Max King of the Wild said:
osed125 said:
Max King of the Wild said: I'll post this again in here for those who missed it:
Nintendo shipped 3million in Wii U's first quarter... respectable number actually... till you realize Nintendo realizes they overshipped and didn't meet their expectations on top of that so they lower their estimates to 4mil total after it's second quarter... so 1 million in 3 months...
Possible? Well considering Wii U only sold 120k in 2 months and will sell similarly in it's 3rd month then in US alone it will sell a measly 180k in 3 months. Add Mexico and Canada you get 200k... We know Europe is worse than NA and Japan due to Nintendo's own financials. VGC has it at 90k with another 4 weeks left... VGC has it selling 6k a week... so add another 40k for the next for weeks and you get 130k for Europe.... 330k in 2 markets. Now for Japan, famitsu and mediacrete have it selling at 173k and another 4 weeks till end of quarter. So add 40k and you get 213k in Japan... Nintendo will sell less than 543k at it's current pace. Even if games raise I don't see it being much more than another 50k...
Now, considering Nintendo will ship less than they sell to reduce the overstock from Holiday sales they will probably miss their revised shipment by about 400k.
So in the first half woth of fiscal year the Wii U is on the market Nintendo will ship about 3.6mil and sell through about 2.6mil (Which is funny because this is what VGC has it at right now... Which I'm assuming is from them overtracking NA by 200k in Dec.
Now, how much will it sell in it's second half of the year? Bet it's less than 2.6mil. Wii U will sell less than 5mil by Sept.
Now people really expect Mario, which has always been popular since it's inception, will increase it's sales by how much? Let's be realistic here. The Wii U will not touch the Wii on any level. Why do I expect Wii U to go back to pre-Wii levels? Well because that's really Nintendo's market cap. The Wii captured a new audience which won't be back to any system this gen. Wii U will be lucky to reach NES level of sales. Especially when you realize it's tracking below Nintendo's weakest system to date. |
You do realize that almost all consoles (PS3, Vita, 360, 3DS) underpreforms their first year? So your logic applies to pretty much every single console in history. When I think about it the only exceptions where companies didn't lowered their estimates during their first year were the PS2 and the Wii.
@bold: Would you please link to poster actually saying the Wii U will sell the same numbers as the Wii? Every since the Wii U announcement I have only seen like 2 or 3 poster saying that the system will sell the same. Every sane person here (including Nintendo fans) know the system will never touch Wii numbers (unless a miracle happens).
Also you haven't respond the question as to why MK 7 and Mario 3D Land sold so well (and are still selling).
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I said it won't even come close to the Wii's sales. I didn't say people were claiming it would match Wii's sales. But people have said (less so now with reality sinking in) that the Wii U will sell well being close to matching the Wii's sales. I don't think I need to trudge through last years threads to find any.
Also, yeah... Ps3 and 360 sold about 5million their first year on the market. I was really being generous saying under 5mil for the Wii U... more likely than not it will be closer to 3.8mil. I just wanted to leave some breathing room for myself. I never said my logic didn't apply to those systems but it doesn't mean the Wii U is fine right now. And the Wii U is not suffering from either of the problems the 360 and Ps3 suffered from. High price, Japan not wanting 360, and supply constrained
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Like I mentioned before all consoles suffer from 1 big thing: no games. Keep in mind the Wii U already has the record of longest time without a new game release (finally Lego and Monster Hunter will launch this week), so obviously the system will have a heavy drop, we will see if only 2 games are able to make the system sell (hint: they won't).
The 360 may have been on supply constraints but I highly doubt those "constraints" lasted one whole year (the system finally started to pick up with Gears of Wars), same with the PS3 (the one that help the system was MGS4).
Like I already said, if Mario Kart nor 3D Mario don't help the system then we will know for sure the system will share the same faith as the N64 and GC, that won't happen imo because those games are very popular (I start to sound like a broke record here).
Also no way the system will sell less than 4m during it's first year (unless Nintendo is stupid enough to not release their big guns this year).