2012 Election Center: The Main Event - Obama Wins

[mrstickball]

Kasz216 said:

gergroy said:

chocoloco said:

mrstickball said:
I think it'll be within 20 EVs either way.

I think Romney wins by winning in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida.

Highly unlikely, as Ohio has never had an average lead  for Romney in the state. His current average on RealClearPolitics has President Obama at 2.9% in favor for the state.

It all really comes down to the accuracy of the polls.  Personally, I think most of them are pretty accurate, or at least accurate enough for obama to win in the way i outlined earlier.  However, the oversampling of democrats present in most polls gives some credibility to people doubting the polls accuracy.  

Voter turnout will be an issue... despite democrats having a voter turnout advantage over republicans... it's much smaller then it was in 2000.

interesting too is that nobody is worried about the Bradley effect anymore.  I've only seen one place mention it.

Likely because republicans want to argue race isn't a factor, and if the bradley effect really is true... Obama would be very vulnerable.

That is pretty much it.

Turnout in Ohio has been disasterous for Obama thus far. Last I checked, absentee/early voting had Obama down 250,000 votes from last year - his entire margin of victory in the state. Republicans come to the polls (vs. absentee) by huge margins, so there is likely to be a 3%+ swing for him when its said and done. Ohio will be close, and I dread a recount, but I think its gonna be within 0.5% either way.

My strong belief is that the polls, thanks to hugely biased sampling, are going to swing 3% in Romney's favor, which is just enough to flip the election to him, especially when Ohio is (really) the only state that Romney needs to flip to win.