| Asriel said: Great thread, something I'll keep checking. It's obvious Wii U is going to be below Wii's pace for the first two years, but I'm really interested to see how it compares to Wii's third and fourth years, to see if Nintendo can get a steadier, more long-term curve out of this machine. It's also great to see comparisons to the PS3/360 launches. I fully expect Wii U to be over 10 million by 50 weeks and over 20 million by 100 weeks. |
With this prediction, keep in mind 50 weeks does not include most of the holidays. It would be ending Nov. 2, 2013 (for the US at least). In order for it to hit 10 million by that date, it will need to average 177k a week for 43 weeks. If the numbers for the week ending Jan 12th are accurate, then that number went up to 180k for the next 42 weeks. Seeing as how the Wii U is unlikely to sell more than 180k a week for the forseeable future, that number is only going to go up.
Even if the Wii U were to rebound and sell 100k a week until E3, that would mean it needs 260k a week for the 21 weeks after E3. If last weeks numbers are accurate and it continues with those sales until E3 it would need 302k a week for the 21 weeks after E3.
As a point of comparison, the Wii averaged 245k a week from the start of January to the start of November 2007.
