| jimmay said: Sorry i just don't see the wii getting to or above 50% market share EVER. That's your opinion and you are welcome to it. The wii hasn't been supply constrained in japan for a very long time and isn't likely to be ever again. So? The PS3 has never been supply constrained (besides launch). I don't see how this will effect the Wii's ability (or inabiltiy) to get to 50% marketshare or do anything else for that matter. In europe it hasn't been supply constrained for over a month and at worst will only be supply constrained at christmas and that only leaves america. Once again, the point in not being supply constrained? With all the supply in the world the wii is only going to increase a small amount worldwide per week. I know this was written a few days ago, but this week the Wii is at 55% marketshare (for the week), so if it wasn't supply constrained (in America) it could easily do 50% each week. I also think there's still some supply issues in Others, since weekly sales jump a bit more than would be expected. See this graph. Besides a few major releases for the PS3/360 which cause a few jumps, they stay pretty much level, while the Wii just jumps all over the place. So I still think there are a few supply issues. At the same time the vast majority of nintendo's top games have already come out with only mario kart, animal crossing, wii fit in america/europe and smash bros in europe left to come out, so the wii will only receive a few boosts because of those games. What about 3rd party games? And how about the fact we don't know any Nintendo games coming out in the 2nd half of the year? Perhaps Nintendo has some tricks up their sleeves? On the other hand the 360 is about to get a big price cut in america which will be huge and significantly boost sales. Before the end of the year the ps3 will get atleast one price cut worldwide if not two depending on how effective the 360 price cut is. If the pricecut help them so much, I expect a Wii pricecut to counter it. Though as long as it stays sold out (and presumably continues beating the 360/PS3), I don't think they will. The 360 has alot of wild cards for brand new games coming out this year such as alan wake but the ps3 has a huge amount of proven million selling games which will significantly boost hardware sales, not to mention the biggest selling game of last generation grand theft auto coming out for both the 360 and ps3. True true. So far this year (using vgchartz data from the 29th of december till the 21st of march) the wii has sold less than 50% of total next gen console market share, how is the wii supposed to get above 50% ever when that's the case? If you use Jan 12 to this current week (March 22) it removes all effects of the holiday season (when the 360/PS3 will sell better relative to the Wii because of supply issues), the Wii is at 49.5%. If you look at this week, it's at 55% marketshare. So if not this year, then next year it will hit 50%. |
I know you made some points below this one, but I just thought I'd throw in my 2 cents.
As for your more recent post about it not reaching 45 million because it had two holidays so far and only was able to get to 22 million, the first holiday hardly counts since it was severly supply constrained everywhere. They have also upped production (and probably will again soon). It's on track to reach 45 million this year either way.
Edit: Yes, my sig has it only at 41 million, but that's because they haven't announced increase production. And as such I can't assume that it will sell more than they can (currently) produce. So I guess I could say you're right, it won't reach 45 million. Unless you're wrong and they up production, and it does. Course, then I'll be wrong. Hmm.
