snowdog said:
AbbathTheGrim said:
snowdog said:
Before the end of the calendar year the Wii U will have an installed userbase between 10m and 15m. Guaranteed.
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Guaranteed? Be careful, someone that likes bets could take this one.
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It'll do 10m easy as long as 3D Mario and Mario Kart 8 in particular release before Black Friday.
It's sold around 3m so far, should do another 3m at least between now and November and should do 4m between November and the end of the year, even without a price cut.
What's going to be more interesting is whether analysts, gaming journalists and forum members will start harping on about Sony and Microsoft going third party when the more expensive PS4 and 720 have worse launches in terms of sales than the Wii U.
Sony have made a huge mistake in opting for 8GB of GDDR5 and a GPU pushing 1.8TFlops, and if the rumours are true about the 720 needing to be always online and not being able to play used games then both the PS4 and 720 could struggle to sell, particularly after Christmas and the New Year.
If the Wii U has the $50 price cut I think it's going to have then we could be looking at the Wii U retailing for $249.99/$299.99, the PS4 retailing for (imo) $449.99/$499.99 and the 720 for $399.99/$449.99 and the Wii U having the advantage of a bigger software library (assuming that neither the PS4 and 720 have backwards compatibility).
Sony in particular could be in BIG trouble this gen.
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Those are a lot of assumptions you are trying to get for granted. You are not considering the impressive way that the PS3 has sold in spite of its horrible starting price and deny the strength of the Playstation brand. You are taking for granted that Sony and Micro will have worst launches than the WiiU. You don't even know the details those consoles' launch.
You are not taking in consideration how more expensive consoles have sold better than cheaper ones which renders your argument that WiiU's lower price would help them somehow. If people are not interested in the WiiU they won't buy it just because it is cheap. The price of the Dreamcast was way low compared to PS2 launch and it didn't stop PS2 from dominating in sells.
Why are the PS4 specs a huge mistake and why do you take it for granted?
The launch Mario game was the follow up to one of the best selling Marios of all time and it sells have not been anything extraordinary, especially in comparison with its predecesor. I feel that a lot of the games that sold all those insane amount of millions rode the popularity wave of the Wii and it's Sport & Fit popular games. The Wii's 3D Mario did not sell nowhere nears what the Wii's 2D Mario sold, and what has the succesor of 2D Mario in the WiiU sold? Again, don't be surpirse to see successful games of the Wii and their WiiU sequel underperforming in comparison to their predecessors.
I am pretty sure that this generation will be either Micro or Sony's to take, unless WiiU pulls a miracle. If the Playstation ever dies, I rather keep seeing its incredible first party games continued somewhere else.