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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Any other company would have fired their CEO by now. Time to fire across the board at Nintendo!

F0X on 07 January 2013

Much of this negativity is but a byproduct of uncertainty.

One year from now, I will look back on threads like these and laugh.



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Jaywood2010 on 07 January 2013

oh a doom thread. How original. Nintendo is fine, relax.




       

zumnupy10 on 07 January 2013

People are so forgetful.

After the Gamecube failure, a lot of people out there didn't think Nintendo could make a winner in the console race against Sony and MS.

Iwata and Reggie have done a lot of mistakes recently, that's for sure, but they were also responsible to put Nintendo back on top with the Wii and DS.





TheLastStarFighter on 07 January 2013
OceanJ 1 hour ago
TheLastStarFighter said:
I have bought a significant amount of Nintendo stock. I can say that a big reason I purchased was because of the leadership of Iwata and Myamoto. Nintendo's software has been other-worldly successful and Iwata has lead a complete revival of the Nintendo brand. 3DS is trending ahead of its predecessor and that will likely continue as DS dies of in the US. WiiU just launched to around 80% of the sales of Wii despite selling in a very different environment and at a significantly higher pricepoint. As a shareholder I'm very pleased. The philosophy of not going all out to push tech boundries is very wise. The low price and touchscreen interface should appeal to a mass-market audience. People may want a better-looking NSMBU, but it was probably affordable to produce and should generate buckets of profits. And as far as 3rd party support goes as a gamer I want it but if it doesn't come I'll just buy a PS4 or Nextbox depending on which seems better. But as a shareholder I don't really care as long as the systems still sell. 3rd party is great, but if you have a 1st part dominated system you make way more profits since you make more money off 1st party. I only want to see more 3rd party support in that it will help drive sales, especially late-life sales...but by then I will have probably sold my stock anyway.

I too have used the YoY 3DS sales increase, as well as the fact it's still outpacing the DS globally in arguments in Nintendo's favor.

But then I considered the following:

Nintendo's biggest markets are outside of Japan. U.S. and European growth specifically must be used and cited as markers of success & future prospects since Japan alone can't sustain growth for Nintendo.

  • 3DS Sales for U.S. for 2011, Release Date 3/27: 4,107,353 ...9 months on the market (105,317/wk)
  • 3DS Sales for U.S. for 2012: 3,511,517 12 months (67,529/wk)

The 3DS sold 600,000 fewer units in the United States total in calendar year 2012 though it had more available games, a price cut, and 3 more months on sale vs 2011 - and dropped 38k in weekly average sales.

Now Europe:

  • 3DS Sales for Europe for 2011, Release Date March 25th: 3,597,727...9 months on the market (92,249 / week)
  • 3DS Sales for Europe for calendar 2012: 3,594,486 12 months (69,124 / week)
3DS sales for Europe in 2012 fell by 3k total though it had an extra 3 months on the market, and dropped 23k in weekly average sales.
CONCLUSION: 3DS is declining in Nintendo's key markets.
Japan:
  • 3DS Sales for Japan for 2011, Release Date Feb 26th: 4,312,326 ...10 months on the market (99,592/week)
  • 3DS Sales for Japan 2012: 5,503,782 12 months on the market (103,845 / week)
Japan saw a YoY increase of 1,191,456 3DS units, with a 4k weekly average increase in unit sales...leaving a Net Global YoY Increase of 588,456
CONCLUSION: 3DS Sales in Japan is the only reason for the YoY sales increase.
2011 Global 3DS Sales: 13,250,062 (Over 300k / week)
2012 Global 3DS Sales: 13,775,151 (264,907 / week)
Using the above weekly sales information for 2011, we see the average weekly sales-rate for 3DS declined in 2012 globally despite the YoY increase
Now what about the fact that the 3DS is outpacing the DS in sales? How did the DS do in the US, Europe, and Japan over it's first couple years?
In it's first 52 Weeks in the U.S., the DS from Nov 27. 2004 - Nov 26 2005 sold 2,823,080.
In it's second 52 Weeks, U.S. - 4,610,290
The DS gained dramatically in popularity in the U.S. during its 2nd year available for sale.
Europe DS first 52 Weeks on sale, release date March 11, 2005: 4,125,618
Europe DS second 52 Weeks on sale: 6,740,467
The DS showed a large upward trend in Europe during it's 2nd year on sale similar to the U.S.
Japan DS first 52 weeks on sale: 3,909,841
Japan DS second 52 weeks on sale: 8,811,135
Japan saw a huge DS increase like the U.S., and Europe.
CONCLUSION: Though the 3DS is outpacing the DS in unit sales globally after nearly 100 weeks of their respective launches, it has done so due to A) selling more units initially riding on the shoulders of its predecessor - the DS's success, but the 3DS's declining trend in the US and in Europe, despite strong Japanese sales, will shortly show that the DS will outpace the 3DS over a longer time horizon, and that the 3DS does not have a chance to match life-time unit sales of the DS.
FINAL CONCLUSION:
What all of this seems to mean is that the gaming landscape is shifting underneath the feet of Nintendo in its two key markets, the U.S. and Europe. Its handheld is in decline most likely due to iOS & Android Smart-Phone & Tablet gaming, which are trending upwards. This paints a rocky picture for Nintendo, especially if their Wii U system does not catch on as hoped.
This appears to be why Investors are so Bearish on Nintendo and feel Nintendo management is out of touch with most of the gaming world.
 
 
There is no doubt that many investors doubt Nintendo's strategy and feel that Smartphones and tablets are cutting into Nintendo's market. However, like you there is nothing to substantiate that claim. Smartphones in Japan have had quality games for a long time before they started making there way here and that market is bigger than ever today.  If anything I would call phone gaming more of a fad but only time will tell and I digress.
 
More specifically to your points and conclusion about the numbers.  I love data.  there are a couple of problems with your data...or at least parts that are not really factored in.  First, your US data is comparing full years. But as we know, DS launched at Christmas while 3DS launched in spring.  That means for DS it's first year Christmas was with gimped launch supplies, while 3DS was post-price drop and with a full year's supply of inventory build up and avaialable. So it's not comparing apples to apples.
 
But most of all is once you factor in that different launch period, the 3DS is actually following the DS very closely. If you look at sales history, and bring in the GBA history as well, you can see that for the first two years on the market the DS was way more popular in Japan than it was in the US.  It wasn't until year 3 that the DS caught up in America.  There are several reasons, but a very significant one is the launch of Pokemon titles which launch a year later in the US than in Japan.  GBA sales lasted strong about a year longer in the US than in Japan.  The same is true of DS which saw Pokemon arrive for Christmas just last year.  Expect US buyers to abandon the DS this coming year and start buying up 3DS in larger numbers, quickly catching up to Japan and following the overall sales trend and proportion of the DS.


TheLastStarFighter on 07 January 2013
Vinniegambini 1 hour ago
TheLastStarFighter said:
Vinniegambini 25 minutes ago
TheLastStarFighter said:
I have bought a significant amount of Nintendo stock. I can say that a big reason I purchased was because of the leadership of Iwata and Myamoto. Nintendo's software has been other-worldly successful and Iwata has lead a complete revival of the Nintendo brand. 3DS is trending ahead of its predecessor and that will likely continue as DS dies of in the US. WiiU just launched to around 80% of the sales of Wii despite selling in a very different environment and at a significantly higher pricepoint. As a shareholder I'm very pleased. The philosophy of not going all out to push tech boundries is very wise. The low price and touchscreen interface should appeal to a mass-market audience. People may want a better-looking NSMBU, but it was probably affordable to produce and should generate buckets of profits. And as far as 3rd party support goes as a gamer I want it but if it doesn't come I'll just buy a PS4 or Nextbox depending on which seems better. But as a shareholder I don't really care as long as the systems still sell. 3rd party is great, but if you have a 1st part dominated system you make way more profits since you make more money off 1st party. I only want to see more 3rd party support in that it will help drive sales, especially late-life sales...but by then I will have probably sold my stock anyway.

What was your entry point? Mine was 14.40$ :(

I started picking it up as it started to really fall in the summer. My overall average is $13.92. I feel confident that we'll see it fly past $20 at some point this year, but I'm kicking myself for not selling at $17 and re-buying now. I didn't anticipate this fall though...and there's really no reason for it. They will most likely hit their projections, and the yen falling in value is wonderful for them. I think 14.40 will make you very happy, but it may take a year.

I'm kicking myself too for not selling at 17.50$. Anywho, let's hope this investment works for the both of us.

 

Hopefully we will have a VGChartz party within the year saying:

 

 

 

 

 

 



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mjk45 on 07 January 2013

Since people are lumping Iwata and Reggie together , exactly what part in Nintendo's success with the Wii was Reggie responsible for ?.

Now if you lumped Miyamoto and Ashida together when talking about Nintendo's success , that I could understand .



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OceanJ on 07 January 2013
More specifically to your points and conclusion about the numbers.  I love data.  there are a couple of problems with your data...or at least parts that are not really factored in.  First, your US data is comparing full years. But as we know, DS launched at Christmas while 3DS launched in spring.  That means for DS it's first year Christmas was with gimped launch supplies, while 3DS was post-price drop and with a full year's supply of inventory build up and avaialable. So it's not comparing apples to apples.
 
But most of all is once you factor in that different launch period, the 3DS is actually following the DS very closely. If you look at sales history, and bring in the GBA history as well, you can see that for the first two years on the market the DS was way more popular in Japan than it was in the US.  It wasn't until year 3 that the DS caught up in America.  There are several reasons, but a very significant one is the launch of Pokemon titles which launch a year later in the US than in Japan.  GBA sales lasted strong about a year longer in the US than in Japan.  The same is true of DS which saw Pokemon arrive for Christmas just last year.  Expect US buyers to abandon the DS this coming year and start buying up 3DS in larger numbers, quickly catching up to Japan and following the overall sales trend and proportion of the DS.

Regarding the DS vs 3DS comparisons...yes the DS was launched in Nov of 2004 during the holidays and the 3DS was not.

I only brought the DS into the conversation for 1 point which is valid regardless:  In its 2nd year on sale, the DS trended dramatically up in total and average weekly sales, in all major regions.  But the 3DS in its second year trended down in both the U.S. and Europe.   This fact holds relevance regardless of launch dates.

Also just to clarify my agenda...like you I'm a Nintendo investor, and I'm trying to figure out what to do with my shares.  I was baffled by the current share-price.  And I couldn't figure out how if 3DS was outpacing the DS, and UP YoY globally from 2011 - 2012...AND it's selling for a profit!  HOW Nintendo shares could possibly be pushing new 52 week lows.

The answer to my dismay, is because the 3DS is in decline in Europe and the US and somehow Japan did so strong that it made up for those declines.  But Japan can't keep carrying the load for Nintendo.

No matter what the reason, the simple fact is the 3DS is on a bad trajectory in the US and Europe.



Ganoncrotch on 07 January 2013
JayWood2010 said:
oh a doom thread. How original. Nintendo is fine, relax.


but it's a doom thread with a spin! doomed upper management, just waiting now on the Comparison thread where we have calls for the retirement and/or shooting of Lord Kutaragi :D

 

Just seeing too much of this, "The wiiu and 3ds are selling great... But they need to do more to impress me as a non fan of Nintendo who is upset by everything good happening for them! they need to upset me more" kinda vibe going about here, it's not healthy.



Why not check me out on youtube and help me on the way to 2k subs over at www.youtube.com/stormcloudlive

Vinniegambini on 07 January 2013
TheLastStarFighter said:
Vinniegambini 1 hour ago
TheLastStarFighter said:
Vinniegambini 25 minutes ago
TheLastStarFighter said:
I have bought a significant amount of Nintendo stock. I can say that a big reason I purchased was because of the leadership of Iwata and Myamoto. Nintendo's software has been other-worldly successful and Iwata has lead a complete revival of the Nintendo brand. 3DS is trending ahead of its predecessor and that will likely continue as DS dies of in the US. WiiU just launched to around 80% of the sales of Wii despite selling in a very different environment and at a significantly higher pricepoint. As a shareholder I'm very pleased. The philosophy of not going all out to push tech boundries is very wise. The low price and touchscreen interface should appeal to a mass-market audience. People may want a better-looking NSMBU, but it was probably affordable to produce and should generate buckets of profits. And as far as 3rd party support goes as a gamer I want it but if it doesn't come I'll just buy a PS4 or Nextbox depending on which seems better. But as a shareholder I don't really care as long as the systems still sell. 3rd party is great, but if you have a 1st part dominated system you make way more profits since you make more money off 1st party. I only want to see more 3rd party support in that it will help drive sales, especially late-life sales...but by then I will have probably sold my stock anyway.

What was your entry point? Mine was 14.40$ :(

 

 

I started picking it up as it started to really fall in the summer. My overall average is $13.92. I feel confident that we'll see it fly past $20 at some point this year, but I'm kicking myself for not selling at $17 and re-buying now. I didn't anticipate this fall though...and there's really no reason for it. They will most likely hit their projections, and the yen falling in value is wonderful for them. I think 14.40 will make you very happy, but it may take a year.

I'm kicking myself too for not selling at 17.50$. Anywho, let's hope this investment works for the both of us.

 

Hopefully we will have a VGChartz party within the year saying:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lmao yes let's hope it does.

Regarding your position on the 3DS, I agree. I only see growth here on forth in 2013 for the 3DS, more so in Japan nontheless. The decline in the US and EUR can simply be attributed to the lack of compelling software. In 2013, one should see growth in both markets, EUR and US due to the array of sotware titles coming as Animal Crossing and Pokemon both shift hardware, and to a lesser extent, Fire Emblem, Luigi's Mansion and Monster Hunter all have their niche market.



TheLastStarFighter on 07 January 2013

Excellent OJ, you can join me and Vinnie on the money train! I honestly think that the dip in 3DS sales in the US and Europe has nothing to do with the drop in share price. I think the stock just needs some good, concrete sales/profit news. Investors are seldom ahead of the curve and are usually reactionary. And the vast majority are not into games as much as those on this site. I doubt most who have investments in Nintendo even know that the sales are down. They just aren't hearing Wii-like buzz, are scared of games in general, and have yet to hear that Nintendo has started turning a profit again.

 

I think the 2nd year dip in 3DS sales is relevant, but more do to the massive late 1st year spike from Christmas/price drop, as well as extended interest in DS due to pokemon and a great low price. I'm pretty confident in a big upswing this year.