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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the Wii ever surpass the Ps2 in sales?

Avinash_Tyagi on 29 January 2008
ameratsu said:
I can't see this ever happening.

The Wii's lifespan will not be nearly as long as the PS2's. The Wii by design has sold very well out of the gate (appealing price point, appealing software and positive media coverage) but will not last like the ps2. This will be partly because it will not attain the landslide market share that the ps2 had (so it will have good software selection but not overwhelming support like the PS2) and partly because it is not bolstered by an emerging format (DVD).

 Doesn't matter, its outperforming the PS2

 

PS2 sold only 26.8 million by the time it fell below $200 in may 2002, its second price drop, Wii on the other hand is on pace to at least double that before it will need its first price drop, Wii's blue ocean is much deeper than anyone realizes it



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Stever89 on 29 January 2008
Avinash_Tyagi said:
ameratsu said:
I can't see this ever happening.

The Wii's lifespan will not be nearly as long as the PS2's. The Wii by design has sold very well out of the gate (appealing price point, appealing software and positive media coverage) but will not last like the ps2. This will be partly because it will not attain the landslide market share that the ps2 had (so it will have good software selection but not overwhelming support like the PS2) and partly because it is not bolstered by an emerging format (DVD).

Doesn't matter, its outperforming the PS2

 

PS2 sold only 26.8 million by the time it fell below $200 in may 2002, its second price drop, Wii on the other hand is on pace to at least double that before it will need its first price drop, Wii's blue ocean is much deeper than anyone realizes it


 I thought the price drop from $299 to $199 in May 2002 was it's first price drop?

Just checked Wiki... well Japan had a drop like every other month, and Europe had a price drop in Sept 2001, and then NA had one in May 2002, so I guess that is it's second price drop, depending on how you look at it. I agree with the statement though. The Wii is selling amazinely and has no need for a price cut this year probably, meaning it would go longer than the PS2 did before getting a price cut.

I also don't think DVD was an "emerging format" by the time the PS2 was released. Or at least, it had caught on to widespread usage by the time.



Sky Render on 29 January 2008

DVD was an emerging format in 1997, not 2001. By 2001 it had transitioned out of emerging and was transitioning into dominance over the long-time video format overlord, VHS. In that light, the PS2 having DVD playback support was an excellent move. It meant that people who had ignored DVD players during the formative years of the format suddenly had a way to get into the DVD scene and get a game system all at once. Even with that in mind, not many PS2 systems were sold for DVD playback functionality alone.



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ameratsu on 29 January 2008
Sky Render said:
DVD was an emerging format in 1997, not 2001. By 2001 it had transitioned out of emerging and was transitioning into dominance over the long-time video format overlord, VHS. In that light, the PS2 having DVD playback support was an excellent move.

well according to a few things i've read, DVD did not overtake VHS until well after 2001. VHS had more marketshare for a fair time after the ps2 came out.

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/4197.cfm (rentals DVD vs VHS)

Nonetheless, i think DVD integration was something that really pushed the PS2 forward. A system that exclusively plays video games seems like a smaller demographic, but the Wii could very well prove that wrong but i definately have my doubts.



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Sky Render on 29 January 2008

The rental market's always behind the curve; always has been, always will be. There are more people who will rent games and movies than people who will buy them. Indeed, a lot of latecomers to a format will rent titles almost exclusively. I recall being able to rent NES games as late as 1994, no problem, from the local supermarket and the local video rental stores. DVD was only just starting to overtake VHS in terms of sales of videos in 2001; the margin was quite close, but it was obvious at that point that VHS was going to be eclipsed at last.



Sky Render - Sanity is for the weak.

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DongHungLong on 29 January 2008
Sky Render said:
Let's see... They've made about 20 million so far, and are likely to up production again once the fiscal year ends in March, so let's calculate this out...

To date: ~20mil (highest: 1.8mil/month)
Feb 2008 to Feb 2009: ~60mil (+40mil) (highest: 3.5mil/month)
Feb 2009 to Feb 2010: ~102mil (+42mil) (highest: 3.5mil/month)
Feb 2010 to Feb 2011: ~134mil (+32mil) (highest: 2.7mil/month)
Feb 2011 to Feb 2012: ~155mil (+21mil) (highest: 1.8mil/month)

This is based off of standard production trends of top-selling consoles, adjusted for the fact that a price drop has not yet happened. Said price drop will likely occur in 2009 at earliest (based off of continued supply shortages in spite of heightened production), hence why that's basically their banner year by my prediction. This is also assuming that they work along the same trends as the PS2 did, which seems... marginally unlikely. The Wii's target market is substantially bigger. So take this as a more or less "worst-case scenario" prediction, if you will.
 So they sold ~20mil in the first 14 months...  Now all the sudden they are going to pull 40mil sells in 12 months out their ass?  Lol...

 



Sky Render on 29 January 2008

It's called production upscaling, and it has an exponential effect. Every 6 months, production can potentially increase by around 50% to 100%, depending on resources allocated and available. The last upscaling was around August, to 1.8 million a month. Going by a worst-case upscale of 50% for March, that'd put them at 2.7 million a month. Once August rolls around, they should be up to 3.5 million a month at worst due to another 50% upgrade in production capabilities.



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superwrxsti on 29 January 2008

I can't really toss out the possibility, especially with just one look at the Wii's phenomenal sales... But, it's hard to say whether or not the Wii is a fad, or how it will do in the future. It's completely unpredictable, just like consumers.



DSLover on 29 January 2008

I would be surprised if if didn't pass PS2, if it keeps selling out then it could surpass PS2.



 

 

MANUELF on 29 January 2008

The wii is more succesful than PS2 in first year