I was dead on wasn't I? :P 3DS will sell more consistently I think. It's also gonna be mroe in supply for the holidays and with 2 Ginormous games releasing it might beat last year's numbers which is still very very impressive.

Btw above 5mil in Japan is gigantic make no mistake. Only PS and DS have ever done that I think (not sure about PS but PS2 never managed that).

Here's a table since 2000 according to Media Create:

Clearly anything above 4m+/year is considered excellent. PS2 still has the highest home console sales of all time so that should serve as a reminder of that. 5m+ is extraordinary. And yes, nothing has come or probably will ever come close to what the DS sold in 2006-2007, maybe 3DS will get to 6m this year and take 3rd place on the all time list.

Also amazing that PS2 didn't even sell 4m in 1 year. Shows you how good 3DS sales are at the moment!

I think that the DS was much more of a revolution than the 3DS, so I think the 3DS won't be able to reach the DS.

@ kopstudent89's graph: Holy Jezus DS did 8.85m in Japan in 2006?? That's over double the next best thing that isn't another DS year!

Anyway, I think I voted 'Maybe' in that poll, but now it's a sure 'No'. DS is unbeatable, but I think the 3DS will end up with respectable sales nonetheless. And lastly, at the poll; I vote the 5.5-7m option. A little over 6m sounds about right, which is damn good anyway...

6mil this year plz

Unlikely, but the 3DS will sell a lot anyway

Most of it will depend on Pokémon X/Y and seeing as this is probably the biggest Pokémon release since Red/Blue we could all be in for a surprise. Of course they are also getting MH4, Mario Party, Sonic Lost Worlds and Zelda, I wouldn't be too shocked to see it close in on the DSlite numbers, something closer to 7 mil.

3DS did 5.5mil last year. Like I say nothing to scuff at!! 

Week 36!

Things are finally interesting again. Interesting enough, I think, for weekly updates going forward.

DS 06 -- 145,875
3DS 13 --79,183

With no major releases this week, the DS fell to 145k. Last week, it was over 230k following the release of the Final Fantasy III remake.

The 3DS, on the other hand, has struggled to sell half this amount all year. In spite of strong releases of titles such as Tomodachi Collection, Ace Attorney 5, Shin Megami Tensei IV, Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D, and Mario & Luigi: Dream Team, its second- and third-quarter weekly hardware sales have fluctuated around the 50k mark. However, in anticipation of one of the biggest releases of the year, sales have been increasing without obvious cause for two consecutive weeks, and have now landed at 79k. This is the highest week for 3DS hardware sales since week 7 -- and the first time they have exceeded 75k since week 12, in the first quarter.

Week 37 preview: DS sales fall marginally further next week, again in the absense of major software releases. This lull won't last long, as Pokemon Diamond & Pearl will be released just a couple of weeks later. On the 3DS side of things... well, I think we all know what's coming. Media Create numbers are already in, after all -- so I'll see you next week for a monster update.

The tally thus far:

DS 06 -- 5,268,357
3DS 13 -- 2,536,943
Adv DS +2,731,414

Week 37!

DS 06 -- 141,274
3DS 13 -- 284,331

At about 141k, DS sales hold steady this week in the absence of any major new releases. The 3DS, on the other hand, skyrockets to nearly 300k hardware sales with the release of Monster Hunter 4 and its opening of over 1.7 million sales at retail. This is the 3DS's second-biggest week so far this year, only falling about 8k behind week 1 due to the post-Holiday high. For reference, the next-highest week the 3DS has had this year was week 6 at 135k, when Dragon Quest VII 3D was released, and the 3DS has only one other week above 100k. Surprisingly, by this point in the year, the DS also had only one week in excess of 284k sales, and had not yet broken 300k. This is the first time 3DS sales have beaten DS sales since week 8.

Week 38 preview: DS maintains its sales at 141k. 3DS drops sharply to about 160k-170k, falling greatly but managing to hold its lead over the DS for at least one more week.

DS 06 -- 5,409,631
3DS 13 -- 2,821,274
Adv DS +2,588,357

The 3DS manages to close the gap slightly for the first time since the DS took the lead, pushing said lead back to its lowest point since week 34. It will close the gap a bit more (but probably not significantly) next week.