The Wii's Magic Number -

[bigjon]

Srilumpa said:
There are more than 4 weeks in an average months (about 4.33) so the weekly production is more like 413k than 450k and the latter would be about 1.95M a month.

That being said, while I believe the Wii may achieve that this year it is far from certain due to both other consoles doing better (lower price points) than last and capacity to improve (plenty of great games that should boost sales and possibility of further price cuts).

Even if it does it probably would lose it around the holiday season as the other two combined would outsell it and I find it unlikely that the Wii would have a big enough lead over them (combined of course) to keep 50% marketshare.

If it does this year then cool but if it doesn't it definitely will in 2009.

1. I based my numbers off weeks in the Year. I just subracted the 10 holiday weeks, so actually my calc ended in mid october, I was giving the 31st as a nice round number.

2. If nintendo stockpiles 360k a month(less then I used in my main post due to the fact there are 4.33 weeks per month) they will have over 3 million Wii in their holiday stockpile in addition to the 2.3+ they get from production, so for 10 weeks that is over 5.5 million "natural Wiis" and another 3 million stockpile. If nintendo can sell 8.5-9 million Wiis, in the 10 week holiday period, I can see the 360/PS3 keeping pace at best. So they will maintain their marketshare they gained in 08 in the holidays season.

I think 09 could be really good for Wii, that is when all of the 3rd party games that were started late will come to fruition and be released.