another question is about MS and Sony locking used games lol. That will make a huge difference to heh

I see them start locking them gradually one by one.

I'd be surprised if Nintendo pulls off another Wii-like gen. The WiiU hasn't launched aswell as the Wii did.

It's also important to remember that the landscape can change alot going from one gen to another.

I'll wait until we know more before I make any predictions.

Even gamecube got mario but fail,Monster Hunter will help only in Japan and Annimal Crossing will never will never be as big as Annimal Crossing in ds or 3ds

It's too early to know who will dominate the next gen

@bold. What makes you say that?

Nintendo wins Japan
Sony Wins Europe
Microsoft wins North America
Based on that we don't know who will when this next generation.

Reason why 360 gained as much traction as it did was because of a year head start with a 600 dollar price tag from its closest competition... Things change dramaticly fromgeneration to generation. Who knows, maybe the MS will get snuffed upcoming gen before it gains traction

gergroy said: I wouldnt say lower power systems always do the best.  Sega is your example

That's debatable. But let me slightly modify the idea...

If a notable system is distinctly and unarguably less powerful than its competition, it will win.

When it comes to Sega's systems, there is some debate about the early systems relative to the NES and SNES, usually with "it's more powerful in this way but less powerful in that way" as the complicating factor.

These threads predicting PS4 total demise fail to recognise that PS3 rose like a phoenix from the ashes. Sony gave PS3 the worst possible start in life yet the Sony brand has retained relevance in all markets. And is now dominating sales everywhere except NA and UK. It even dominated Wii before Wii U released.

If PS4 launches in the same price window as 720 then it's going to be PS4 edging 720 globally, because of the massive disparity in Japan. It's essentially going to be like the last 3 years between MS and Sony. It's going to be closer between PS4 and Wii U in Japan than the early days of Wii and PS3.

People were predicting PS3 to be the GC of this generation. But in the end PS3 has sold more than all other consoles from previous generations other than PS and PS2. By any measure other than against PS and PS2, PS3 has been a great success in terms of number of consoles sold. Financially it's another story, but in a thread about install base the financials are only relevant if it's likely to prevent a next gen release.

I think all next gen home consoles will LTD in the 30-40% market share range.

This gen has changed the game and I don't see one player being a dominant force by any substantial margin anymore. As other economies grow and become more affluent the relevance of the US market will drop (not by much though), so with the world changing so much I think it's far too early to predict which if the big 3 will end up with the larger market share. Wii U is in the better position at present, but they haven't caught a wave yet, so it's still all on.

LOL at this prediction, wii was a one hit wonder, it sold to people that were not gamers, people that wanted the next new thing, like exercising at home, a realistic prediction would be ps4 doing 97 million and 720 doing 90, with the wii u doing 30 million.

Wiiu is being outsold by the vita in many area's, and you actually think it will dominate?