2012 Election Center: The Main Event - Obama Wins

[mrstickball]

Kasz216 said:

mrstickball said:

That is pretty much it.

Turnout in Ohio has been disasterous for Obama thus far. Last I checked, absentee/early voting had Obama down 250,000 votes from last year - his entire margin of victory in the state. Republicans come to the polls (vs. absentee) by huge margins, so there is likely to be a 3%+ swing for him when its said and done. Ohio will be close, and I dread a recount, but I think its gonna be within 0.5% either way.

My strong belief is that the polls, thanks to hugely biased sampling, are going to swing 3% in Romney's favor, which is just enough to flip the election to him, especially when Ohio is (really) the only state that Romney needs to flip to win.

Your right... depending on what you mean anyway.

 

Obama's lead in early voting is down around 250,000.  Partially due to not as many democrats showing up, and partly due to more republicans showing up.

 

Of course... it's ALSO worth noting that those numbers aren't votes for the candidates.  Only the number of people from each party who voted... and indepentent voters are up as well.

So... who knows.

AFAIK, they project the numbers by simply looking at the counties that have requested and filled out the ballots. They then project likely voting outcomes based on historical patterns. e.g. if someone wants a ballot from Cuyahoga County, there is a 65% chance that person is voting for Obama/Democrats, whereas someone filling a ballot out in Delaware County is the exact opposite.