So VGC numbers seem about right. Maybe a tad over, but not too far off. We shall see how NPD reacts.

The DS took off before Pokemon came out.  It started with the Lite and NSMB, at least in the US, and then just ramped up from there.  In the month before Diamond and Pearl came out the DS did 509k in the US, and that was in March.

Black and White 2 was released in Japan in 2012, and it was only about 3.5 months later in the west.  DS sales had largely dried up in Japan before B&W2, and it didn't do much to change that.  It didn't do much for European sales either.  The continued DS strength is pretty unique to the US, and seems to have little to do with Pokemon.  Also if it is largely about pokemon, then why would sales trends be a year slower than Japan when Pokemon X/Y is being released around the same time worldwide?

Your explanation on how that is related to the 3DS will be very interesting.

OT: Meh, I know that the DS will kick it's younger brother in the nuts any time soon but I'm still happy about this. While sales could be better they could also be far, far worse given the craptastic start.

I'm sorry, I'll try to explain it better for you.  Nintendo handhelds pick up in sales in the US about a year later than in Japan, and their life ends about a year later.  This is for all of their handhelds.  I also didn't say that people wait for Pokemon to buy a system.  What I'm saying is, Pokemon comes out a year later than in Japan, so it keeps the life of the old handheld going longer in the US.  It's not that lack of Pokemon is hurting 3DS, it's that its late release is helping DS.  It doesn't matter if its 3 months or a year, Pokemon launched at Christmas 2012 in the US, when the bulk of systems are purchased.  There was no major title for 3DS.  Combined with great deals on DS, and the fact that the US market adopted DS about a year after Japan did (meaning most owners have owned it for a shorter time) means the market lags.  DS has more appeal than it does in Japan at this stage, and it has been getting way more sales.  It was the same in the transition from Gameboy Advance to DS.  If history repeats itself, 3DS should have an amazing year this year and DS should fade away.

But at this point, the DS's sales were ALREADY ramping up. The DS Lite was out, the GBA had lost much of it's relevancy, PSP had lost much of it's steam in the US, Mario Kart DS and NSMB and Nintendogs and Brain Training were all already out, and DS was doing WELL.

The fact that the 3DS is STILL selling better means that, yes, it's doing well. It's probably going to continue to do better do, especially with a main Pokemon title coming out this year that should get many millions of DS owners to make the transition. Will it outsell the DS? Probably not. Eventually it will probably catch up. 3DS will probably have a shorter life span and will probably never reach the DS's height, but that by no means makes it a "failure".

This just doesn't hold up though.  In the first week of July 2012 (this is post Japanese pokemon launch and pre US launch), the 3DS was 47.5x the DS in Japan.  In comparison in the US it was only 1.2x the DS.  Even if you go back to July 2011 it was still 3.7x in Japan, and that's pre price cut.  If you look at post price cut, the ratio doesn't match the US ones a year later.  Even if we look back two years it was 2.16x the DS in Japan first week of April 2011, compared to 1.88x in the US last week.

Also you can't say the US lags a year because of Pokemon, and then say it doesn't matter if its 3 months or a year.  Now I'm not saying that the US doesn't lag Japan in sales trends, but my point is it has little to nothing to do with Pokemon, and it's not strictly a year.

3DS will never reach DS numbers.

Nintendo purposely killed DS in Japan due to 3DS sales.

They haven't done so yet elsewhere.

You don't understand the point so I'm not going to try harder.  And yes, 3.5 months might as well be a year if that 3.5 months puts you smack dab in Christmas shopping season when most of your systems are sold.

It's a simple point.  US gets games later than Japan, and adopts the handhelds at a rate that trails Japan by about a year.  It's the case with every Nintendo handheld. Pokemon is a significant factor as it ends up launching in the US on the old system while Nintendo is trying to convince people to buy the new one.

My point is you are taking a trend and erroneously determining the factors for it, and then using those factors to speculate on future sales trends.  If it was about release dates why have European sales dropped off before US sales, and why has that not resulted in significantly stronger 3DS sales there.  Same deal with Pokemon, Europe didn't see the same sales trend as the US despite launching a few days close to the holiday season.  Also like I said in my previous post, the US 3DS/DS ratio is less than what Japan was two years ago, and that would be after a pokemon launched in the holiday season in Japan which is supposedly the end all be all for sales.

You are also ignoring that nearly all the big games other than animal crossing on the 3DS have had or will have close worldwide releases.  Mario Kart 7, 3D land, NSMB2, OoT, Nintendogs, Pokemon X/Y, etc.  Now you can argue about animal crossing for this past holiday season, but even before that the US was not matching Japan in adoption rates.  So with all that, why would 3DS lag a year behind?