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Forums - Sales - I Believe PS3 Will Be The Number One Console This Gen With 115 Million Shipped. And You? (Sales > My Prediction Right Now)

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It will happen, but I don't see it doing so in the time you suggest. Cut your 2014 prediction by 25% and add another year to the prediction.
I don't see the PS3 selling 10 million in 2014, not once the ps4 is available.



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ethomaz said:
aikohualda said:
i doubt.... they would ship their focus on ps4, and they dont want ps4 to be hurt if the console is still selling 10 million post ps4

Both will live together without affect each other.

There are a lot of big games to be released in PS3 in the next years.

sony's market would change upon the arrival of ps4....

and that would affect the sales of ps3 drastically... unless they want to support ps3 more than they support their new system that would hurt it...

they are not ebony and ivory XD



 

BuckStud said:

This is to ethomaz or anyone else that want to reply I guess... How many PS3 systems do you currently have in your home?


1, the slim.



BuckStud said:

This is to ethomaz or anyone else that want to reply I guess... How many PS3 systems do you currently have in your home?


2

slim & super slim :)



VGC has PS3 down 29% through week one of April against 2012. (2.17m vs. 3.05m). If PS3 was at 85m I think you could make a case it would likely top 100m, but at the moment, 90m-95m looks more likely, with an outside shot at 100m (80m year end 2013, 8m sold, 86m year end 2014, 6m sold, 90m year end 2015, 4m sold, 92m year end 2016, 2m sold, 93m year end 2017, 1m sold, discontinued).

On pace for 8m in 2013 - assuming it doesn't decline further when Wii U, X720, PS4 all have major releases, and assuming Wii / X360 don't get price cuts.

X360 is down to 1.46m in Jan-week one April 2013, against 2.26m in the same time frame of 2012 - a 35% drop. PS3 in early 2013 is selling essentially what X360 did in early 2012, so that's likely a decent idea on how PS3 will perform next year. X360 is on pace for 6m in 2013 - again assuming the new console launches, and rival console price cuts don't hurt it.

One thing is for sure at least - X360 is the least likely of the three to get to 100m. PS3 is at ~98-99% of the lifetime sales of X360 with weekly sales in 2013 15% higher year to date. I don't think PS3 will get to 100m, but it's maybe a 10-20% shot. 

X360 could be at 80m by the end of 2013, 84m by the end of 2014, 86m at the end of 2015, 87m at the end of 2016.

Should end up at something like 102m Wii, 92m PS3, 87m X360, pretty solid growth over the PS2 era machines.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

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kowenicki said:
loy310 said:
It will happen, but I don't see it doing so in the time you suggest. Cut your 2014 prediction by 25% and add another year to the prediction.
I don't see the PS3 selling 10 million in 2014, not once the ps4 is available.


It wont sell 10m in 2013 let alone 2014.


I did not include 2013 because the ps3 have not hit $199 yet, a cut I think Sony is saving for later in the year. $199 should push it to 10 mil for 2013, but I agree it will be tough without a price reduction.



.



Updated VGC data as of March 30, 2013.



With the latest Sony number hinting to ~77m I think my prediction for the end of 2012 is really close... 75.2m.

Sony did a forecast of 10 million for FY2013... I can't compare with my numbers due the difference in time frames so I will try to adjust my prediction to fiscal years to try to make a better comparison.

I will update when I do that.



ethomaz said:
With the latest Sony number hinting to ~77m I think my prediction for the end of 2012 is really close... 75.2m.

Sony did a forecast of 10 million for FY2013... I can't compare with my numbers due the difference in time frames so I will try to adjust my prediction to fiscal years to try to make a better comparison.

I will update when I do that.

Yeah you can, you just don't want to because you realize how off your numbers are already. You have 87.5 million by the end of this year lol. Sony has it at roughly 87 million by MARCH 2014 lol. Clearly you are already over shooting it and and another 10 million through calender year 2014 is definitely wrong. Are you sure you are good at this? According to your reply to me in another thread you believe FY2016 ends in March 2016 lol.