| superchunk said: Did you actually click the link? January showed a 26% drop alone. By E3 the PS3 will be closer to 40% drop YOY and that will not improve with the holidays. EDIT: BTW you're not the first to make that prediction... LeoJ made this prediction years ago. |
| pezus said: Doesn't look too different from my prediction. I'd say at least 95m though, with a slight chance of hitting 100m with some aggressive pricing + GT6. |
Well the one thing I think I may be wrong in is the date of being discontinued. Sony may push for true 10yr and support it until very early 2017. That would only add maybe another 3m to my total though... so ~96-98m is doable.
Granted, this is FAR higher than my initial thoughts in 2008 when I pegged both PS360 at dying around 60m. Oh how things change when 3rd parties decide to ignore a market leader.
ethomaz said:
VGC shows PS3 20% down / 360 30% down for 2012... in fact the confirmed drop is 10% and 20%. |
confirmed by whom? Until Sony puts out a real shipped figure in April... VGC is just as legit at an estimation as anyone else. Interesting part is every time Sony puts out a quarterly statement, VGC is well within shipped vs sold ranges.
So many numbers...how can you people analyze all this data? I'm seriously at a loss here (Mainly because I don't understand the difference that makes shipped sold)
| superchunk said: confirmed by whom? Until Sony puts out a real shipped figure in April... VGC is just as legit at an estimation as anyone else. Interesting part is every time Sony puts out a quarterly statement, VGC is well within shipped vs sold ranges. |
| Wright said: So many numbers...how can you people analyze all this data? I'm seriously at a loss here (Mainly because I don't understand the difference that makes shipped <> sold) |
Sony/Ms/Nintendo/Apple/Samsung/insert company name ... all creates a product and then "sells" it to a retailer. When they report to investors how many units they sold... they base it on this figure and thus report "sold units".
However, that is not truly "sold" as its merely a deliver point to the consumer. So tracking firms like VGC report this as "shipped".
The retailer then actually sells the product to the consumer and now it can be considered as "sold"... this is what NPD, VGC, and others report as sold.
superchunk said:
However, that is not trully "sold" as its mearly a deliver point to the consumer. So tracking firms like VGC report this as "shipped". The retailer then actaully sells the product to the consumer and now it can be considered as "sold"... this is what NPD, VGC, and others report as sold. |
Oh, I see. Thanks for the explanation. Everything seems more clear now :3
To add more data for my points... VGC are showing a YOY drop way bigger than what it really are.
2011 European Sales by Nintendo
PS3 ~ 4.9 M
Wii ~ 4.0 M
360 ~ 3.7 M
3DS ~ 3.5 M
NDS ~ 3.0 M
PSP ~ 2.3 M
2012 European Sales by Nintendo
PS3 - 4,343,000 (-11%)
360 - 3,015,000 (-19%)
WII - 2,042,000 (-49%)
3DS - 3,608,000 (+2%)
PSP - 1,768,000 (-21%)
DS - 619,500 (-79%)
2012 European YOY Sales by VGC
PS3 (-18%)
3DS (+8%)
X360 (-29%)
Wii (-56%)
PSV (-56%)
DS (-68%)
PSP (-57%)
WiiU (-57%)
It can, but I think it would hurt the ps4 if it did.
pezus said:
You don't say, Zane. Can you now tell us what you think the final totals will be for all 3? Or only PS3 if you prefer |
Has good old, ZaneWane, ever replied when someone has asked him a question?
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