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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Wii U will sell under 7m in 2013

 

Thoughts?

No chance. The Wii U will... 415 53.34%
 
I agree, the Wii U will s... 363 46.66%
 
Total:778

I guess I'll become vgcs next messiah after my prediction for 2014.



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I originally stated that it would sell at least no less than 5 million lifetime by the end of 2013, and I stand by that, it is totally attainable and in fact probable. I also said that I could SEE it reaching 6-7 million, but only if it gets a major holiday/black friday bump, which it conceivably could. But we'll see. Nintendo really needs to roll out the big ads, everywhere, right now.



my guess was between 6.5 and 7.5



TheLastStarFighter said:
bananaking21 said:
TheLastStarFighter said:
You will bump this thread until around September when it's proven wrong. Then everyone else will bump it to laugh at you.


 


lol.  Of course you had to quote me you punk, lol.  

It was still a bad prediction though.  It's like if a fan of lousy sports team predicts a win over a superior opponent and the team pulls of the upset.  The prediction wasn't right because of knowledge, but because of blind faith.

So Wii U has sold 1,563,000 so far.  5,437,000 units to go...   If Wii U can double its launch year Christmas performance (which is typical of most hardware), it could actually make it.

10 Weeks left in the year. You don't seriously expect the Wii U to sell on average 500,000 a week for the rest of the year do you? 

 

Lol you just contradicted yourself, how can you say he was going off faith. And then you made this crazy ass prediction with no backing at all the Wii U doesn't have the same bed as the weed so why the hell would it do Wii numbers especially now that it has competition.



9 weeks left this year. 5.5m left to go ...
starting next this week it must sell no less than 605k avg a week until the end of the year.

impossible ? maybe who knows, maybe we will see a big boost in sales to make it happen.

but to be fair the ps4 and xbone need 780k a week to reach 7mio so its not too bad for the wiiu :p jk



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I responded to thread thinking he meant lifetime sales.  Maybe I wasn't confused though and just assumed it could easily do it considering it sold decently during launch.  Many were wrong about 3DS sales after rough start but I should have known home console market is different.



It's only sold around 800k so far, and most of the big games were either pushed back to 2014 or weren't coming out this year to begin with. Numbers under 7 million for the calendar year are entirely reasonable.

In fact, I don't expect them to sell much more than that for the fiscal year either (ending March '14). Even with the likes of MK8 and Smash coming out, the system has sold too shittily over the past 9 months for one exceptional quarter to make up the difference.



Have some time to kill? Read my shitty games blog. http://www.pixlbit.com/blogs/586/gigantor21

:D

Daisuke72 said:
TheLastStarFighter said:
bananaking21 said:
TheLastStarFighter said:
You will bump this thread until around September when it's proven wrong. Then everyone else will bump it to laugh at you.


 


lol.  Of course you had to quote me you punk, lol.  

It was still a bad prediction though.  It's like if a fan of lousy sports team predicts a win over a superior opponent and the team pulls of the upset.  The prediction wasn't right because of knowledge, but because of blind faith.

So Wii U has sold 1,563,000 so far.  5,437,000 units to go...   If Wii U can double its launch year Christmas performance (which is typical of most hardware), it could actually make it.

10 Weeks left in the year. You don't seriously expect the Wii U to sell on average 500,000 a week for the rest of the year do you? 

 

Lol you just contradicted yourself, how can you say he was going off faith. And then you made this crazy ass prediction with no backing at all the Wii U doesn't have the same bed as the weed so why the hell would it do Wii numbers especially now that it has competition.

lol@ your lol.  I didn't contradict myself at all.  MBP made a prediction on on January 3rd of this year saying that Wii U would sell less than 7 million.  He wasn't really basing it on anything, as all we had was Wii U launch numbers which were about 88% of Wii.  He just threw something random out there for fun to stir the pot, and because he's not a fan of Nintendo.

My comment, however, was not a prediction.  I just said it's actually possible, and I did give a reason.  If you look at almost every system in recent history its secont Christmas season it sold double what it did at launch.  I wasn't referencing Wii (though Wii does fit as well) but moreso PS3, XB360 and others.  In its second season a system has better availability, better brand awareness, more/better games and sometimes better pricing.

If we take XB360 as a specific example, in its second Christmas is sold about 2.5X what it did in its first.  This happened despite a troubled first year.  If Wii U also sold 2.5X through November and December, it would sell 5,617,000 units, or enough to eclipse 7 million for 2013.  I never said it had to sell Wii numbers, it only needs to do post-price drop PS360 numbers.  Since Wii U is already at that magic mass-market price of $299, and Nintendo is espcially big at Christmas, it's not totally ridiculous to say it couldn't make it.  Likely?  Probably not, but it is certainly possible.

You should be careful throwing around those lol's.  You can sometimes make yourself look either foolish, or like you don't comprehend english, because I never made a prediction in the first place, and my comment is supported by data.



What an amusing thread. It's reasons like this that I rarely engage in predictions, because I too would've thought 7m would've been a lock for Wii-U.

Lets hope it has a good enough holiday to beat Vita's 2012 numbers, at least. 200,000 a week average starting now!



TheLastStarFighter said:
Daisuke72 said:
TheLastStarFighter said:
bananaking21 said:
TheLastStarFighter said:
You will bump this thread until around September when it's proven wrong. Then everyone else will bump it to laugh at you.


 


lol.  Of course you had to quote me you punk, lol.  

It was still a bad prediction though.  It's like if a fan of lousy sports team predicts a win over a superior opponent and the team pulls of the upset.  The prediction wasn't right because of knowledge, but because of blind faith.

So Wii U has sold 1,563,000 so far.  5,437,000 units to go...   If Wii U can double its launch year Christmas performance (which is typical of most hardware), it could actually make it.

10 Weeks left in the year. You don't seriously expect the Wii U to sell on average 500,000 a week for the rest of the year do you? 

 

Lol you just contradicted yourself, how can you say he was going off faith. And then you made this crazy ass prediction with no backing at all the Wii U doesn't have the same bed as the weed so why the hell would it do Wii numbers especially now that it has competition.

lol@ your lol.  I didn't contradict myself at all.  MBP made a prediction on on January 3rd of this year saying that Wii U would sell less than 7 million.  He wasn't really basing it on anything, as all we had was Wii U launch numbers which were about 88% of Wii.  He just through something random out there for fun to stir the pot, and because he's not a fan of Nintendo.

My comment, however, was not a prediction.  I just said it's actually possible, and I did give a reason.  If you look at almost every system in recent history its secont Christmas season it sold double what it did at launch.  I wasn't referencing Wii (though Wii does fit as well) but moreso PS3, XB360 and others.  In its second season a system has better availability, better brand awareness, more/better games and sometimes better pricing.

If we take XB360 as a specific example, in its second Christmas is sold about 2.5X what it did in its first.  This happened despite a troubled first year.  If Wii U also sold 2.5X through November and December, it would sell 5,617,000 units, or enough to eclipse 7 million for 2013.  I never said it had to sell Wii numbers, it only needs to do post-price drop PS360 numbers.  Since Wii U is already at that magic mass-market price of $299, and Nintendo is espcially big at Christmas, it's not totally ridiculous to say it couldn't make it.  Likely?  Probably not, but it is certainly possible.

You should be careful throwing around those lol's.  You can sometimes make yourself look either foolish, or like you don't comprehend english, because I never made a prediction in the first place, and my comment is supported by data.

It's actually possible can be said for the OP's actual prediction, because y'know, it's going to fucking happen.

 

You're using data from the Xbox 360 and PS3, both which NEVER struggled as much and had way better appeal than the Wii U to support your claims, with no actual reasoning as to WHY it would sell over 500K a week, which require it to sell 2.5M consoles a month twice, which is nowhere near realistic, data doesn't mean shit if your console sold what, 500K all year, you're expecting it to do Wii numbers just because of data, while completely ignoring why the PS3 and Xbox 360 sold as good as they did, and the fact they never sold as low as the Wii U.

But anything that helps you keep hope, I guess.