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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Investors Thread

OceanJ said:
Just to mix this thread up a bit and not be single-mindedly focused on numbers, here's a general question.

What do you think the single biggest announcement Nintendo could make, tomorrow, that would cause demand for the Wii U to skyrocket?

A price drop?
Zelda 2013 release date?
Anything?

Or is there no such thing as a single announcement that could do so.

Well they could "3DS" it if the system flounders for several months:

$80 price drop for Nintendo Land bundle (same as 3DS) to $269.99

$299.99 Wii Fit U bundle w/Balance Board (new white model)

Basic 8GB -- gone. 

Mario Kart U + 3D Mario for fall 2013. 

There's no chance in hell Zelda would be ready that quickly unless it's like a 4 Swords game, and even if it was, Mario Kart is a (far) bigger franchise. Mario Kart Wii alone has sold almost as much as the entire Zelda series on consoles from the NES-to-Wii. 



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Soundwave said:
OceanJ said:
Just to mix this thread up a bit and not be single-mindedly focused on numbers, here's a general question.

What do you think the single biggest announcement Nintendo could make, tomorrow, that would cause demand for the Wii U to skyrocket?

A price drop?
Zelda 2013 release date?
Anything?

Or is there no such thing as a single announcement that could do so.

Well they could "3DS" it if the system flounders for several months:

$80 price drop for Nintendo Land bundle (same as 3DS) to $269.99

$299.99 Wii Fit U bundle w/Balance Board (new white model)

Basic 8GB -- gone. 

Mario Kart U + 3D Mario for fall 2013. 

There's no chance in hell Zelda would be ready that quickly unless it's like a 4 Swords game, and even if it was, Mario Kart is a (far) bigger franchise. Mario Kart Wii alone has sold almost as much as the entire Zelda series on consoles from the NES-to-Wii. 

Umm, how is it that 33.33m for mario kart wii is "almost" as much as 70.68m. Mario kart it NOT a "far" bigger franchise than zelda. The mario kart franchise has sold 78m which 55m of these sales were sold during the wii and ds era which will NEVER happen again. Zelda is the second biggest mascot of nintendo wether you like it or not.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

benji232 said:
Soundwave said:
OceanJ said:
Just to mix this thread up a bit and not be single-mindedly focused on numbers, here's a general question.

What do you think the single biggest announcement Nintendo could make, tomorrow, that would cause demand for the Wii U to skyrocket?

A price drop?
Zelda 2013 release date?
Anything?

Or is there no such thing as a single announcement that could do so.

Well they could "3DS" it if the system flounders for several months:

$80 price drop for Nintendo Land bundle (same as 3DS) to $269.99

$299.99 Wii Fit U bundle w/Balance Board (new white model)

Basic 8GB -- gone. 

Mario Kart U + 3D Mario for fall 2013. 

There's no chance in hell Zelda would be ready that quickly unless it's like a 4 Swords game, and even if it was, Mario Kart is a (far) bigger franchise. Mario Kart Wii alone has sold almost as much as the entire Zelda series on consoles from the NES-to-Wii. 

Umm, how is it that 33.33m for mario kart wii is "almost" as much as 70.68m. Mario kart it NOT a "far" bigger franchise than zelda. The mario kart franchise has sold 78m which 55m of these sales were sold during the wii and ds era which will NEVER happen again. Zelda is the second biggest mascot of nintendo wether you like it or not.


Legend of Zelda (NES) - 6.51 million

Zelda II: Adventures of Link (NES) - 4.38 million

Zelda III: A Link to the Past (SNES) - 4.61 million

Zelda: Ocarina of Time (N64) - 7.61 million

Zelda: Majora's Mask (N64) - 3.36 million

Zelda: The Wind Waker (GCN) - 4.55 million

Zelda: Twilight Princess (Wii + GCN) - 4.77 + 1.56 million

Zelda: Skyward Sword (Wii) - 3.5 million

= 40.5 million (approx)

Mario Kart Wii

= 33 million (approx)

 

Mario Kart is actually Nintendo's most consistently big selling franchise period. Mario Kart is the 2nd highest selling SNES game of all time (non-bundled) after DKC. It's the 2nd highest selling N64 game of all time after Mario 64. It's the 2nd highest selling GCN game of all time after Smash Bros. Melee. It's the highest selling Wii game after Wii Sports. It's the third highest selling DS game of all time. 

So to say that it's just "boomed" overnight is pretty silly. Every Mario Kart on every Nintendo console has sold more than it's Zelda counterpart. By a pretty huge margin in most cases. 

Mario Kart 7 on 3DS is well on its way to hitting 10+ million, which would be the third straight Mario Kart game to get there, a barrier no Zelda game has come close to sniffing. 



A price drop alone will not create buzz. It needs games more than a lower price. The games that would do it? Any of the following: Mariokart, a visually stunning Mario, Zelda or a new IP, 'New' Legend of Zelda, GTA5, FFXV exclusive, some stunning new ip that uses the gamepad in an inovative way, something that links to 3DS in an awesome way, an MMO, some cool app on eshop that goes viral like angry bird, WiiSportsU. Any of these would work if well executed. I think some may come to pass soon.



It's not like has NO games. It has NSMBU which should be a big seller. It has Black Ops 2 which is the biggest third party game.

Jan-June 2013 does look weak though.

They need something, some kind of new breakout hit, they are riding Mario too hard with both the 3DS and Wii U and he's starting to get stale.

Iwata has not done a good job of building new IP for Nintendo which wasn't some kind of casual fad like Wii Sports/Fit/etc. As a result they have to keep milking Mario because it's the only thing they are relatively confident in moving hardware these days. 



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Soundwave said:
benji232 said:
Soundwave said:
OceanJ said:
Just to mix this thread up a bit and not be single-mindedly focused on numbers, here's a general question.

What do you think the single biggest announcement Nintendo could make, tomorrow, that would cause demand for the Wii U to skyrocket?

A price drop?
Zelda 2013 release date?
Anything?

Or is there no such thing as a single announcement that could do so.

Well they could "3DS" it if the system flounders for several months:

$80 price drop for Nintendo Land bundle (same as 3DS) to $269.99

$299.99 Wii Fit U bundle w/Balance Board (new white model)

Basic 8GB -- gone. 

Mario Kart U + 3D Mario for fall 2013. 

There's no chance in hell Zelda would be ready that quickly unless it's like a 4 Swords game, and even if it was, Mario Kart is a (far) bigger franchise. Mario Kart Wii alone has sold almost as much as the entire Zelda series on consoles from the NES-to-Wii. 

Umm, how is it that 33.33m for mario kart wii is "almost" as much as 70.68m. Mario kart it NOT a "far" bigger franchise than zelda. The mario kart franchise has sold 78m which 55m of these sales were sold during the wii and ds era which will NEVER happen again. Zelda is the second biggest mascot of nintendo wether you like it or not.


Legend of Zelda (NES) - 6.51 million

Zelda II: Adventures of Link (NES) - 4.38 million

Zelda III: A Link to the Past (SNES) - 4.61 million

Zelda: Ocarina of Time (N64) - 7.61 million

Zelda: Majora's Mask (N64) - 3.36 million

Zelda: The Wind Waker (GCN) - 4.55 million

Zelda: Twilight Princess (Wii + GCN) - 4.77 + 1.56 million

Zelda: Skyward Sword (Wii) - 3.5 million

= 40.5 million (approx)

Mario Kart Wii

= 33 million (approx)

 

Mario Kart is actually Nintendo's most consistently big selling franchise period. Mario Kart is the 2nd highest selling SNES game of all time (non-bundled) after DKC. It's the 2nd highest selling N64 game of all time after Mario 64. It's the 2nd highest selling GCN game of all time after Smash Bros. Melee. It's the highest selling Wii game after Wii Sports. It's the third highest selling DS game of all time. 

So to say that it's just "boomed" overnight is pretty silly. Every Mario Kart on every Nintendo console has sold more than it's Zelda counterpart. By a pretty huge margin in most cases. 

Mario Kart 7 on 3DS is well on its way to hitting 10+ million, which would be the third straight Mario Kart game to get there, a barrier no Zelda game has come close to sniffing. 

You mean this?

1 The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time N64 1998 Adventure Nintendo 4.10 1.89 1.45 0.16 7.60
2 The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess Wii 2006 Adventure Nintendo 3.54 1.93 0.60 0.65 6.72
3 The Legend of Zelda NES 1986 Adventure Nintendo 3.74 0.93 1.69 0.14 6.51
4 The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass DS 2007 Adventure Nintendo 1.79 1.74 0.95 0.47 4.95
5 The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past SNES 1991 Adventure Nintendo 2.42 0.91 1.15 0.13 4.61
6 The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker GC 2002 Adventure Nintendo 2.60 0.99 0.89 0.13 4.60
7 Zelda II: The Adventure of Link NES 1987 Adventure Nintendo 2.19 0.50 1.61 0.08 4.38
8 The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening GB 1992 Adventure Nintendo 2.21 0.96 0.54 0.13 3.83
9 The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword Wii 2011 Adventure Nintendo 1.83 1.07 0.36 0.33 3.59
10 The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask N64 2000 Adventure Nintendo 1.90 0.67 0.73 0.06 3.36
11 The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks DS 2009 Adventure Nintendo 1.34 0.82 0.74 0.26 3.16
12 The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3DS 2011 Adventure Nintendo 1.42 0.77 0.57 0.20 2.97
13 The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past GBA 2002 Adventure Nintendo 1.75 0.52 0.33 0.10 2.70
14 The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening DX GB 1998 Adventure Nintendo 1.00 0.63 0.45 0.13 2.22
15 The Legend of Zelda: Oracle of Ages GB 2001 Adventure Nintendo 0.92 0.53 0.41 0.06 1.92
16 The Legend of Zelda: Oracle of Seasons GB 2001 Adventure Nintendo 0.87 0.52 0.41 0.06 1.86
17 The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess GC 2006 Adventure Nintendo 1.15 0.36 0.04 0.04 1.59
18 The Legend of Zelda: The Minish Cap GBA 2004 Adventure Nintendo 0.89 0.22 0.22 0.10 1.42
19 Classic NES Series: The Legend of Zelda GBA 2004 Adventure Nintendo 0.46 0.17 0.24 0.02 0.89
20 The Legend of Zelda: Four Swords Adventures GC 2004 Adventure Nintendo 0.63 0.16 0.00 0.02 0.81
21 Classic NES Series: Zelda II: The Adventure of Link GBA 2004 Adventure Nintendo 0.37 0.14 0.17 0.01 0.70
22 The Legend of Zelda: The Minish Cap(weekly JP sales) GBA N/A Action N/A 0.00 0.00 0.27 0.01 0.27

Total: 70.6m



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

Well I couldn't be happier about the last couple days upward movement on the stock. And I couldn't be less happy with the Wii U sales numbers clocking in at 52.5k globally last week.

There's no denying it any longer - people just don't want the Wii U, for whatever reason, right now. Blame it on marketing, a lack of games, the economy, or just the system itself. It doesn't matter. It's a combo of all of those.

But right now, it's a disaster.



yeah, stock has risen quite a bit today and it's something to be a bit relieved about. But, for the long haul I hope the Wii U gains traction quick.




Great to see both the share price gaining and the yen falling. go, go, go, go!!



"When the facts change, I change my mind.  What do you do sir?" - John Maynard Keynes

Well Nintendo investors. The facts have changed.

54k Wii U's sold, followed by 39k...world-wide, in the last 2 weeks.

Abandon ship! Abandon ship! Abandon ship!

The Wii U is an early failure and now must climb out of a deep hole.  My investment time-frame was short-term, when I bet on the Wii U in June 2012.

Oddly I still think I was right back then, about the Wii U.  I was just wrong about Nintendo.  I could never have forseen: a massive Day 1 update, a poor GamePad battery life,  Black Ops II selling so atrociously on Wii U,  the Wii U gameplay capabilities being showcased so ineffectively in the launch games, Madden & Fifa being the definitively inferior versions, the Marketing being non-existent to really bad, TVii being delayed and then peetering out, AAA Game launches being pushed-back.

It was a perfect storm of let's just sum it up as - badness, to deflate the Wii U's balloon, to stop its momentum, to prevent anyone but the Nintendo faithful to purchase the machine.

Nintendo will post a strong Q3 in a couple days.  But when they drastically cut the Wii U's numbers on Hardware & Software, and I mean drastically - the near-term future of Nintendo will look so bleak to Investors, that no Yen weakening, no Holiday profits, no game announcements, will move the stock far upwards.

This doesn't even take into account the 3DS misses.  They'll be cutting fiscal 2012 Hardware & Software there, too.  The 6 Billion Yen Annual profit projections had Wii U hardware & software, and 3DS hardware & software sales baked into it.  Now, Nintendo is most likely going to post 2 Annual losses in a row.

In fact when Investors see what's happening with Wii U & 3DS...how badly both systems are missing expectations, I'm betting Nintendo stock drops 10% - 20% from todays levels, down to the $10 - $11 range. Trading for below book-value, essentially just for the cash they have in the bank.

Long-term, Nintendo will be fine.  And the Wii U can have a big comeback.  But for me right now, there's lots of better places for my money.  And yours too.