Very well done Sir, it really brings home how much Nintendo is dominating. (not to mention a little thing called the ds, which out sells even the wii.)

There are more than 4 weeks in an average months (about 4.33) so the weekly production is more like 413k than 450k and the latter would be about 1.95M a month.

That being said, while I believe the Wii may achieve that this year it is far from certain due to both other consoles doing better (lower price points) than last and capacity to improve (plenty of great games that should boost sales and possibility of further price cuts).

Even if it does it probably would lose it around the holiday season as the other two combined would outsell it and I find it unlikely that the Wii would have a big enough lead over them (combined of course) to keep 50% marketshare.

If it does this year then cool but if it doesn't it definitely will in 2009.

Remember, the point of this thread was not my estimations, it was to keep track of the Magic Number. I agree, that the Wii numbers are very favorable, I figured them on a guess that production would be increase to 2.3 million.

But, I according MY estimations the will well have had sold 7.7 million more consoles than the PS3/360 combined in WWW. The Magic number is 5.7 so there is about 2 more console to play with and still pass the PS360 by October 31.

+2 for stating assumptions!!

i've been watching this magic number as well seeing by how much beyond 50% the weekly sales are. I calculated 53.3% so far for this week but it's likely to go up after japan numbers are posted.

@ bigjon - keep this thread alive by updating the magic number each week!!

1. I based my numbers off weeks in the Year. I just subracted the 10 holiday weeks, so actually my calc ended in mid october, I was giving the 31st as a nice round number.

2. If nintendo stockpiles 360k a month(less then I used in my main post due to the fact there are 4.33 weeks per month) they will have over 3 million Wii in their holiday stockpile in addition to the 2.3+ they get from production, so for 10 weeks that is over 5.5 million "natural Wiis" and another 3 million stockpile. If nintendo can sell 8.5-9 million Wiis, in the 10 week holiday period, I can see the 360/PS3 keeping pace at best. So they will maintain their marketshare they gained in 08 in the holidays season.

I think 09 could be really good for Wii, that is when all of the 3rd party games that were started late will come to fruition and be released.

I want that wii cake.

Looks from the Fam number the Wii actually widened its lead in Japan... It looks to have beated the PS360 by over 40k instead of the 30k I was expection. Will wait to update until VGC does(I only use VGC numbers)

I'm almost certain we won't see that level of hardware increases, but I do believe we'll see some. I wouldn't be suprised to see 150,000 Wii's sold next week in Japan, probably more than three times the amount of PS3's which will also get a boost from DMC4.

that was some good analysis and i think you might be right that ninty will increase production and by the end of 2008 wii will have passed 50% market share

smash might be released this week but it wont count its sales until next week