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Of already released titles the Wii U will (probably) have 2; Nintendoland and New Super Mario U. Of game releases on the horizon I think Wii Fit is a pretty safe bet. Nintendo can probably count on some pretty massive sales from Mario Kart, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Nintendo release an add-on with a Wii Sports game in 2014 that breaks 10 million.

So, at the moment, I think 5 is a pretty safe bet ... beyond that really depends on system sales and Nintendo's ability to produce interesting content. A 3D Mario game, Smash Bros, and a handful of "casual" hits could easily push the total close to 10; and there is always the potential for a few third party titles to be break-out successes.