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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - #1 Retail Game On EShop! Speculation to Why Fire Emblem Sold Over 350k

 

Does My Speculation Work Out That FE Awakening has over 100k Downloads?

Yes It makes Perfect Sense 35 36.84%
 
Its seems like a good arguement 20 21.05%
 
Somewhat effective 10 10.53%
 
Not Really getting your Speculation 11 11.58%
 
Srry Nope 19 20.00%
 
Total:95
tbone51 on 24 February 2013
the_dengle said:
tbone51 said:

thank you for understanding! Only a very few people gets my theory. Lets just say 5% rated games (2 more percent of the highest in Europe). That means Excite Bike here with 23k reviews is around 460k!!! OMFG O.o See why i said this and FE awakening surpassed it over a week ago. Im telling you this game will hit not just a mil, but over 2mil imo

It is a bit more complicated than that, which is why we can't take anything for granted. For instance, the average rating/purchase ratio might be dramatically different for physical and digital purchases. Suppose about 1% of people who purchased NSMB2 physically rated the game in the eShop, while perhaps those who purchased digitally rated about 10% of the time. With no way to track digital sales, it's impossible to predict the relationship.

Additionally, the length of time since a game's release could have a strong impact on ratings. Consider that Excite Bike 3D (#14 in 3DS software), one of the first titles available through the eShop, has some three times as many ratings as Pokémon Dream Radar, the #1 game in the 3DS software chart, released just a few months ago. So, the rating/purchase ratio seems to be much higher as games have been available longer. For all we know, Excite Bike could have a ratio above 50%.

It's not as straightforward as I'd like it to be. I do agree that Fire Emblem is performing phenomenally on the eShop, but I don't want to try to attach a solid number to its digital sales. There are too many variables.



i get ya, it really does suck with no number lol, lets not forget it passed NSMB2 and is now the best selling retail game on the eShop



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the_dengle on 24 February 2013
tbone51 said:

i get ya, it really does suck with no number lol, lets not forget it passed NSMB2 and is now the best selling retail game on the eShop

I won't forget that and I am very impressed.

If we want to establish a low-end estimate for eShop sales, our best bet is Gunman Clive. It's the only game we have any kind of sales numbers for. I'll do some math a little later, try to establish a decent range.



tbone51 on 24 February 2013
the_dengle said:
tbone51 said:

i get ya, it really does suck with no number lol, lets not forget it passed NSMB2 and is now the best selling retail game on the eShop

I won't forget that and I am very impressed.

If we want to establish a low-end estimate for eShop sales, our best bet is Gunman Clive. It's the only game we have any kind of sales numbers for. I'll do some math a little later, try to establish a decent range.



how many sales does it have and wen was it revealed?



the_dengle on 24 February 2013
tbone51 said:
the_dengle said:

If we want to establish a low-end estimate for eShop sales, our best bet is Gunman Clive. It's the only game we have any kind of sales numbers for. I'll do some math a little later, try to establish a decent range.

how many sales does it have and wen was it revealed?

It was not officially revealed, but the developer has revealed a sales range in a thread on Neogaf.

Unfortunately, I forgot that the figures provided in that thread emcompass both American and European sales, which makes them pretty useless for comparing with the region-specific eShop rankings.

However, if someone can provide the number of ratings Gunman Clive has in the European eShop, we can calculate a range for the game's ratings/purchases ratio... RPP (ratings per purchase) from now on because I'm lazy.

I won't go into the details now, but the combined sales range for Gunman Clive is 25k-50k. It has 1112 ratings in the American eShop. So we add its European ratings to that, divide the total by both 25k and 50k, and that's our RPP range. Possibly a useless figure, but we'll see if we can do anything with it once we actually have it.



tbone51 on 25 February 2013

US sales are (2nd week) at 40k, its funny cuz digital seems like its selling so much more



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Maris on 25 February 2013
tbone51 said:
US sales are (2nd week) at 40k, its funny cuz digital seems like its selling so much more

I think its because the shipments have been so small. Wasn't there a thread about how many stores have been out of stock?

Either way I think the game deserves every sale it gets. Its quickly become one of my favorite titles on the 3DS so far.



tbone51 on 25 February 2013
Maris said:
tbone51 said:
US sales are (2nd week) at 40k, its funny cuz digital seems like its selling so much more

I think its because the shipments have been so small. Wasn't there a thread about how many stores have been out of stock?

Either way I think the game deserves every sale it gets. Its quickly become one of my favorite titles on the 3DS so far.



FE!!!! with US sales last week this game has 730k but i really believe digital sales is now over 900k possibly 1mil



the_dengle on 16 March 2013

With our new information, it's time to revive this topic. Fire Emblem's US digital sales are now 100% confirmed by Nintendo -- 63,000.

What does this tell us? It tells us that the following titles have definitely sold more than 63k in the US:

• Donkey Kong
• Metroid II: Return of Samus
• Colors! 3D
• Cut the Rope
• 3D Classics: Kid Icarus
• Kirby's Dream Land
• Plants vs. Zombies
• Photo Dojo
• 3D Classics: Kirby's Adventure
• Mario vs. Donkey Kong: Minis March Again!
• Pushmo
• Super Mario Land
• Super Mario Land 2: 6 Golden Coins
• Super Mario Bros.
• Pokémon Dream Radar
• The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening DX

And it tells us that every other game available on the eShop, including Pokédex 3D Pro, New Super Mario Bros. 2, Mighty Switch Force!, Crashmo, and so forth, has fewer than 63k digital sales in the US at this time.

This also establishes a new "benchmark" in that future titles that pass Fire Emblem in the North American rankings must have sold at least 63,000 copies. This is a crucial figure going forward -- a solid data point, a real number, with which to compare the sales of all games in the North American eShop. The only such data we have at this time, as far as I'm aware.

tbone, I know you love starting new threads. ;) Do we have a thread solely dedicated to tracking and discussing eShop sales yet?



tbone51 on 16 March 2013
the_dengle said:

With our new information, it's time to revive this topic. Fire Emblem's US digital sales are now 100% confirmed by Nintendo -- 63,000.

What does this tell us? It tells us that the following titles have definitely sold more than 63k in the US:

• Donkey Kong
• Metroid II: Return of Samus
• Colors! 3D
• Cut the Rope
• 3D Classics: Kid Icarus
• Kirby's Dream Land
• Plants vs. Zombies
• Photo Dojo
• 3D Classics: Kirby's Adventure
• Mario vs. Donkey Kong: Minis March Again!
• Pushmo
• Super Mario Land
• Super Mario Land 2: 6 Golden Coins
• Super Mario Bros.
• Pokémon Dream Radar
• The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening DX

And it tells us that every other game available on the eShop, including Pokédex 3D Pro, New Super Mario Bros. 2, Mighty Switch Force!, Crashmo, and so forth, has fewer than 63k digital sales in the US at this time.

This also establishes a new "benchmark" in that future titles that pass Fire Emblem in the North American rankings must have sold at least 63,000 copies. This is a crucial figure going forward -- a solid data point, a real number, with which to compare the sales of all games in the North American eShop. The only such data we have at this time, as far as I'm aware.

tbone, I know you love starting new threads. ;) Do we have a thread solely dedicated to tracking and discussing eShop sales yet?



nope, but you made a good point, all those games/apps sold more than 63k! I cant believe how wrong i was though b4 -_-



the_dengle on 16 March 2013
tbone51 said:

nope, but you made a good point, all those games/apps sold more than 63k! I cant believe how wrong i was though b4 -_-

No worries, we had no scale by which to measure the game's sales except for VGChartz's heavily overtracked numbers.

That's why I want to make sure to make a note of this now -- in the future, we'll actually have a concrete number to compare other games to in the NA sales ranking.

PS do you ever sleep?