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Forums - Nintendo - Wii U Surpasses 2 Million Sales

NintendoPie said:
Viper1 Said:

Because it's not Nintendo or Sony's business, as it were, to project the sucess of a group of retailers.   That's their job.

When Nintendo submits their quarterly and fiscal year data, it goes to the SEC.  So even legally, they must report direct sales rather than consumer sales.

I wasn't meaning that they would want to project the success of the retailer but rather the success of their product to the consumer market.

Don't you think that shipments not selling would look just as bad?

It's like I said, they legally have to report sales to retailers, etc...

Prior to April 1, 2007, Sony was actually reporting units manufactured rather than units shipped.    They changed it to the industry standard of reporting sales to direct customers to comply with new SEC laws and regulations.

 

You also have to consider that they have no direct way to verify sold to consumer based projections.  Say they project console X to sell 20 million units.   You have to look at NPD, GfK Chart Track, Famitsu and Media Create just to get a somewhat vague idea how the console sold in the major territories.  That leaves out a lot of sales in emerging markets that don't have adequte sales tracking.  You coudl easily end up a million or two off from the tracking services but have in reality met your goal and never know it.



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Viper1 Said:

It's like I said, they legally have to report sales to retailers, etc...

Prior to April 1, 2007, Sony was actually reporting units manufactured rather than units shipped.    They changed it to the industry standard of reporting sales to direct customers to comply with new SEC laws and regulations.

 

You also have to consider that they have no direct way to verify sold to consumer based projections.  Say they project console X to sell 20 million units.   You have to look at NPD, GfK Chart Track, Famitsu and Media Create just to get a somewhat vague idea how the console sold in the major territories.  That leaves out a lot of sales in emerging markets that don't have adequte sales tracking.  You coudl easily end up a million or two off from the tracking services but have in reality met your goal and never know it.

In a way I guess it is quite impossible to really track the sales to actual consumers.

Even though it still bothers me, it makes sense. Thanks for explaining!



HappySqurriel said:
dsgrue3 said:
Wii didn't sell under 200,000 units per week from launch date until mid-march.
Wii U will sell under 200,000 units by Mid-January.

There is no hype for Wii U, these projections are way off.

Sub 4m by end of March.


Last year the Wii sold 1,557,816 from January 1st to March 31st, the Wii U will (likely) need less than that to have sold 4 Million by the end of March, and if you think the Wii U will sell worse than the Wii did in 2012 I have a bridge to sell you ...

The Wii also sold ~3.45 million from the week ending Nov 26 to Dec 24 in 2011.  That is only counting NA for the first week, NA and EU for the second, and then WW so it corresponds to the staggered release of the Wii U.  It has a good chance of staying ahead for the next two weeks as well.  So considering the Wii has been ahead by about 57% so far, it isn't that far fetched.  Of course the Wii fell down hard after Jan 7th 2012, so it's unlikely to stay ahead, but we also don't know yet what will happen to Wii U sales after the holidays.  I suspect Japanese sales should be strong enough to keep it ahead though.



NintendoPie said:
Viper1 said:
NintendoPie said:

True about the shipments. I'm sure that's what they were talking about after reading through the thread more.

Injust dont get why companies talk about shipped more than sold though. Shouldn't sold be the thing to make predictions on?

When companies make a projection, there are 2 things you must keep in mind.

1. They are writing for investors sakes, not consumers and interested media.

2. Nintendo (and the other 2) do not sell directly to consumers.  They sell to retailers, distributors, wholesalers, etc.....    To them, that is "the sale".   You can almost say that consumers are actually a second hand sale.   That product you see on the shelf was already sold from the previous owner (Nintendo) to the new owner (retailer).   

So when they project sales, they are projecting sales to their actual customers, not the consumers who come further down the supply line.

I understand that the consumers aren't the point of sale to Nintendo, but why would they want to project shipments when sales are more important? (Technically.)

If a company ships what it expects, then those shipments don't sell, wouldn't that be just as bad as consumers not buying anything? 


to everything viper said i'll add...

nintendo (or whoever) can't just ship anything they want.  retailers have to buy them.  if consumers aren't buying the units then retailers won't buy them either.  there will be a bit of a lag between consumer sales rise/fall and retailer sales rise/fall but there is still a tight, direct relationship.  retailers try to manage their inventory very close to always have "just enough" stock. 



Maris said:
A little over 3 million in 3 months? Its definitely possible, as long as they can maintain momentum past the holiday season. Unfortunately, I feel that they'll miss their predictions again, if only by a bit. It seems to be a trend with Nintendo lately.


If they miss their target again, stock holders are going to be very unimpressed and one has to ask if the management of Nintendo is really adequate. 



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kitler53 said:


to everything viper said i'll add...

nintendo (or whoever) can't just ship anything they want.  retailers have to buy them.  if consumers aren't buying the units then retailers won't buy them either.  there will be a bit of a lag between consumer sales rise/fall and retailer sales rise/fall but there is still a tight, direct relationship.  retailers try to manage their inventory very close to always have "just enough" stock. 

Ok, now that makes even more sense! 

Thanks to both of you for explaining that.



Mensrea said:
I bought it, but I have never felt this underwhelmed by a Nintendo system. The system itself is fine, I'm sure there will be some great ways to use the gamepad and all that jazz. It's just, I beat Zombi U and NSMBU, what now?


In fairness to any new system I bought the Playstation 2 near launch (cursed shortages!) and for the first year I felt that way.  It went on to be quite possibly the best system I have ever owned (between it and the SNES).

I am not saying Wii U will do the same, but that not unusual for a system to be slow out of the gate and really pick up 12 to 18 months after launch.  We shall see.



Wii U will reach the predicted sales,but just because of japan and monster hunter.



Nintendo wants to ship 5.5 million by March 31st.  Currently, at 2,207,828 as of Dec 22.  There are 15 unreported sales weeks left until March 31st.

To reach 5.5 million in sales, Wii U needs to sell 3,292,172 in 15 weeks, or 219,478 / week.

Take a look below at how the Wii fared during its launch period, during the same 15 weeks from the last week of Decemeber 2006 through end of March 2007.

As you can see the Wii posted 3,168,846 sales during this period, averaging  211,256/ week - to end with 5,838,056 in sales.
Thus, the Wii U would need to outpace the Wii every single week in sales, just in order to reach 5.5 million in sales.  The Wii U has not even come close to doing so once so far, and it will not do so at any point through the end of March.
So, it is a virtual guarantee that the Wii U will not sell 5.5 million.  But, Nintendo's goal was to ship 5.5 million.  They didn't provide a sales goal.
Week End Dec 30 - Wii 285,571 (-52%) 2,954,781
Week End Jan 6 - Wii 304,147 (+7%) 3,258,928
Week End Jan 13 - Wii 251,498 (-17%) 3,510,426
Week End Jan 20 - Wii 245,435 (-2%) 3,755,861
Week End Jan 27 - Wii 251,288 (+2%) 4,007,149
Week End Feb 3 - Wii 231,018 (-8%) 4,238,167
Week Feb 10 - Wii 220,974 (-4%) 4,459,141
Week Feb 17 - Wii 216,779 (-2%) 4,675,920
Week Feb 24 - Wii 232,912 (+7%) 4,908,832
Week Mar 3 - Wii 200,263 (-14%) 5,109,095
Week Mar 10 - Wii 181,394 (-9%) 5,290,489
Week Mar 17 - Wii 193,202 (+7%) 5,483,691
Week Mar 24 - Wii 199,293 (+3%) 5,682,984
Week Mar 31 - Wii 155,072 (-22%) 5,838,056


OceanJ said:

Nintendo wants to ship 5.5 million by March 31st.  Currently, at 2,207,828 as of Dec 22.  There are 15 unreported sales weeks left until March 31st.

To reach 5.5 million in sales, Wii U needs to sell 3,292,172 in 15 weeks, or 219,478 / week.

Take a look below at how the Wii fared during its launch period, during the same 15 weeks from the last week of Decemeber 2006 through end of March 2007.

 

As you can see the Wii posted 3,168,846 sales during this period, averaging  211,256/ week - to end with 5,838,056 in sales.
Thus, the Wii U would need to outpace the Wii every single week in sales, just in order to reach 5.5 million in sales.  The Wii U has not even come close to doing so once so far, and it will not do so at any point through the end of March.
So, it is a virtual guarantee that the Wii U will not sell 5.5 million.  But, Nintendo's goal was to ship 5.5 million.  They didn't provide a sales goal.

 

Week End Dec 30 - Wii 285,571 (-52%) 2,954,781
Week End Jan 6 - Wii 304,147 (+7%) 3,258,928
Week End Jan 13 - Wii 251,498 (-17%) 3,510,426
Week End Jan 20 - Wii 245,435 (-2%) 3,755,861
Week End Jan 27 - Wii 251,288 (+2%) 4,007,149
Week End Feb 3 - Wii 231,018 (-8%) 4,238,167
Week Feb 10 - Wii 220,974 (-4%) 4,459,141
Week Feb 17 - Wii 216,779 (-2%) 4,675,920
Week Feb 24 - Wii 232,912 (+7%) 4,908,832
Week Mar 3 - Wii 200,263 (-14%) 5,109,095
Week Mar 10 - Wii 181,394 (-9%) 5,290,489
Week Mar 17 - Wii 193,202 (+7%) 5,483,691
Week Mar 24 - Wii 199,293 (+3%) 5,682,984
Week Mar 31 - Wii 155,072 (-22%) 5,838,056

See the bold. 



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