I think PSV will close the gap if Sony doesn't kill it prematurely. I mean, it can't sell worse, can it? Somewhere down the line the PSV is bound to get a game that japanese folks are interested in to push some sustained sales. Also when the market is more and more saturated with 3DS devices people will look into the PSV.

But I still think that lifetime we are looking at a 3:1 ratio between 3DS and PSV.

What is interesting about that graph is it looks like the Japanese handheld market stayed pretty much the same size, just a bunch of consumers chose a different system option. It looks like a textbook case of stealing competitors customers.

@Chandler: Not necessarily. With a device like this I think the opposite is more likely. Just like developers and customers jumped the sinking ship that was the Gamecube and everyone went for the PS2, you could see the situation here. If everyone has a 3DS to share games with, and it's getting the important games, why would you buy the competitor? I think, at least in Japan, 3DS will achieve PS2-like dominance.

Sales can stay just as bad or get worse ...

The Vita may get a couple of games that interest the Japanese market but if the 3DS is getting several times as many games that are bigger franchises the benefit to the PS-Vita is going to be very small.

The interesting thing I looked at early last month was the software/hardware ratio between the 3ds and the vita, the vita is actually only .2 game less per system(note that might of changed with the holiday season).Now it's not quite this black and white but for me at least suggest its more to do with the vita pricing than anything else. We will see quite the jump when the vita's price is dropped.

Edit~ worldwide ratio, 2.48(3ds)  2.44(vita)

Remember that Vita has a much more developed online store and Vita gamers are much more willing to buy games online. For example I've decided to go 100% digital with Vita and I haven't even seen what a Vita cart looks like. The cart slots in my Vita have never been opened. So in your chart I harm the ratio with 1 Vita and 0 games, while from Sony's point of view that's not exactly the same story. I'm sure there are more people like me out there and Vita has a better ratio. Better ratio and better sales of 3rd party games are the only things this console has going for it right now.

Think well continue to see a 3:1 or 4:1 ratio of 3ds vs Vita sales unless the price is dropped. Its just too high for the market its appealing to.

Also, amazing how Nintendo stole a ton of PSP marketshare when seeing that graph.

I wonder how many people are going in that route, probably not as many. And in Japan, I'd think that the game most sold digitally is Animal Crossing. If Nintendo actually hooks people through that game to the other titles in the E-Shop, and japanese consumers start developing a better awareness of digital sales, will be the 3DS not the Vita that has the better position in digital sales. In Japan of course.

Just proves how amazing the Vita's launch was! BEAST.

This.