around so much in the future.
End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)
Wii- 72 million 3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases
360- 37 million Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak
PS3- 29 million Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut
Ok, so I decided to update it. It appears that since I started this the Wii has made no progress towards 0 on the majic number. In fact is has been selling at 50%. Which is why the % is better, but the Magic number is not.
End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)
Wii- 72 million 3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases
360- 37 million Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak
PS3- 29 million Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut
Sorry i just don't see the wii getting to or above 50% market share EVER. The wii hasn't been supply constrained in japan for a very long time and isn't likely to be ever again. In europe it hasn't been supply constrained for over a month and at worst will only be supply constrained at christmas and that only leaves america. With all the supply in the world the wii is only going to increase a small amount worldwide per week. At the same time the vast majority of nintendo's top games have already come out with only mario kart, animal crossing, wii fit in america/europe and smash bros in europe left to come out, so the wii will only receive a few boosts because of those games.
On the other hand the 360 is about to get a big price cut in america which will be huge and significantly boost sales. Before the end of the year the ps3 will get atleast one price cut worldwide if not two depending on how effective the 360 price cut is. The 360 has alot of wild cards for brand new games coming out this year such as alan wake but the ps3 has a huge amount of proven million selling games which will significantly boost hardware sales, not to mention the biggest selling game of last generation grand theft auto coming out for both the 360 and ps3. So far this year (using vgchartz data from the 29th of december till the 21st of march) the wii has sold less than 50% of total next gen console market share, how is the wii supposed to get above 50% ever when that's the case?
^ I think the Wii will reach 50% for sure.
maybe not soon. I think it can make it in 08 or 09, but MS is bound to kill the 360 a year 2 before the Wii slows down. A that point the Wii will run up the score, and go to 55-60%
Lifetime-
PS3- 75 million
360- 32 million
Wii- 120 million +
End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)
Wii- 72 million 3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases
360- 37 million Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak
PS3- 29 million Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut
a) wii should reach 45mil this year, while ps360 will combine for 45-48mil...and then next year it'll surpass it pretty quickly with the increased production...so i expect 50% in october and then lose it during holidays when supply = can't outsell ps360 and then gain it back for good next winter
b) vast majority of their games have come out? what about the following in the works: donkey kong, kirby, kid icarus, metroid, pikmin, pilotwings, disaster: day of crisis? some of those will come in 2008, others in 2009
what about the following possibilities not yet revealed: zelda wii, mario tennis, mario golf, f-zero, waverace, pokemon wii, etc etc
c) the reason we believe wii will get over 50% is because production will increase soon...also, nintendo isn't shipping ALL of production right now because they don't wanna overshoot their fiscal-year targets and they wanna have stock for mario kart and especially wii fit
also, their 'big games' really affects GAMERS...all the new gamers buying wii for wii sports and wii fit don't care about those games...and just like wii fit came out of nowhere last year, there is nothing to say that we won't see a similiar unknown come out next year...besides, they still have wii music and wii motor sports to release also for casuals...
Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08. Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)
Predictions:
Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07 CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp
| Fastrabbit09 said: a) wii should reach 45mil this year, while ps360 will combine for 45-48mil...and then next year it'll surpass it pretty quickly with the increased production...so i expect 50% in october and then lose it during holidays when supply = can't outsell ps360 and then gain it back for good next winter b) vast majority of their games have come out? what about the following in the works: donkey kong, kirby, kid icarus, metroid, pikmin, pilotwings, disaster: day of crisis? some of those will come in 2008, others in 2009 what about the following possibilities not yet revealed: zelda wii, mario tennis, mario golf, f-zero, waverace, pokemon wii, etc etc c) the reason we believe wii will get over 50% is because production will increase soon...also, nintendo isn't shipping ALL of production right now because they don't wanna overshoot their fiscal-year targets and they wanna have stock for mario kart and especially wii fit also, their 'big games' really affects GAMERS...all the new gamers buying wii for wii sports and wii fit don't care about those games...and just like wii fit came out of nowhere last year, there is nothing to say that we won't see a similiar unknown come out next year...besides, they still have wii music and wii motor sports to release also for casuals... |
Even tho you haven't quoted me you seem to be addressing the points i made, so i'll respond.
a. The wii is NOT going to reach 45 million by the end of the year. It's only at 23 million after 70 weeks. It took the wii 67 weeks with two holiday seasons to reach 22 million and you think it will sell another 22 million in the remaining 40 weeks? Yeah not going to happen. At the same time the combined sales of the 360 and ps3 will reach 50 million by the end of the year.
b. Yes the vast majority of the gamecubes/nintendo's proven million selling franchises have already come out for the wii. Last generation the gamecube had 25 million+ selling franchises. Of those 14 have already come out but more importanlty only 10 of those 25 million+ selling franchises made it above 2 million and 7 of those 10 have already come out and of the mega blockbuster selling games out their nintendo only had 4 - smash bros, mario, zelda and mario kart and 3 out of those 4 have already been released. None of those games you mentioned are in the same hardware pushing league as grand theft auto, gran turismo, final fantasy, fable, metal gear solid etc.
c. Like i said, nintendo shipping more hardware will only effect america because the wii isn't supply constrained in japan or europe. Even if nintendo ships more to america the increase their will be wiped out by microsofts and sonys up coming price cuts and the large amount of AAA multi million selling games coming out for the 360/ps3
| jimmay said: a. The wii is NOT going to reach 45 million by the end of the year. |
I hear someone calling me... Check out the bet I'm proposing at the end of my sig, and if you really believe that, you can take it too.
My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957
^Fable. Right.
If Nintendo really aims for 50+ % market share this year they could lower the price of the Wii to $199 or even $149 and still be profitable. MS and Sony have no way to stop them if they really go for market share. Which I think they should.
Hardcore gaming is a bubble economy blown up by Microsoft's $7 $6 billion losses.
| jimmay said: Sorry i just don't see the wii getting to or above 50% market share EVER. That's your opinion and you are welcome to it. The wii hasn't been supply constrained in japan for a very long time and isn't likely to be ever again. So? The PS3 has never been supply constrained (besides launch). I don't see how this will effect the Wii's ability (or inabiltiy) to get to 50% marketshare or do anything else for that matter. In europe it hasn't been supply constrained for over a month and at worst will only be supply constrained at christmas and that only leaves america. Once again, the point in not being supply constrained? With all the supply in the world the wii is only going to increase a small amount worldwide per week. I know this was written a few days ago, but this week the Wii is at 55% marketshare (for the week), so if it wasn't supply constrained (in America) it could easily do 50% each week. I also think there's still some supply issues in Others, since weekly sales jump a bit more than would be expected. See this graph. Besides a few major releases for the PS3/360 which cause a few jumps, they stay pretty much level, while the Wii just jumps all over the place. So I still think there are a few supply issues. At the same time the vast majority of nintendo's top games have already come out with only mario kart, animal crossing, wii fit in america/europe and smash bros in europe left to come out, so the wii will only receive a few boosts because of those games. What about 3rd party games? And how about the fact we don't know any Nintendo games coming out in the 2nd half of the year? Perhaps Nintendo has some tricks up their sleeves? On the other hand the 360 is about to get a big price cut in america which will be huge and significantly boost sales. Before the end of the year the ps3 will get atleast one price cut worldwide if not two depending on how effective the 360 price cut is. If the pricecut help them so much, I expect a Wii pricecut to counter it. Though as long as it stays sold out (and presumably continues beating the 360/PS3), I don't think they will. The 360 has alot of wild cards for brand new games coming out this year such as alan wake but the ps3 has a huge amount of proven million selling games which will significantly boost hardware sales, not to mention the biggest selling game of last generation grand theft auto coming out for both the 360 and ps3. True true. So far this year (using vgchartz data from the 29th of december till the 21st of march) the wii has sold less than 50% of total next gen console market share, how is the wii supposed to get above 50% ever when that's the case? If you use Jan 12 to this current week (March 22) it removes all effects of the holiday season (when the 360/PS3 will sell better relative to the Wii because of supply issues), the Wii is at 49.5%. If you look at this week, it's at 55% marketshare. So if not this year, then next year it will hit 50%. |
I know you made some points below this one, but I just thought I'd throw in my 2 cents.
As for your more recent post about it not reaching 45 million because it had two holidays so far and only was able to get to 22 million, the first holiday hardly counts since it was severly supply constrained everywhere. They have also upped production (and probably will again soon). It's on track to reach 45 million this year either way.
Edit: Yes, my sig has it only at 41 million, but that's because they haven't announced increase production. And as such I can't assume that it will sell more than they can (currently) produce. So I guess I could say you're right, it won't reach 45 million. Unless you're wrong and they up production, and it does. Course, then I'll be wrong. Hmm.
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