HappySqurriel said:
| Mazty said:
Issue is that over the last year the stocks have taken a 17% dive. Now, you can either cut your loses and sell, or hold on to them and hope stock prices recover, which imo is highly unlikely. A good investor would have sold stock back in 2010. Holding onto Ninty stocks now I would say is a very, very risky gamble.
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An interesting pattern I have seen is that people act completely irrationally when it comes to stocks which is why their investments do so poorly ...
When Apple was approaching $700 people argued with me that it was going to fall in value because Apple was the largest tech company in the world, there market share was about as large as it could be, and they were on a multi-year winning streak; essentially, since Apple was about as big as it could be they would justify an increase in the stock price through some unknown avenue of growth.
In contrast, Nintendo today is being dragged down by hardware losses they took on the 3DS that (probably) will soon be done with, expenses they've taken to launch the Wii U which will (probably) soon be over, and because their sales were simply not unbelieveable; and people are arguing that their stock will continue to fall because there is no way that the next few years will justify an increase in the stock price.
I don't know where the bottom is for Nintendo, and the stock could potentially fall below $10 in the short term, but in 2 years they will likely be turning a profit off of every 3DS and Wii U system sold and selling 100+ Million units of software a year and brining in between $1 and $2 billion in profit a year; and if Sony or Microsoft screw up, or Nintendo releases a popular add-on, Nintendo could be on track to repeating as the leading console of the generation and surpassing the Wii in lifetime hardware and software sales.
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This.
I think Nintendo has a better chance to weather unpredictable times. They have always had super strong first party sales that give people reasons to invest in their systems, i.e. in the company itself. I've always seen it as the console you always buy along with the other consoles because you want the games, NOT the hardware.
What I worry about most is maybe a possible looming next gen storm because the industry feels so burnt out compared to how it's been. Feels similar to the PC industry towards it's previous decline. Similar, but not quite the same. I think creativity right now is taking a backseat to new ideas and fresh IPs, and less companies will take risks with the high development costs (graphics mostly to blame probably) when rather than go belly up trying to take a gamble they can just put more resources into other ventures like mobile. Usually you have a few really great games that define the period that are released that suddenly other companies and jumping in from left and right to copy, or at least ride on the wave of 'innovation' to grab some of the market. Nintendo doesn't always try to stay on top, which is what Sony and Xbox will probably try to put their bets on... that's why they've always been reliable business-wise.
I wonder if it's possible if we may see a massive resurgence in handheld gaming. There are a lot of genres that handhelds cater to that many people miss (JRPGs), and then I have to wonder if they end up being the systems that pushing the hardware would be fun to do without it costing an arm and a leg for a developer to do so.
These will be interesting times for the videogaming industry no doubt. Nobody knows how it will go.
