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Forums - Sales - WiiU vs. last gen and handhelds

kowenicki said:
No chance.

wiiU will be over 10m by the end of this year.

Time to rethink that statement.



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^You don't even know if those numbers are even final, but since I know what fanbase you are part of. It doesn't surprise me you jumped on it lol.



phenom08 said:
^You don't even know if those numbers are even final, but since I know what fanbase you are part of. It doesn't surprise me you jumped on it lol.

Well, I discussed the quality of the numbers in the thread. crissindahouse made a good argument: even if on the front-page the numbers change. I changed this graph for last week too, I can do it again ths week. And to add to it: the numbers are not too unlikely - a sharp drop this week is to expect. Maybe the final numbers will be slightly better, but as X360 was magically going up in sales (probably because of supply-problems the weeks before) the WiiU will be behind that pretty sure. And PS3 is without europe so far.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Asriel said:
Great thread, something I'll keep checking. It's obvious Wii U is going to be below Wii's pace for the first two years, but I'm really interested to see how it compares to Wii's third and fourth years, to see if Nintendo can get a steadier, more long-term curve out of this machine.

It's also great to see comparisons to the PS3/360 launches. I fully expect Wii U to be over 10 million by 50 weeks and over 20 million by 100 weeks.

With this prediction, keep in mind 50 weeks does not include most of the holidays.  It would be ending Nov. 2, 2013 (for the US at least).  In order for it to hit 10 million by that date, it will need to average 177k a week for 43 weeks.  If the numbers for the week ending Jan 12th are accurate, then that number went up to 180k for the next 42 weeks.  Seeing as how the Wii U is unlikely to sell more than 180k a week for the forseeable future, that number is only going to go up.

Even if the Wii U were to rebound and sell 100k a week until E3, that would mean it needs 260k a week for the 21 weeks after E3.  If last weeks numbers are accurate and it continues with those sales until E3 it would need 302k a week for the 21 weeks after E3.

As a point of comparison, the Wii averaged 245k a week from the start of January to the start of November 2007.



Updated the graphs in the OP with this weeks data.

The WiiU is trailing far behind the last gen-consoles in weekly sales, something that is now also visible in the LTD-graph, although LTD WiiU so far keeps to be in front of PS3 and X360. But at this rate this will not hold for long, in around 10 weeks it could hit the LTD-lines for the two consoles if sales do not change.

Next week includes the Nintendo Direct with the new game-announcements for WiiU. I doubt sales will pick up on announcements instead of games, but who knows. Let's see.



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I'm not interested in Nintendo games/consoles, but in my opinion Wii U is doing spectacular, way better then I thought. I also think that a touch-screen is a great addition to tradditional controllers, tho I don't like how Nintendo did it with the Wii U. They made it too much like a tablet, wich I'm a sure that was the idea to trick consumers. I belive a smaller screen would have been better, because the controller would feel, look and play more tradditionaly.



I see the Wii U sales staying at this level until about week 17 or 18 (release of Lego City:Undercover and MH3U respectively) where it will have a spike. Then the sales will have an average slope with more releases and spiking at Wii Fit U which will release in June maybe late May. The summer will then, gradually reduce the sales slope til Wii Party U comes out and then, a drought of games will come slowing the slope to about the average slope which would continue for rest of its year Coming at 8.5 million to 9 million (this is excluding the possibility that Windwaker HD comes out before the other 2 systems)



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AstroGamer said:
I see the Wii U sales staying at this level until about week 17 or 18 (release of Lego City:Undercover and MH3U respectively) where it will have a spike. Then the sales will have an average slope with more releases and spiking at Wii Fit U which will release in June maybe late May. The summer will then, gradually reduce the sales slope til Wii Party U comes out and then, a drought of games will come slowing the slope to about the average slope which would continue for rest of its year Coming at 8.5 million to 9 million (this is excluding the possibility that Windwaker HD comes out before the other 2 systems)

Do you mean 8.5 to 9 million in 2013 alone or LTD (including the 2M from 2012)? If it is LTD, it seems possible. WiiU is selling above the levels of the Vita, which did 3.5M last year. That would project it at say 5 million for 2013. If we assume, that WiiFitU,Zelda Windwaker HD and MH3U are better systemsellers than the games Vita had last year, it would mean 6-7 million are possible. Adding the 2 million would mean your prediction may come true (if the games really sell more systems than Vitas games did). If you expect it for 2013 alone I have doubts about that prediciton.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Wii U sales really seem to be slumping as of late. Hopefully Nintendo's games in Q2 will help out.
Is the OP updated?



Mnementh said:
AstroGamer said:
I see the Wii U sales staying at this level until about week 17 or 18 (release of Lego City:Undercover and MH3U respectively) where it will have a spike. Then the sales will have an average slope with more releases and spiking at Wii Fit U which will release in June maybe late May. The summer will then, gradually reduce the sales slope til Wii Party U comes out and then, a drought of games will come slowing the slope to about the average slope which would continue for rest of its year Coming at 8.5 million to 9 million (this is excluding the possibility that Windwaker HD comes out before the other 2 systems)

Do you mean 8.5 to 9 million in 2013 alone or LTD (including the 2M from 2012)? If it is LTD, it seems possible. WiiU is selling above the levels of the Vita, which did 3.5M last year. That would project it at say 5 million for 2013. If we assume, that WiiFitU,Zelda Windwaker HD and MH3U are better systemsellers than the games Vita had last year, it would mean 6-7 million are possible. Adding the 2 million would mean your prediction may come true (if the games really sell more systems than Vitas games did). If you expect it for 2013 alone I have doubts about that prediciton.

Don't forget about all the other big titles coming this year. I fully expect Mario Kart to launch this year, and the next 3D Mario seems very likely too. Those should be the biggest hitters. Then there's also Pikmin 3, and I would think Yarn Yoshi would come out sometime in 2013 as well. Things like Wonderful 101, Rayman, Game & Wario, Just Dance 5 and more should all see releases throughout this year. Plus any unannounced games (which I'm sure we'll see. Perhaps Retro's project?) and all the smaller titles and eShop games. By the end of this year, WiiU will have quite an amazing library. I would say 5 million in 2013 is an insanely low prediction.



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