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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Red Ocean: It's funny how MS went from a 25m xbox marketshare to a 69m 360 marketshare

 

What about you, are you in denial?

Yes, I'm in denial, and ... 15 16.67%
 
The blue ocean strategy is enough of a win. 18 20.00%
 
They missed an opportunit... 12 13.33%
 
The opportunity shall ris... 18 20.00%
 
I think Microsoft is the next Nintendo. 27 30.00%
 
Total:90
Chandler on 19 October 2012

Until someone can disprove me I believe Microsofts marketshare didn't increase by all that much. In no way possible are there actual 70 million people out there playing this console right now. This is purely anecdotal evidence but I know so many people who are at least on their third xbox by now and a large quantity of people who are buying this console every month are actually people who rebuy the console to get back into their game library.

I'm just pulling this number out of my ass but I believe there are maybe 45 million unique FPSbox360 customers tops.



Ongoing bet with think-man: He wins if MH4 releases in any shape or form on PSV in 2013, I win if it doesn't.

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darkknightkryta on 19 October 2012
happydolphin said:
darkknightkryta said:
happydolphin said:

Okay, but then how much of the HD twin total do you attribute to tradcore? Without kinect+move the total sales are 119m (just recalculated). So how much of that was for tradcore?

70+ million.

So going through the logic with you, assuming that 70m+ was spoils from the PS2, then that would mean there is at best 84m casual/non-gamer sales on PS2 (total is 154m).

My brain is melting at this point, but that's where I got.

Yes!  But like I said before, we'll never truly know what the ratio really is.  Best you can really do is look at the top series on the PS2, get the top numbers from them and you'll get a rough guess of the amount of "core" gamers out there for the console (20 million to Gran Theft Auto, 15 to Gran Turisimo, 8 million to Metal Gear, etc).  Now with that said, all 3 consoles made "new" gamers which is why the number is higher, but those "new" gamers are attached to the red ocean,  not blue.  Difference now is that 3 consoles have almost equal share of the pie vs 80% to the PS2. 

Edit: There might even be less gamers taking into consideration there are most likely more multiplatform holders this gen than last.  Which makes you think, did gaming grow this gen?



happydolphin on 19 October 2012
darkknightkryta said:

Yes!  But like I said before, we'll never truly know what the ratio really is.  Best you can really do is look at the top series on the PS2, get the top numbers from them and you'll get a rough guess of the amount of "core" gamers out there for the console (20 million to Gran Theft Auto, 15 to Gran Turisimo, 8 million to Metal Gear, etc).  Now with that said, all 3 consoles made "new" gamers which is why the number is higher, but those "new" gamers are attached to the red ocean,  not blue.  Difference now is that 3 consoles have almost equal share of the pie vs 80% to the PS2. 

Edit: There might even be less gamers taking into consideration there are most likely more multiplatform holders this gen than last.  Which makes you think, did gaming grow this gen?

Yeah

And though we can't know the ratio for the PS2, given that we know that the PS2 went worldwide for many years, if the Wii sold as much to the same segment in the worst case scenario, then one could really only reasonably say that the Wii captured the PS2's casual market as well as expanded it, while doing so in fewer regions in a shorter span of time. :) I don't know if you see what I mean, but it's hard to say the Wii didn't expand the audience at least mildly if its run was cut short by its successor and if it didn't penetrate as broad a geography as the PS2 did.

Counting the games helps I personally think so! The question comes down to, do I add these, or do I merge them. Does GTA 15 and GTA 8 become GTA 23, or does it become GTA 15? All good questions imho. Being a sales forum, I was hoping to have more of this kind of exchange but when I get them I'm mostly just thankful.



VGKing on 19 October 2012
Chandler said:
Until someone can disprove me I believe Microsofts marketshare didn't increase by all that much. In no way possible are there actual 70 million people out there playing this console right now. This is purely anecdotal evidence but I know so many people who are at least on their third xbox by now and a large quantity of people who are buying this console every month are actually people who rebuy the console to get back into their game library.

I'm just pulling this number out of my ass but I believe there are maybe 45 million unique FPSbox360 customers tops.


THIS. I would LOVE for Microsoft to reveal how many ACTIVE Xbox 360 owners there are. Or maybe Xbox Live GOLD members?

There's a reason the PS3 is still extremely competitive despite all the mistakes Sony has made. Microsoft made a pretty big mistake of their own.

Look at the Call of Duty games. Despite the supposedly much larger # of FPS gamers on 360, the games only sell ~2 million more on Xbox 360 compared to PS3(that's on top of the timed-exclusive DLC).......the game should be much bigger on 360. Take out 8.5million from PS3's total sales because of Japan, and you'll see how weird it is that PS3 games sell so close to their 360 counterparts. Do PS3 owners just buy more games? Do 360 owners by less? NO. What I think is that the number of active PS3/360 owners is much closer than the sales charts would have us believe.



DanneSandin on 19 October 2012
runqvist said:
se7en7thre3 said:

What is this about? Nintendo won this gen, blindsiding everyone, hands down. Yes, MS is also a big winner, r*****g the dog s*** out of Sony. But this was expected, because everyone knew once M$ entered the scene, it was only a matter of time before they took over (so called "hardcore"). They were the NEW BIG BULLY on the block, with Sony rightfully crapping in their pants.

Nintendo passive aggressively backs off, creates a system you can have ALONGSIDE either of the two "big red" machines. But as the two dumb cavemen are killing each other, one battling RROD losing asstons of $$$, while the other is overpriced to death but no one gives a **** about blu ray...Nintendo's sippin mai tais on their blue ocean. Then the herp-a-derp copycat cavemen realized "OH, WE MUS COPEE NINTENDO NOW WITH TEH MOSHIN CONTROLE". Kinect was a disgrace (I can't even get good value at gamestop FFS), and Move was so shameless that people ignored it, despite being better than wii remote plus.


Big Winner by far (profits + units sold)
1. Nintendo

Mongolian Kamikaze mass destructor (big $acrifice to bring down Sony)
2. M$

Fall of the Roman empire (every dog has its day)
3. Sony

Your post makes me think that you have some serious issues. Derp is strong with you.

Moderated,

-Mr Khan

No, the derp is strong with you runie-boy. I think Se7en7thre3 made a very good point and post with this one. You are clearly blinded by your favorism of one or two consoles.



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darkknightkryta on 19 October 2012
happydolphin said:
darkknightkryta said:

Yes!  But like I said before, we'll never truly know what the ratio really is.  Best you can really do is look at the top series on the PS2, get the top numbers from them and you'll get a rough guess of the amount of "core" gamers out there for the console (20 million to Gran Theft Auto, 15 to Gran Turisimo, 8 million to Metal Gear, etc).  Now with that said, all 3 consoles made "new" gamers which is why the number is higher, but those "new" gamers are attached to the red ocean,  not blue.  Difference now is that 3 consoles have almost equal share of the pie vs 80% to the PS2. 

Edit: There might even be less gamers taking into consideration there are most likely more multiplatform holders this gen than last.  Which makes you think, did gaming grow this gen?

Yeah

And though we can't know the ratio for the PS2, given that we know that the PS2 went worldwide for many years, if the Wii sold as much to the same segment in the worst case scenario, then one could really only reasonably say that the Wii captured the PS2's casual market as well as expanded it, while doing so in fewer regions in a shorter span of time. :) I don't know if you see what I mean, but it's hard to say the Wii didn't expand the audience at least mildly if its run was cut short by its successor and if it didn't penetrate as broad a geography as the PS2 did.

The Wii captured the PS2's casual market, add in the Nintendo core, and you'll have Nintendo's current numbers.  I still don't think Nintendo expanded much, and as I edited, I don't think this gen actually expanded much considering there's probably far more multiplatform owners this gen than last.  I mean,  let's say 20 million 360 users own a Wii, that means there's 70 million unique Wii owners vs 40 million unique 360 owners.  Same can be said with applying the idea to PS3+ 360 owners, Wii + PS3 owners etc.  Last gen, at min, you had 100 million unique PS2 owners (150 PS2 - 25 million gamecubes + 25 million Xboxes).  Like I'm probably not articulating myself properly, but this gen didn't expand as much as people think.



happydolphin on 19 October 2012
darkknightkryta said:

The Wii captured the PS2's casual market, add in the Nintendo core, and you'll have Nintendo's current numbers.  I still don't think Nintendo expanded much, and as I edited, I don't think this gen actually expanded much considering there's probably far more multiplatform owners this gen than last.  I mean,  let's say 20 million 360 users own a Wii, that means there's 70 million unique Wii owners vs 40 million unique 360 owners.  Same can be said with applying the idea to PS3+ 360 owners, Wii + PS3 owners etc.  Last gen, at min, you had 100 million unique PS2 owners (150 PS2 - 25 million gamecubes + 25 million Xboxes).  Like I'm probably not articulating myself properly, but this gen didn't expand as much as people think.

No, I like your logic.

I would be ready to say that there were 125m non-multi-owned PS2 sales, because I know a few cases of xbox only or cube only fans, or some who only got a cube and an xbox. Then, I would be ready to subtract some 40m sales from the original PS2 model to yield some 85m unique PS2 owneres last gen.

But that's just a number, I don't know how to feed back into our previous logic :)



DanneSandin on 19 October 2012
BenVTrigger said:
1) I think MS has just done a great job of advertising their system, getting the most 3rd party support of any of the 3 consoles, getting a good price point, and having the definitive online space for consoles.

2) MS got to where they are on hard work and sound strategy, not because of anything Nintendo or Sony did wrong.

3) And also I dont see Halo 4 selling 15 million. 10-12 is more likely

1) True

2) False. Sony messed up and people turned to MS for good (3rd party) games. That's how they gained such market shares and success.

3) True



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DanneSandin on 19 October 2012
DélioPT said:
If we look at the end of the last generation, no one would expect Sony and the PS brand to take such a fall.
Nintendo and MS sure didn`t expect and proof is that MS was first on the market, first HD console on the market and first to truly embrace online gaming. On Nintendo`s side Wii had to be because Nintendo knew that another console like GC or N64 just wouldn`t cut it.

Truth is, all these bets worked out for MS and Nintendo: MS stole the marketshare from Sony and Nintendo widened the market.
Of course that Kinect helped a lot the Xbox 360 but at the same time that same boost is fading fast (just look at the data for Kinect adventures and you will see that.
Question is, will a Kinect 2.0 make a difference next gen? I honestly don`t think so.

If Nintendo has lost ground this generation in the red ocean? Yes. Can Nintendo take it back? Yes. Nintendo lost it`s dominance to Sony and Sony to Nintendo and MS. Why can`t things change again?
The question for Nintendo is can Wii U keep appealing to casuals and appeal strongly to the hard core gamers again? I think it can do both things. At least it has all the chances to achieve that goal.

This is a very good post imo!!



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Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

DanneSandin on 19 October 2012
happydolphin said:
DanneSandin said:
I don't think Nintendo COULD have competed in the Red Ocean against Sony and MS; Nintendo can't afford to loose that much on HW! They made the right choose with Wii: it was cheap and it was something new and it made loads and loads of money for Nintendo. This gen they could get back in the Red Ocean, but had they gone that route next gen the ocean would have been red from the bleeding Nintendo would have taken when launching a console on par with PS360.

Finding that Blue Ocean is what saved Nintendo.

@bold. I agree, but that's not the argument. The argument is not Nintendo's salvation. The argument is Nintendo's dominance in the Red Ocean, and consequentially, their dominance throughout the market. Clarifying: I never said the blue ocean did not save Nintendo.

As for if they could compete or not, the gamecube says yes. I've argued this with others, but it is certain that Nintendo could have made a more powerful system than the Wii, and the U is an example of that. I'm not asking for on par with PS360, and I don't believe that would have been necessary. I would argue that Nintendo could clearly have been more competitive on both the HW capabilities of the Wii, as well as the output of high quality Red Ocean games like Metroid Prime. That didn't happen. How much would that have stolen from resources evergreen product development? Not that much imho, we would have lost 1 game (DKCR) with 1 red ocean product.

Well, yes I do believe Nintendo could have done even better if they had had HD; they'd certainly get better 3rd party support. Had they gotten good 3rd party support sony and MS wouldn't have sold as many consoles as they did either. And regarding GC; Nintendo didn't compete witht that - they just managed to survie and make money. That's not competing.Nothing could have compete with PS2



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.