| Gamerace said: Super Smash Bros - managed 10m on near 100m system. WiiU won't sell close to that, neither will it's SSB |
Melee managed over 7m with ~22m GCN sold. Also, Brawl is at ~11.5m.
5 games I'm betting.
- Nintendo Land
- New Super Mario Bros. U
- Mario Kart 8
- Super Smash Bros. U
- 3D Mario
I also think the WiiU will do less than the Wii did, but I think Smash Bros. as a franchise will only grow so that'll get to 10 at least. The first three are a given and I think the new 3D Mario will also get there.
If the WiiU does in fact better than or as good as the Wii, I see the following titles repeating their tricks and also ending up at around 10 million, with the last two probably ending just under it.
- Wii Sports U
- Wii Fit U
- (Mario Party 10)
- (Just Dance 5/6)
As always though, I hope Zelda sells 10 million for a change 
. Maybe the HD graphics will finally 'wow' enough people. But, not gonna happen.
Whether or not the Wii U will sell as many 10m games as the Wii did depends solely on how many non-gamers buy the Wii U... Most of those 10m games did well because of non-gamers.
Hard to say. I think NSMBU and Nintendo Land are guaranteed. Wii Fit U is a iffy one, the two for Wii easily beat 10 mil, but this one could suffer from the 'Nintendogs 3DS' problem. I think it'll pass 10 mil, though.
Then there's Smash Bros -- I think that'll beat 10 mil. The franchise has only been growing, and a game with Mario and Pikachu on the cover is bound to sell like hotcakes. I think the first 3D Mario for the system will sell 10 mil. The eventual Mario Kart is guaranteed 10 mil.
That's 6, so I'll place my final bet at 8. I'm expecting a couple of 'surprise' million-sellers. They could be third-party, they could be some kind of Pokémon game, they could be a Retro game, they could even be Zelda if the new game captures the Twilight Princess crowd and then some.
- Nintendo Land
- New Super Mario Bros. U
- Mario Kart U
- 3D Mario
- Wii U Fit
- Super Smash Bros. U
Those are the first party titles I see reaching 10 million copies. As for third parties:
- Just Dance
- Sports Connection
...and that's about it, at the moment.
If Nintendo decides to release a new Wii Sports title, it would replace Sports Connection on the list. Still, these are merely the nominees. I only expect about five of them to sell 10 million copies..
| Gamerace said: I expect all next gen systems to have dramatically lower sales than this gen and that extents to game sales. Mainly because so much of the market is moving to tablets / other systems (Ouya, Oculis Rift, Steambox). I don't expect WiiU to sell much more than 30m systems so if any game hits 10m in sales that's a major accomplishment representing 30% of the market, in my view. NintendoLand is the most likely choice to do so since it's bundled with the version that's actually selling. NSMBU is a possibility but too similar to NSMBWii and to soon after NSMB3 Mario Kart U is the only other game that might have a chance. Super Smash Bros - managed 10m on near 100m system. WiiU won't sell close to that, neither will it's SSB 3D Mario - As above Wii Fit U - Game/exercise craze is long over and nearly dead. Looks almost identical to Wii version. 5m tops. Wii U Sports - Only if it utilizes Wiimote primarily and the gamepad only as a second screen and be better than WSResort was. Involve the dual-analog and it's a dead duck (at least compared to Wii versions) Just Dance - Dance craze also starting to fade and WiiU won't have the userbase. Really, there's simply zero reasons for JD fans to upgrade to WiiU. |
I strongly disagree with you whatsoever. There is and will always be a strong market for consoles. Il ask you something, how did the ps2 sell 150 million and SNES and the NES both sold 50m if there were barely any casual people at that time?
Why are so many people over estimating the importance of these casual people. Sure, they made a lot of cash to the industry while they were there, but the consoles were still doing very good without them. Also, I highly doubt that even 1% of the console gamers will want to play on tablets instead of consoles. Finally, Pcs will never take over consoles. They are just too complicated for too many people.
Predictions for LT console sales:
PS4: 120M
XB1: 70M
WiiU: 14M
3DS: 60M
Vita: 13M
sethnintendo said:
|
I think WiiU's SSB will cross 10 million but I don't think Melee is the best comparison to use. That game was a huge anomaly sales-wise. In Japan it had something like a 90% attach ratio at one point.
Proudest Platinums:
1. Gran Turismo 5
2. Persona 4 Arena
3. Wipeout HD
4. Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2
5. Super Street Fighter 4
postofficebuddy said:
|
Melee probably benefited the most from being a launch title. There wasn't a Mario game at launch so most people picked up Smash and Luigi's Mansion.
I think these will sell 10+ million (worldwide)
Of already released titles the Wii U will (probably) have 2; Nintendoland and New Super Mario U. Of game releases on the horizon I think Wii Fit is a pretty safe bet. Nintendo can probably count on some pretty massive sales from Mario Kart, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Nintendo release an add-on with a Wii Sports game in 2014 that breaks 10 million.
So, at the moment, I think 5 is a pretty safe bet ... beyond that really depends on system sales and Nintendo's ability to produce interesting content. A 3D Mario game, Smash Bros, and a handful of "casual" hits could easily push the total close to 10; and there is always the potential for a few third party titles to be break-out successes.
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