The ps2 has lasted nearly 8 years now.

Yeah I know. That was more of a joke anyway, because it doesn't really help the PS3 will sell "x" units arguement, because if the PSP should sell to more people in a household, how will the PS3 sell more than the PSP?

Also, yes, the DS is scary. Japan has a population of roughly 127 million, and the DS has sold to 20 million of those people. That is just crazy, especially for a handheld. The PS2 sold 25 million in Japan, for comparison, and the DS should easily beat that, unless Nintendo comes out with a new handheld, which they won't, since they haven't even really had a price drop yet.

Edit: I forgot about that guy on YouTube that has "3" PS3s. 

 Yeah and GCN and xbox did not, PS3 is not in the position that PS2 was, its in the Xbox GCN position

That has yet to be determined since I dont expect for sony to release another console till at least 2013. And to the point , even if it does not last 8 years, lets say 5, you are saying it will sell 6 million a year. and then end in at around 40 million, like I said, you are kinda lost!

Man how many times will this go over. The GameCube sold an average of 5.5 million each year for the first three years, and then only managed another 5 in the next 3 years.

That is not the ps3s position, It sold nearly 8 million last year.

There are my predicted sell rates for each region, using adjusted % increases/decreases from the PS2.

Things to note:

• Japan stays very steady, yearly sales wise. Even for the PS2, the increase/decreases were very small, if any
• After the 3rd year, console sales decline.
• I've made the increases MUCH bigger and the decreases slightly bigger in Japan (compared to the PS2s)
• I've made the increases bigger and the decreases slightly smaller in Europe (compared to the PS2s)
• I've made the increases slightly smaller and the decreases slightly bigger in NA (compared to the PS2s)
• All in all, I've been very generous, in all reality the drops after the 3rd year should be much larger, especially since by that time the Wii should have 2x the userbase, and 50% of the market. 50 million is high. I'd say that 40 million is just about right, things considered thus far into the generation.
• Also, first total sales are given, except for "others" which is estimated @ 80,000 * 7 weeks or something like that.

 Actually dude your math is totally wrong, its been on the market for about 14 months and has sold 9.6 million, that means last year it sold 8.22 million, now we know trends indicate that for most consoles its first three years it trends up in NA and then declines, two for Japan, so in the next few years we can expect it to probably rise and then start to decline, even below last years figures so yeah on average it will sell under 8 million for the next four years

Note to all fanboys: The market determines if a system lasts much longer than five years - NOT the hardware manufacturer.

NES, Game Boy, Playstation, GBA, and PS2 all lasted well over five years because they were all ridiculously popular, not because the hardware makers planned for it. Xbox, Neo Geo, and GameCube did not, because they weren't popular.

Mainstream retailers, game publishers and consumers don't dedicate resources to old, unpopular game systems. It doesn't matter how great the hardware is or how much the hardware maker pretends the system will last forever...if the market doesn't want it, there's no justification to keep making it.

Anything Sony says to the contrary is propaganda designed to comfort consumers that don't understand the market.

I think many people are making assumptions that the current market doesn't support.

First many posters in this thread are assuming that those buying Wii this generation are those that bought PS2 the last generation whereas everything seems to be pointing out to new consumers buying consoles this generation that didn't the last one.

So the fact that the Wii is selling enormous amounts does not necessary mean that the sales of XBox360 and PS3 sales will be that much lower because of it.

Secondly I believe you will have a lot more owners of two consoles this generation than during the previous generation. The reason being that a lot of popular franchises of PS2 or Xbox won't necessary move over to Wii and the players that liked them the previous generation will want to keep playing them and the price point of the Wii allows for a lot of consumers to be able to afford 2 consoles within the next 4 years...(when many compare the Price of Wii now to the price of PS2 8 years ago they forget inflation, the Wii is actually a lot cheaper than the PS2 was when it started, give it a couple years and a Wii price drop and it will be really a mass market item and buying one won't be at the expense of the others consoles).

 So in the end yeah I believe the Wii will surpass the PS2, but I believe both the PS3 and Xbox360 will pass 50 millions too...

PS : At this point I woudn't compare the Wii to the PS2, in terms of mass market effect, compares it to the IPod. It's a shinny new toy that everyone has to have....