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Forums - Politics - Unemployment rate in USA drops below 8%? I am calling bull on this...

ECM said:
JazzB1987 said:
How accurrate is ths? In germany for example only people that are registered as LOOKING FOR A JOB count as unemployed. So if you live under a bridge or on a park bench. You are not counted.

It's basically the same here, which is a big part of the problem.

We only count those looking for a job--if you leave the labor pool, even though you want (but can't find) a job, you don't exist, so this artificially depresses/enhances the numbers even when the economy is doing well, which is why you hear the 10%+ number thrown around often because, alas, it's more accurate than the massaged numbers that work to politicians'--of both parties, depending upon who is ascendant-- advantage and no one else's.

I just don't get why that's such a big deal. Lots of people don't want or care to have jobs. Why should we penalize the potus for people that have no care for that?

Like, when I was in school, I couldn't have a job because if I did, I wouldn't count as a dependent. That would could me in "the real unemployment rate" as someone who isn't employed, which is a negative, but I didn't want a job.



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U6, which measures unemployment and underemployment held steady at 14.6%.

The reality is that the drop was due to about 350,000 people going off unemployment and not to a job. Its a government tactic to make it look more rosy than it actually is. Obama does, it, and so has every president for quite some time.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

ECM said:
richardhutnik said:
I am not saying that this is some evil Obama plot doing it, just that the measures to me seem pretty much broken.

This has been a problem for a lot longer than Obama, and there are no signs it'll be fixed, since it's always going to benefit one party when it's 'their turn', so there's no incentive to actually do anything about it. (And as long as there's 'play' in the numbers, they're going to be massaged extra carefully, especially during a presidential election year.)

And I posted now about it, to be consistent.  I have found the government stats to be suspect for awhile.  This site goes into reasons why:

http://www.shadowstats.com/

Only real measure is real jobs created in the private sector and how much they pay.  Also hours of employment is a factor.  The government could suddenly hire people to do nothing constructive, like dig and fill holes for no reason, but that adds nothing to the economy.  That is welfare with busy work to obtain it, and nothing more.



Flanneryaug said:
Not another Republican conspiracy theory...

Have you seen my posting history on here?  If so, you won't find it that.  And I decided to reply here, to be able to address that angle.  There are some who make it out to be some sort of Obama plot.  I was calling the measures being broken, and calling attention to it.  Also, I am not doing it based on some personal level now in my life.  I did post before about myself looking at landing work and starting in November, with a 1 year contract.  So, it is about the measures being wrong.



richardhutnik said:

Have you seen my posting history on here?  If so, you won't find it that.  And I decided to reply here, to be able to address that angle.  There are some who make it out to be some sort of Obama plot.  I was calling the measures being broken, and calling attention to it.  Also, I am not doing it based on some personal level now in my life.  I did post before about myself looking at landing work and starting in November, with a 1 year contract.  So, it is about the measures being wrong.

No one who has read your posts would ever accuse you of being a Republican, but the line that "This is all bull in an election year" does seem to indicate that you believe this is some kind of shenanigans, not just a broken system for counting unemployment.



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ECM said:
richardhutnik said:
I am not saying that this is some evil Obama plot doing it, just that the measures to me seem pretty much broken.

This has been a problem for a lot longer than Obama, and there are no signs it'll be fixed, since it's always going to benefit one party when it's 'their turn', so there's no incentive to actually do anything about it. (And as long as there's 'play' in the numbers, they're going to be massaged extra carefully, especially during a presidential election year.)

So what you're saying is that the Bureau of Labour Statistics deliberately massages these numbers in an election year to make the president look good? Is corruption in the USA really that deep? If so why bother even going through the sham of having elections?

Is the Bureau, like everything else in the US govt, staffed by political appointees at the senior levels? This would mean in every presidential election year the stats put out by the bureau will favour the president of the day.



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Most of these jobs are part time / seasonal though. Macy's alone is reportedly hiring around 80,000 workers for the holidays, so that alone gives the jobs numbers a nice little bump.

Come back in January and see what the unemployment rate is.



On 2/24/13, MB1025 said:
You know I was always wondering why no one ever used the dollar sign for $ony, but then I realized they have no money so it would be pointless.

While you can argue over which methodology is correct, I think shadowstats is a much more "natural" unemployment statistics; because it includes everyone people would typically consider unemployed.

 

 

The interesting difference between the official statistics and shadowstats statistics is that the official statistics have been declining since (roughly) 2010 while the shadowstats alternative has been growing by (essentially) the same amount. The reason for this is that, while the economy has been creating jobs, there have not been enough jobs created to cover population growth (250,000/month IIRC) and people who give up on finding a job are not considered unemployed by the official statistics.



theprof00 said:
I'm responsible for the jobs loss.
I currently have 5 jobs.
Server, Counselor, webmaster/clerk, Retail and Media Manager, Self-employed ebay buy/seller.
At 4 different establishments.


Now that is how you FSU.  I'm glad someone else isn't afraid to work.



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