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Forums - Sony - Rumour: Final Fantasy XIII Versus will be a PS4 exclusive, budget will be 120m+

Max King of the Wild on 18 March 2013
osed125 said:
Max King of the Wild said:
osed125 said:
Max King of the Wild said:
Also, I'd like to add that FF13 was crap game and I would like to believe that the next FF (which this rumor claims to be) would do much better in terms of sales in Japan like the series usually does.

What makes you think this one won't be crap? Doesn't look like it, but FF XIII also looked good on trailers and demos and it end up sucking. You simple can't be sure the game will be amazing until you have it in your hands, especially when SE has such a bad record.



You don't know much about Versus do you? From their anouncements I've seen more people excited for this one more than FF13.

So? that doesn't mean the game will be good. Sure, it will sell well during it's first week but after that when gamers start hearing that the game sucks (plus the reviews) then those gamers will not buy the game. Similar to what zarx said where FF XIII sold 1.4m units first week and then 170k second week. The hype for this games (if it's bad) will only last for 1 week, after that the sales will drop down heavily. 

Keep in mind I'm not saying the game will suck, but given Square's record plus the extremely long development time (this most of the times hurts games in one way or another) we can't warranty the game will be good.

the 1.4mil -> 170k wasn't because of hype lasting one week. That's just how FF titles perform in Japan... that's why I say I think it could do better because that was a week FW sales comparatively. Even if the game is bad I still think it could do better than FF13 because like you said hype would only last a week... and within the first 24 hours FF titles usually sell 1.2mil or more.



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radiantshadow92 on 18 March 2013

if it was multiplat i would believe it but only on ps4? gtfo lol...then again we are talking bout SE



Max King of the Wild on 18 March 2013

http://kotaku.com/5429389/final-fantasy-xiiis-first+day-sales-numbers-are-in

First day game sold "over 1 million not including bundles"



zarx on 18 March 2013
Max King of the Wild said:

Did I forget that? 50-120mil WW means 10-20mil in Japan... so they break even with entire development and Japans marketing in Japan alone and the rest of the world just needs to cover marketing. That rule of thumb is the most retarded thing I've heard. The rule of thumb is have your economist do a function of costs and find the optimal cost to maximize return. There is a rule of deminishing returns that says at certain point more marketing would just mean your spending more money.

I may have over exagerated the length it would take but the majority (95%) of those 1.9mil were at full price (obviously you just need to look at FW compared to total) so that means 95mil in Japan alone. Left to make up ~50mil in the rest of the world which would be a piece of cake.


I read it in an article writen by a guy that was in the industry a few years ago, it seems to hold up from what I have seen from actual budget numbers that have been released for example http://digitalbattle.com/2007/02/03/capcom-spent-20-million-on-lost-planet-marketing/. generally the bigger the game the greater percentage of your total budget will be marketing, COD: MW2 had a production budget of ~$40-50m and marketing budget of ~$200m for example http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2009/11/-video-game-call-of-duty-modern-warfare-2-gets-hollywoodscale-launch.html. Tim Schafer also claims marketing budget often being 200% of the production budget http://www.cinemablend.com/games/Tim-Schafer-Compares-Past-Video-Game-Budgets-Current-Budgets-39474.html. 



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ironmanDX on 18 March 2013
badgenome said:
ironmanDX said:

Sorry, but you're way, way off there. Even though more consoles sold this gen, look at Final Fantasy sales through all the generations.

So... you're agreeing with me that install base doesn't really matter, then?

ironmanDX said:

There is only 2 in the top 10. One of them is on a handheld. In fact, the top 3 alone beat out FFXIII combined on ps3 and 360. There was a golden era. They sold more because they were better in most peoples minds, a lot newer and fresher to people who haven't played JRPG's before either. Nearly 10,000,000 sales for VII on ps1 is niche? That would make CoD niche or Halo, or basically every game ever apart from Mario on NES which sold a whopping 40 million copies.

I didn't say that Final Fantasy was niche. I said that JRPGs are. Final Fantasy is the exception, a single franchise in the genre that managed to gain mass market appeal. You ought not to conflate its decline, which is entirely due to mismanagement, with the decline of the entire genre. The genre is not in decline; Final Fantasy is.

So... you're agreeing with me that install base doesn't really matter, then?

For this gen maybe. It does matter. I'm not going to buy Uncharted for my 360 am I? You can't buy a game for a console you don't have. Comparing the ps1 and ps2 to what the ps4 will do is foolish. The market and world is a lot different now. JRPG's are the same.

I didn't say that Final Fantasy was niche. I said that JRPGs are. Final Fantasy is the exception.

You're contradicting yourself. Final Fantasy are a part of JRPG's as a whole.

http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=legend+of+dragoon

Legend of Dragoon. About 2 million sales. Hardly niche.

http://www.vgchartz.com/game/2182/star-ocean-till-the-end-of-time/

Star Ocean. Again nearly 2 million. Again hardly niche.

http://www.vgchartz.com/game/360/chrono-cross/

Chrono Cross. Nearly another 2 million in sales. That is 3 games from the top of my head that I remember playing or my friends playing. There was a Golden era, I was there. This year I played Lost Odyssey on the 360, the first jrpg I'd played in years... Friends I know who played jrpg's like me n longer do or it is a rare occurrence like me. If you still play them, it probably just feels like they're still as popular as they ever were. Sales I've shown indicate otherwise. Especially when stacked on top of the Final Fantasy sales too.



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Max King of the Wild on 18 March 2013
zarx said:
Max King of the Wild said:

Did I forget that? 50-120mil WW means 10-20mil in Japan... so they break even with entire development and Japans marketing in Japan alone and the rest of the world just needs to cover marketing. That rule of thumb is the most retarded thing I've heard. The rule of thumb is have your economist do a function of costs and find the optimal cost to maximize return. There is a rule of deminishing returns that says at certain point more marketing would just mean your spending more money.

I may have over exagerated the length it would take but the majority (95%) of those 1.9mil were at full price (obviously you just need to look at FW compared to total) so that means 95mil in Japan alone. Left to make up ~50mil in the rest of the world which would be a piece of cake.


I read it in an article writen by a guy that was in the industry a few years ago, it seems to hold up from what I have seen from actual budget numbers that have been released for example http://digitalbattle.com/2007/02/03/capcom-spent-20-million-on-lost-planet-marketing/. generally the bigger the game the greater percentage of your total budget will be marketing, COD: MW2 had a production budget of ~$40-50m and marketing budget of ~$200m for example http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2009/11/-video-game-call-of-duty-modern-warfare-2-gets-hollywoodscale-launch.html. Tim Schafer also claims marketing budget often being 200% of the production budget http://www.cinemablend.com/games/Tim-Schafer-Compares-Past-Video-Game-Budgets-Current-Budgets-39474.html. 

If true, it would explain why a lot of studios are going south dont cha think? There is no reason to market it that much. At a certain point you just spending more money then you could possibly make back.



osed125 on 18 March 2013
Max King of the Wild said:
zarx said:
Max King of the Wild said:

Did I forget that? 50-120mil WW means 10-20mil in Japan... so they break even with entire development and Japans marketing in Japan alone and the rest of the world just needs to cover marketing. That rule of thumb is the most retarded thing I've heard. The rule of thumb is have your economist do a function of costs and find the optimal cost to maximize return. There is a rule of deminishing returns that says at certain point more marketing would just mean your spending more money.

I may have over exagerated the length it would take but the majority (95%) of those 1.9mil were at full price (obviously you just need to look at FW compared to total) so that means 95mil in Japan alone. Left to make up ~50mil in the rest of the world which would be a piece of cake.


I read it in an article writen by a guy that was in the industry a few years ago, it seems to hold up from what I have seen from actual budget numbers that have been released for example http://digitalbattle.com/2007/02/03/capcom-spent-20-million-on-lost-planet-marketing/. generally the bigger the game the greater percentage of your total budget will be marketing, COD: MW2 had a production budget of ~$40-50m and marketing budget of ~$200m for example http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2009/11/-video-game-call-of-duty-modern-warfare-2-gets-hollywoodscale-launch.html. Tim Schafer also claims marketing budget often being 200% of the production budget http://www.cinemablend.com/games/Tim-Schafer-Compares-Past-Video-Game-Budgets-Current-Budgets-39474.html. 

If true, it would explain why a lot of studios are going south dont cha think? There is no reason to market it that much. At a certain point you just spending more money then you could possibly make back.

If you don't market the game, it won't sell, it's as simple as that. Free forms of marketing (like Facebook for example) are not enough to make people know about your game. High budget games and marketing go hand in hand, one can't live without the other. That's why very few games end up being successful. 

In the case of Activision, CoD makes them so much money that they can afford to lose a few millions marketing other games, but very few companies are able to do that. 



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Max King of the Wild on 18 March 2013
osed125 said:
Max King of the Wild said:
zarx said:
Max King of the Wild said:

Did I forget that? 50-120mil WW means 10-20mil in Japan... so they break even with entire development and Japans marketing in Japan alone and the rest of the world just needs to cover marketing. That rule of thumb is the most retarded thing I've heard. The rule of thumb is have your economist do a function of costs and find the optimal cost to maximize return. There is a rule of deminishing returns that says at certain point more marketing would just mean your spending more money.

I may have over exagerated the length it would take but the majority (95%) of those 1.9mil were at full price (obviously you just need to look at FW compared to total) so that means 95mil in Japan alone. Left to make up ~50mil in the rest of the world which would be a piece of cake.


I read it in an article writen by a guy that was in the industry a few years ago, it seems to hold up from what I have seen from actual budget numbers that have been released for example http://digitalbattle.com/2007/02/03/capcom-spent-20-million-on-lost-planet-marketing/. generally the bigger the game the greater percentage of your total budget will be marketing, COD: MW2 had a production budget of ~$40-50m and marketing budget of ~$200m for example http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2009/11/-video-game-call-of-duty-modern-warfare-2-gets-hollywoodscale-launch.html. Tim Schafer also claims marketing budget often being 200% of the production budget http://www.cinemablend.com/games/Tim-Schafer-Compares-Past-Video-Game-Budgets-Current-Budgets-39474.html. 

If true, it would explain why a lot of studios are going south dont cha think? There is no reason to market it that much. At a certain point you just spending more money then you could possibly make back.

If you don't market the game, it won't sell, it's as simple as that. Free forms of marketing (like Facebook for example) are not enough to make people know about your game. High budget games and marketing go hand in hand, one can't live without the other. That's why very few games end up being successful. 

In the case of Activision, CoD makes them so much money that they can afford to lose a few millions marketing other games, but very few companies are able to do that. 

That still doesn't mean it is a good business move. And you say activision can do that. SE can not though. They are already in trouble. And like I said, at a certain point of marketing your game you won't get any extra sales. The idea is to find the point that maximizes profit. Which would not be doubling your development budget.



osed125 on 18 March 2013
Max King of the Wild said:
osed125 said:

 

If you don't market the game, it won't sell, it's as simple as that. Free forms of marketing (like Facebook for example) are not enough to make people know about your game. High budget games and marketing go hand in hand, one can't live without the other. That's why very few games end up being successful. 

In the case of Activision, CoD makes them so much money that they can afford to lose a few millions marketing other games, but very few companies are able to do that. 

 

That still doesn't mean it is a good business move. And you say activision can do that. SE can not though. They are already in trouble. And like I said, at a certain point of marketing your game you won't get any extra sales. The idea is to find the point that maximizes profit. Which would not be doubling your development budget.

Publishers are afraid that if they don't market their game it won't sell (which in reality is true). There's no other option, they prefer to take the risk and hope for the best rather than just seeing your game die because of no marketing. 

The budgets are getting out of control and if that doesn't change we will see more THQ's in the future.



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Weedlab on 18 March 2013

I'm interested in seeing what would happen if this game was really a PS4 exclusive, especially those who are doubting it.. Do people consider it a 'system seller' though?



 

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