sky render, i doubt they will double their production - it's not possiblecause you know it's nintendo and nintendo don't do things like that. wii will surpass ps2 for sure, it has got larger market than normal console and is selling much better than ps2(in it's first year wii sold 14.27mln consoles and ps2 only 7.04) so everything now is up to 3rd party developers. if they will leave wii after ps2 will stop selling and go to x360/ps3 with their big games and will making shovelware games only to earn money for hd consoles then wii'll be doomed and end being close to 100mln but won't surpass ps2. if 3rd party developers will give some love to wii it'll be ok.

@superwrxsti

Wii is bigger fad that Ps2 ;)

I also doubt Nintendo will double production, even though it would be wise, because that's not the kind of company they are. Hence my conservative estimates on them constantly going for 50% upgrades to production whenever possible. And I don't quite get why people expect 1.) that the Wii will only get shovelware from here on out, and 2.) that third-party developers are suddenly going to lose interest. Neither is likely. Shovelware pollutes every console, even the PS2 has a huge ratio of it (particularly in its first three years' worth of titles; most of the great PS2 games didn't come out 'til late 2003 or later). And good games always take time to develop; that so many good titles came out last year in spite of how off-guard its success caught developers is a testament to the Wii's potential.

I doubt it will pass the PS2.

Here's something interesting:
Wii production, Jan-Mar 07:  1 m (not sure what it was earlier)
Wii production, Nov Aug 07 - Mar? 08:  1.8 m

Not doubled, but not far off, right?  Mar 07 to Nov Aug 07 is 8 5 months.  So I would say that "nintendo don't do things like that" is inaccurate.  Disclaimer:  I don't expect Wii production to be 3.3 m by Mar 2009. 

If I recall correctly, and if the news was accurate, Nintendo is going to wait until March to CONSIDER upping production.  That's too late to double production by 09, but 50% is very doable.  Nintendo has shown that it is not afraid to move fast once it is convinced that action is needed.  The convincing is what sometimes takes a while. 

http://www.gamer.tm/news.php?id=2010&filtr=wii

Well they aren't increasing production at all until April if they even increase it then. Theres 2 months of no production increases to cut into your 40mil a year lmao...

Wii will as long as Nintendo keeps making them for the next 5 years

It depends how well the PS3 sells in the next year and a half.
At this pace to many people are still buying ps2's and not ps3's, the longer this trend continues the harder it will be for the wii to surpass the ps2.
I do think it will be very close though, definently possible!!

Actually, that's right in line with my estimates; I'd just forgotten that the fiscal year ends at the end of March, not the start.

I think it will come close and not pass it or it will pass it by a longshot and double the record all depending on how Nintendo navigates through the next years.