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Forums - Politics Discussion - 2012 Election Center: The Main Event - Obama Wins

 

Of the two main candidates for president, who will win?

Barack Obama 245 75.85%
 
Mitt Romney 73 22.60%
 
Total:318
mrstickball on 05 November 2012
Kasz216 said:
gergroy said:
chocoloco said:
mrstickball said:
I think it'll be within 20 EVs either way.

I think Romney wins by winning in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida.

Highly unlikely, as Ohio has never had an average lead  for Romney in the state. His current average on RealClearPolitics has President Obama at 2.9% in favor for the state.


It all really comes down to the accuracy of the polls.  Personally, I think most of them are pretty accurate, or at least accurate enough for obama to win in the way i outlined earlier.  However, the oversampling of democrats present in most polls gives some credibility to people doubting the polls accuracy.  

Voter turnout will be an issue... despite democrats having a voter turnout advantage over republicans... it's much smaller then it was in 2000.

interesting too is that nobody is worried about the Bradley effect anymore.  I've only seen one place mention it.

Likely because republicans want to argue race isn't a factor, and if the bradley effect really is true... Obama would be very vulnerable.

That is pretty much it.

Turnout in Ohio has been disasterous for Obama thus far. Last I checked, absentee/early voting had Obama down 250,000 votes from last year - his entire margin of victory in the state. Republicans come to the polls (vs. absentee) by huge margins, so there is likely to be a 3%+ swing for him when its said and done. Ohio will be close, and I dread a recount, but I think its gonna be within 0.5% either way.


My strong belief is that the polls, thanks to hugely biased sampling, are going to swing 3% in Romney's favor, which is just enough to flip the election to him, especially when Ohio is (really) the only state that Romney needs to flip to win.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

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Kasz216 on 05 November 2012
mrstickball said:
Kasz216 said:
gergroy said:
chocoloco said:
mrstickball said:
I think it'll be within 20 EVs either way.

I think Romney wins by winning in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida.

Highly unlikely, as Ohio has never had an average lead  for Romney in the state. His current average on RealClearPolitics has President Obama at 2.9% in favor for the state.


It all really comes down to the accuracy of the polls.  Personally, I think most of them are pretty accurate, or at least accurate enough for obama to win in the way i outlined earlier.  However, the oversampling of democrats present in most polls gives some credibility to people doubting the polls accuracy.  

Voter turnout will be an issue... despite democrats having a voter turnout advantage over republicans... it's much smaller then it was in 2000.

interesting too is that nobody is worried about the Bradley effect anymore.  I've only seen one place mention it.

Likely because republicans want to argue race isn't a factor, and if the bradley effect really is true... Obama would be very vulnerable.

That is pretty much it.

Turnout in Ohio has been disasterous for Obama thus far. Last I checked, absentee/early voting had Obama down 250,000 votes from last year - his entire margin of victory in the state. Republicans come to the polls (vs. absentee) by huge margins, so there is likely to be a 3%+ swing for him when its said and done. Ohio will be close, and I dread a recount, but I think its gonna be within 0.5% either way.


My strong belief is that the polls, thanks to hugely biased sampling, are going to swing 3% in Romney's favor, which is just enough to flip the election to him, especially when Ohio is (really) the only state that Romney needs to flip to win.


Your right... depending on what you mean anyway.

 

Obama's lead in early voting is down around 250,000.  Partially due to not as many democrats showing up, and partly due to more republicans showing up.

 

Of course... it's ALSO worth noting that those numbers aren't votes for the candidates.  Only the number of people from each party who voted... and indepentent voters are up as well.

So... who knows.



mrstickball on 05 November 2012
Kasz216 said:
mrstickball said:

That is pretty much it.

Turnout in Ohio has been disasterous for Obama thus far. Last I checked, absentee/early voting had Obama down 250,000 votes from last year - his entire margin of victory in the state. Republicans come to the polls (vs. absentee) by huge margins, so there is likely to be a 3%+ swing for him when its said and done. Ohio will be close, and I dread a recount, but I think its gonna be within 0.5% either way.


My strong belief is that the polls, thanks to hugely biased sampling, are going to swing 3% in Romney's favor, which is just enough to flip the election to him, especially when Ohio is (really) the only state that Romney needs to flip to win.


Your right... depending on what you mean anyway.

 

Obama's lead in early voting is down around 250,000.  Partially due to not as many democrats showing up, and partly due to more republicans showing up.

 

Of course... it's ALSO worth noting that those numbers aren't votes for the candidates.  Only the number of people from each party who voted... and indepentent voters are up as well.

So... who knows.


AFAIK, they project the numbers by simply looking at the counties that have requested and filled out the ballots. They then project likely voting outcomes based on historical patterns. e.g. if someone wants a ballot from Cuyahoga County, there is a 65% chance that person is voting for Obama/Democrats, whereas someone filling a ballot out in Delaware County is the exact opposite.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Kasz216 on 05 November 2012

Actually this pretty well explains how i see this election...

http://www.dorkly.com/embed/45904/political-kombat-12-obama-vs-romney

good stuff.



gergroy on 05 November 2012
Kasz216 said:

Actually this pretty well explains how i see this election...

http://www.dorkly.com/embed/45904/political-kombat-12-obama-vs-romney

good stuff.

Wow, that was awesome.  I was missing a good political video this year since jibjab didn't make one.  I'm sharing this sucker on facebook!



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insomniac17 on 05 November 2012
gergroy said:
According to the redskin rule, looks like Romney is going to win tomorrow :)

In RGIII we trust? (He's about the only one you can trust on the entire Redskins team)

More importantly, I agree with choco. It looks like marijuana will be decriminalized in Colorado and Washington. I don't smoke, but I don't like people telling me how to live my life.

Most importantly, no more political calls. Nothing ruins my day like constant calls from politicials or polling agencies wanting to waste my time.



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GianCarmen on 05 November 2012

I just cant believe that people really plan on putting another republican in the White House. Look what President Bush did. Yea President Obama will win by 5 to 10 points.



the2real4mafol on 05 November 2012

Let's predict the final result

Barack Obama (Democrat)~49%
Mitt Romney (Republican)~45%
Others~ 6%

Let's see how close that is!



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GameOver22 on 05 November 2012

Does anybody here live in Ohio? I hear they're getting blitzed with advertisements....as in you can't escape it. Radio, television, billboards, etc. Evidently Romney's outspending Obama too. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.



GameOver22 on 05 November 2012
the2real4mafol said:
Let's predict the final result

Barack Obama (Democrat)~49%
Mitt Romney (Republican)~45%
Others~ 6%

Let's see how close that is!

You're braver than me. I might make a prediction if I have some free time tonight and can count up some electoral votes. My first impression is that the third party vote won't be anywhere near 6 percent, but who knows?