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Forums - Sales - Wii U Gets Games - Will Sales Go UP?

 

New Games will make Wii U sales go...

Up a little. 12-15k a week in March. 85 35.56%
 
Up a lot. 15-20k. 50 20.92%
 
Way up! 20k+. The winter drought is over!! 53 22.18%
 
No impact. 10k. 35 14.64%
 
WiiDuuumed! Sales going down... 16 6.69%
 
Total:239
the_dengle said:

None of the March releases are "omg need that console now" games except for a very few people. Momemtum will build up slowly through the spring and summer. Fall will be great, though.

(Also, I think Wii U sales are undertracked in America, which we'll find out about in a few days with the NPD report. If I'm right, it was already closer to the 15k mark through February.)

I seem to remember that WiiU was overtracked in the US during last NPD. Not sure if the chances are good for your February prediction.


OT: Sales will certainly see some spikes during MH3U and Lego release. Not sure what games follow in April, but I guess it won't be able to hold those sales.



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The sales will only start to rise when the big guns come out. Pikmin 3? Not a big gun. Zelda Re-Make? Hm... not really a big gun. Mario Kart U? Freaking huge gun.
When we get Mario Kart U/3D Mario U the sales will really start to pull up. Every other game will have an affect on sales, but nothing permanent. They don't have that much staying power.



Mummelmann said:

Walking Dead might be good games but they have sold very, very poorly, all the episodes combined have managed an estimated 1.5 million or so divided on three platforms, hardly a massive series by anyone's count.


Where did you get that from ?
It's at 8.5m episodes, ~2.1m of that on iOS, so 6.4m sold between Mac, Windows, PS3 and Xbox360

http://www.g4tv.com/thefeed/blog/post/729887/the-walking-dead-sales-climb-to-85-million/

XBLA sales estimated at 2.6m
http://fadellc.com/xbox-live-arcade-sees-incredible-growth-in-2012-thanks-to-minecraft-and-more-releases/



On the other hand this is a completely different Walking Dead game and I expect it to bomb on all platforms.



Michael-5 said:
Roma said:
I don't think the games mentioned in the first paragraph will do much to increase teh sales

as for Wii Fit U it might give it a boost but the price is not right for the casual audience yet so the game won't do much for the system

Pikmin 3 will give it a small boost, Wonderful 101 is a new franchise that looks like it will be very niche so it will probably not do anything for the system.

honestly we need to wait until after E3 to see what sales might look like based on the games announced there

What about

Dragon Quest X

It releases in Japan this month, and Dragon Quest X is huge in Japan. Didn't it boost Wii sales by 300% that one week? They did, Wii went from selling just over 10k weekly (what WiiU is doing now) to about 42k after Dragon Quest released, and then it stabilized at 15k weekly for a while.

Yea that boost will go away in a month, but Japan might stabilize 5-10k a week higher and stick above PS3.

---

As for the rest of the world, there will be a small 5-10k rise because of Lego and Monster Hunter, but I don't think Wii U sales will pick up until June. Pikmin 3 and Wonderful 101 aren't "must buy console" for games, but they are great games, and they will still be that first good game which people need before they buy a console. After all people won't buy a console unless there is a game they like, and not all of us like New Super Mario Bros.

So sales will be up slightly overall in March, and it might stabilize at a higher point because now Wii U will have a small library of games to choose from. However we won't see big jumps until June-August when bigger titles like Pikmin 3, Wonderful 101 and Wind Waker release, and until we see footage of Mario Kart and Smash Bros at E3.


You're right, I didn't list DQX, and it's a Japan only, and it only comes out at the very end of March, but it's the biggest potential system mover, especially since it's bundled.  It could move tens of thousands of machines, which is significant when you look at how small Wii U sales have been. That title could spur interest in Japan.



Barozi said:
Mummelmann said:

Walking Dead might be good games but they have sold very, very poorly, all the episodes combined have managed an estimated 1.5 million or so divided on three platforms, hardly a massive series by anyone's count.


Where did you get that from ?
It's at 8.5m episodes, ~2.1m of that on iOS, so 6.4m sold between Mac, Windows, PS3 and Xbox360

http://www.g4tv.com/thefeed/blog/post/729887/the-walking-dead-sales-climb-to-85-million/

XBLA sales estimated at 2.6m
http://fadellc.com/xbox-live-arcade-sees-incredible-growth-in-2012-thanks-to-minecraft-and-more-releases/



On the other hand this is a completely different Walking Dead game and I expect it to bomb on all platforms.

Whoa!

The source I used was apparently Europe only and PS3/360/PC only. My bad.



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Mummelmann said:

Pikmin is among the smaller Nintendo franchises and sold incredibly tiny numbers compared to their other hitters, managing only 0.4 and 0.6 million on the Wii.
Pikmin 3 will at best be an obscure thing that moves a few hundred thousand.

Both of the Wii Pikmin titles were rereleases. The original titles both sold over a million -- and on GameCube no less. Pikmin 3 won't be monumental, but it'll be much bigger than you're making it out to be.



What games released on both PS360 in 2013, so far, that did not come out on WiiU?

Tomb Raider.

Q1 is slow for everyone people. Its just 1000x worse for a new console as it doesn't have the backlog to fall on. WiiU has decent 3rd party support along with quality Nintendo games coming as well.

March and onward is the beginning of steady games for WiiU and a good variety. That will clearly be on display come E3.

March WiiU:
LEGO City Undercover (exclusive)
NFS Most Wanted (multi)
Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate (exclusive)
The Walking Dead (multi)

Along with some eShop titles and movie tie-ins.

Only games its missing that PS360 are getting is Tiger Woods and Bioshock. EA is obviously blacklisting WiiU and Bioshock was too far into development to be thrown to a new platform.

So far the only publishers that are showing no signs of support are EA, who has a personal issue with Nintendo, and RockStar who also seems uninterested at this point in general. Their stance may just be that the games so far were too far into development and didn't want to add resources or money for a small/new platform. Meaning its next series of games for "next-gen" will be on WiiU as well.

WiiU is fine. It will rebound as the year ends and its library comes full circle.



TheLastStarFighter said:
Michael-5 said:

What about

Dragon Quest X

It releases in Japan this month, and Dragon Quest X is huge in Japan. Didn't it boost Wii sales by 300% that one week? They did, Wii went from selling just over 10k weekly (what WiiU is doing now) to about 42k after Dragon Quest released, and then it stabilized at 15k weekly for a while.

Yea that boost will go away in a month, but Japan might stabilize 5-10k a week higher and stick above PS3.

---

As for the rest of the world, there will be a small 5-10k rise because of Lego and Monster Hunter, but I don't think Wii U sales will pick up until June. Pikmin 3 and Wonderful 101 aren't "must buy console" for games, but they are great games, and they will still be that first good game which people need before they buy a console. After all people won't buy a console unless there is a game they like, and not all of us like New Super Mario Bros.

So sales will be up slightly overall in March, and it might stabilize at a higher point because now Wii U will have a small library of games to choose from. However we won't see big jumps until June-August when bigger titles like Pikmin 3, Wonderful 101 and Wind Waker release, and until we see footage of Mario Kart and Smash Bros at E3.


You're right, I didn't list DQX, and it's a Japan only, and it only comes out at the very end of March, but it's the biggest potential system mover, especially since it's bundled.  It could move tens of thousands of machines, which is significant when you look at how small Wii U sales have been. That title could spur interest in Japan.

A stabilization at 15k over 10k is a 50% weekly gain. Dragon Quest X is Japan only (for now), but its sales will build momentum. By E3 I can see the Wii U consistanly topping all other home platforms with DQX, Pikmin 3, Wii Fit U, and Wonderful 101 in Japan.

Lego will help in Americas, but I don't see much gorwth until Pikmin 3 and Wind Waker. Same with Europe.



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the_dengle said:
Mummelmann said:

Pikmin is among the smaller Nintendo franchises and sold incredibly tiny numbers compared to their other hitters, managing only 0.4 and 0.6 million on the Wii.
Pikmin 3 will at best be an obscure thing that moves a few hundred thousand.

Both of the Wii Pikmin titles were rereleases. The original titles both sold over a million -- and on GameCube no less. Pikmin 3 won't be monumental, but it'll be much bigger than you're making it out to be.


It will? I guess we'll have to see. There's nothing to suggest that it will sell as much as the GC versions, the popularity and attach rates of Nintendo franchises are hard to determine, for instance Super Mario 64 sold almost 12 million, an insane attach rate and more than Super Mario Galaxy despite the Wii's massive installed base advantage. In fact, Galaxy 2 is even farther down, at almost 4 million behind the original, despite massively good reviews, even bigger installed base, the popularity of the first one and having had almost three years to sell.

With the Wii U bound to have a lot smaller installed base and the varying degrees of popularity of various franchises, there's no basis for saying that Pikmin will sell over 1 million, for instance, I find it more likely that the smaller Nintendo franchises won't suddenly flare up and grow for no reason. Resident Evil 4: Wii Edition sold about 500k more than Resident Evil 4 on Gamecube and this is a remake as well.

When you say so yourself that remakes and re-releases aren't that significant, what does that say when the Wii U is basically going to have to live off of very late ports and a Zelda remake through the foreseeable future? There's trouble abound, Pikmin is just one splash in the ocean of woes the Wii U is facing now and in the coming year, I'm afraid.



Sure, as soon as good games pop up the system will sell just fine. I predict 35-45 million lifetime.