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Forums - Sony Discussion - Sony's chances of going bankrupt in the next two years

Another factors what will show how well sony will do in the future.

How will PS4 Effect there Computer buisness. Will it be a success like pS1 or 2 or more a failure?
How will the next generation of TVs effect there TV buisness. New models can do wonder.



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and




Some people here are living in a fanboy bubble thinking ps brand is dying. Here is a cue, its the 6th most trending consumer electronic in 2012 (source- google). No gaming brand comes even close.



leo-j said:
I expect a rebound.. because of playstation 3 and playstation vita..

they're making a significant profit of PS3 hardware/software sales and the same goes with the Vita.. and it's over priced memory cards..

So I'd expect them to post a lot of profit standing on it's gaming division alone.. that and their mobile division seems to be gradually growing..


Sony is losing $5 Billion per year, Sony's profits from gaming are around $120 Million per year, this means that Sony only needs 42 times as much profit as they're getting from Playstation products to break even as a company ...

Basically, the gaming division of Sony can not save the company on the whole but (if they produced a system as unprofitable as the PS3 was initially) it could push them off the edge.



Mmmmmm.......what?
Ps3 rebound? Vita? if those are really Sonys chances of making profit theyre f up
Theyre not going to get back the billions invested, and they have to put some billion more to push PS4
i think Sonys biggest chance of making real profit is announcing PS3 and Vita are their last consoles, and die with them



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DieAppleDie said:
Mmmmmm.......what?
Ps3 rebound? Vita? if those are really Sonys chances of making profit theyre f up
Theyre not going to get back the billions invested, and they have to put some billion more to push PS4
i think Sonys biggest chance of making real profit is announcing PS3 and Vita are their last consoles, and die with them

The Vita is (more or less) a lost cause, but (if Sony is smart) the PS4 could be helpful towards "fixing" Sony's problems but it would be a drastic change from their current strategy ...

If Sony could avoid paying massive technology licensing fees, and can avoid losing much money when launching the system, they could probably be quite profitable in their gaming division. This would (probably) require going with a variation of the PS3's architecture (improved Cell processor, more&faster memory, and an upgraded nVidia GPU) but would be possible. Unfortunately for Sony's fans, this would be more of a PS3.5 than the PS4 they're expecting and may not sell amazingly well; but it would be healthier for the company on the whole.



Sure a cheap PS4 would be profitable, but that would piss off hardcore gamers i believe, forcing many to buy the ultrapowerful Msoft console, in the long run it would hurt the brand name and lead them to a real DOA sitiation



DieAppleDie said:
Sure a cheap PS4 would be profitable, but that would piss off hardcore gamers i believe, forcing many to buy the ultrapowerful Msoft console, in the long run it would hurt the brand name and lead them to a real DOA sitiation


You're making the assumption that there will be an ultra-powerful Microsoft console, which I am doubtful of because Microsoft has reasons to not to take as large of losses in the next generation; and may also be looking to bundle more hardware (Kinect) with every system sold. The combination of the two means that the next XBox would either be more modest hardware or much more expensive.



Sony won't go bankrupt in the next two years but I think they will continue to decline. As far as videogames go if they launch the PS4 or Obituary or whatever they're calling it next year it's hard to imagine them making a profit with all the costs of a major launch.



HappySqurriel said:
The real problem Sony faces is that their net liabilities are at $140 Billion, their net icome is at -$5 Billion, and their debt to equity ratio is at 83% ...

At the current rate, in the not too distant future (2 to 3 years) Sony will have a book value of $0. There best option is to file for chapter 11, convince debt holders to take a haircut (probably resulting in liabilities being reduced by 50% to 75%) by diluting shareholder equity, and to restructure the company to return to profitability.

That would take a incredible amount of convincing. Creditors aren't obliged to forgive their debts, and they cannot be forced to forgive them. Further more as the situation stands now there isn't even a reason as to why they should do such a thing, because they can indeed be paid in full with the interest that they were in fact promised. Sony is just a liquidation away from making good, and the company doesn't even have to liquidate all of its assets.  Most of their assets yes, but that still doesn't mean that there wouldn't be a viable business on the other side.

The problem is that no entity can claim bankruptcy until they are bankrupt. As in imminent danger of defaulting on debts. Given Sony's cash reserves they are in a postition to be able to make their payments for the next few years, and if they do something really smart like abandon their television manufacturing business. Which depletes those reserves at a staggering rate. They could easily last twice as long as that. Even losing a billion plus dollars a year. Anyway any attempt by Sony to claim bankruptcy given their cash reserves would actually kickstart a liquidation.The creditors would recall their loans, and petition the courts to see that they got full restitution.

You see the creditors would see it as a tacit admission on the part of Sony that they have been cooking their books. Not just recently, but for a very long time, and they will no longer have any faith in the accounting. At that point there wouldn't be any saving the company. Investors would start to dump their stocks. Management would be under criminal investigation. Lending institutions in other locations would petition their local governments to seize Sony's local assets. It would just turn into a collosal cluster fuck, and in the midst of that the company would cease operations. Anytime a company drops a bombshell likes this that is totally counter indicated. Everyone knows that it is a sign of the end.

The point I am driving home is that it isn't even a option. If the management wants to keep themselves employeed, and out of prison they would be out of their fucking minds to try something like what you suggest. Firstly the court would hire a outside administrator to oversee the company, and to audit the companies books. Secondly the court would issue warrants for the arrests for key members of management. Be it cooking the books, or stock manipulation. Someone is very guilty of a felony. That isn't to say that they won't be charged, and convicted in absentia, because if I were to pull such a deranged stunt. I would prefer to be somewhere that extradition laws didn't reach.

Anyway your plan doesn't work. Sony is in bad shape, but it is more like a temporary or chronic condition. Then a sudden illness that requires immediate critical care for the patient to have any chance of survival. It is more like a case of Bronchitus. Rather then a case of meningitus. You might treat the latter with cold water immersion if the patient had a terribly high fever, because that fever could kill them.  While it isn't all that good for the Meningitus suffer. It is better then the alternative. The only thing doing that to a Bronchitus suffer will accomplish is to exacerbate their current condition, and cause it to progress to full blown pnemonia which can kill them. Your cure is worse then the disease. Especially when the disease could remedy itself over the coarse of time.

My point is that bankruptcies aren't good medicine. They are like the last resort when everything else has failed. Imagine going into a operating theater with a surgeon that works with a chainsaw, and has a ten percent success rate. Most companies that file for reconstruction die on the table, and most who actually survive the trauma succumb in a few more years anyway. Only a special few actually go on to have a future. Why wouldn't any rational entity go through all of the other treatments that have better success rates first.