Ill be upgrading.

And by no means am I predicting doom on next gen as I think the consoles will sell great. I do however think the rediculously strong support for current gen could slow first year sales of the new consoles outside of the "core" who buy during launch month

Early adopters are not the vast majority. Im saying sales will be healthy for all consoles, and the Bros will ensure the next gen versions sell a few million as well.

Not much, early adopters will buy them because it is the first worthy new console to buy in many years, a new device that is just plain interesting, and or they have plenty of extra capital.

The average consumer doesnt come in an buy a brand new console on its release date.  The majority of early buyers are going to be those who are very core, natural early adaptors and scalpers hoping to cash in on resell (on a worldwide basis).  Both the new xbox and new playstation will be supplied constrained, even at whatever price they launch at (especially if its under $500).  Better versions of previous gen games is more icing on the cake that will work in their favor (something that fell flat on the Wii U's launch)

For the next gen versions to sell a few million, the consoles will have to sell a few million and have a 100% attach rate. They might sell around 500k at best. Both the Xbox 720 and PS4 aren't going to sell more than around 3 million each this year, and will likely struggle early next year.

Early adopters / scalpers only make a difference generally in the first 3 months of sales

I cant help but think there going to be some on this forum utterly shocked at sales come 6 months in

I dont think anyone is going to be shocked if they keep their expecations within reason. If Sony and Microsoft do not follow Nintedo software drought lead and continue to support their systems with functionality and games after the holidays (and I think they will), they will be fine.

After the early adopters and scalpers, they will just need to convey to the masses why they would want to pick one up.  An effective advertising campign can do just that.  They do not have to push 10 million in 6 months, but just get into consumers mind that there is another console available that will offer more.

I think only the fanboys are gonna be shocked at the low sales of the next gen consoles come end of year.

Talking about the PS4 specifically, i think its gonna be a hard sell. Theres no gimmick, no easy to show off, flashy feature that you can really show off in a store setup.

720 might actually have the advantage here depending on the adavancements of Kinect. Whats your take on it?

And yeah to make things worse the games are all the same...(apart from some exclusives which never did sell well for Sony atleast). Maybe im being a bit negative here but i think thats the reality of the situation unfortunately.

IMO Sony is doing a pretty great job of catering to the core market. I also agree though that as of now they have no easily sellable feature to the mass market.

If MS can really advertise Kinect 2 as being a must have feature and can match Sony in power they could really pull ahead early on. Right now its way too early though for me to predict how sales will look next year. Ill probably have a good idea after E3

I'm keeping my PS3 and it'll get a lot of action but I'm also getting PS4 launch day for Infamous, Killzone, the better Watch Dogs, and possibly Knack, the better AC, and the better Destiny (which is in 2014 if I'm not mistaken). Not to mention the improved controller and social features that I'll want to use.