Obama is toasted!

Bad news for Obama.

For US Senate I voted for a guy named Nimrod Allen III... I know either Tammy Baldwin or Tommy Thompson will win but I can just imagine Nimrod winning and in 8 years posters and flyers saying "Nimrod for President"

I was actually more interested in the fact that Gallup had it that close. Prior to Sandy hitting (after which they suspended their polls), all their polls were generally showing Romney up by 4-6 points. I was almost thinking that Obama's mini-surge was just a product of Gallup exiting the polls.

I feel you. I used to live in Georgia, where we got nothing as far as presidential campaigns. Luckily, there weren't any overlapping media markets, so we didn't have to deal with the slap in the face of other states getting so much attention.

I think Sandy did end up hurting Romney.  Obama got to look like a president and focus on a crisis, while Romney was forced to sit on the sidelines and pretend to help by turning his rallies into a disaster relief operation. 

Possible. I haven't seen enough data to say anything definitive although there hasn't been any real shift in presidential approval ratings. Looking at the data, it looks more like people are moving from the undecided to the decided category, which makes sense given the election is held tomorrow, and it seems to be benefitting Obama at the moment.

Why not.

Popular Vote
Barak Obama -  49.6%
Mitt Romney - 48.8%

Electoral Vote

Obama - 286.

Romney - 248.

Though if turoun numbers are wrong that whole script could be flipped.

Not actually true.

Multiple polls signficiantly reduce the margin of error.... if they're looking at the same thing and their stnadads are fairly even.

All polls have their own models and often measure different things and also oddly, try and be as next to each other as possible because nobody likes risking being "too far out there."


Which is why composite polling has actually done a pretty shitty job at predicting vote totals.

It's just rarely come into play in elections because elections have been so far apart usually.

The 2008 presidental primary polls come to mind... and hell... the presidential election polls come to mind.

http://www.livescience.com/2183-presidential-polls-wrong.html

http://ns.umich.edu/new/releases/7067

Rasmussen was considered an outlier... yet won first place in accuracy the last couple times around.

Polls are fun.... but not remotely definitive.

That's actually pretty common for Gallup.

Last presidential election they were tied with Rasmussen when Rasmussen for "Most accurate final number"  hoever were horrible when it came to consistency in their poll numbers.

They likely have an oversampling of undecideds/people who change their mind.

On the one hand... I think Obama will win.  On the otherhand it's hard to discount Rasmussen whose sample has been in 1st place when figuring out who will be President.  It's why there is a very real chance of a popular vote/electoral vote split.