Watch Sony release the console at the perfect price point, have everyone prepared to kick everyones ass next gen,
and not manufacture enough units to be #1

Obviously this is only a guess knowing nothing about nextbox and with WiiU not hitting its main games and not knowing the price of 2 of the systems, but I believe so. It's only logical. They can only go up from this gen if you think about it. They launched a year late compared to MS (competing for the same market), were overshadowed by Wii at launch, were severely undercut (half price) by their competitors, had a difficult architecture resulting in many first partys being delayed and third parties being inferior, and hardly had online to speak of at the beginning of the gen.

Fast forward to this gen. They've got a nice easy architecture that packs a punch. They're launching near nextbox if not before. They're probably going to be close in price ($50 or even $100 wouldn't be as severe as last time). Their first parties are ready (many haven't made a game for 2+ years and 2 big ones will likely be there at launch). They have quite the online suite from what they've shown along with the world's best cloud company under their wing (can help with more than just streaming with their infrastructure and expertise in online distribution).

These factors should not be counted as always separate either. Once everyone heard the price of PS3 and Xbox was out with your friend already having it, what were you going to buy? It's amazing that PS3 will be second (if not first) this gen given that it effectively gave no reason for anyone to buy one until holiday 07 (Uncharted and R&C) and no system selling exclusives until 08 (MGS4). If they have superior specs to MS or are the same price because of super Kinect then that's just icing on the cake. If MS couldn't win this gen, I don't see how they could logically win ANY gen unless they were given a $300 advantage and/or a 2 year head start.

The fanboyism burns my eyes.

don't count Nintendo out yet.  Mario Kart, 3D Mario, and Zelda...not to mention Wii Fit U haven't come yet.  I imagine it'll get its sales (about 70m lifetime I think) and have better legs than Wii if they get their software right and support it till the end.

Wow a guy with a Halo pic says this.  The hype is strong with this console (not calling you a fanboy or anything just pointing something out).

I agree hopefully Sony doesn't get arrogant and I'm getting 2 day 1 (selling 1 to help pay for some more stuff).

It's incredibly premature, after this holiday we will see for sure.

I don't see Nintendo doing it, because they are really not focused on a single market this gen, and that will hurt them, but I wouldn't write off the Wii U until after this holiday.

PS4 is making some great moves, but price and games are the only things that matter in this industry. If it has a good price, and many of the games shown are ready at launch, then it could do very well.

Nextbox, I think this could suffer. Believe it or not, I believe that Microsoft made some really poor decisions that left a lot of gamers angry, and if any of their new rumored policies come into affect, then they will lose to Sony.

After this holiday we will see what's what.

If the ps4 is priced at 399$-449$, they should easily win nextgen, europe is still sony land, in japan ps4 should do much better, then ps3, cause of the price and wiiu is not dominating the market like wii, now we have the US this will almost be impossibe to beat microsoft but as long as they stay close, they will win nextgen.

I think it all depends on price. Both xbox and playstation brands are equally known and perceived by consumers so for the majority if there both available at the same time will come down to price

It will sell more than the PS1, PS2, PS3, PSP, and PSV combined! However TICTACBOX will sell over 2 billion so no. PS4 will be a distant third.

I'd say yes, but it's just too early to say: the Nextbox is too much of a mystery, and the Wii U is still finding its feet.