I think this is a very interesting comparison and hope you continue to follow it.
16 Million is a strech for me but we will be seeing a very equivalent and excellent slate of title on the the PS3 this year compared to the PS2 reference year.
If price could come closer to the $299 the PS2 is at, and if we do see the new Final Fantasy then we probably would see similar sales. As it is I don't think those will happen so I am expecting slighter lower sales. 11-14 million for 2008.
While it is facing competitors already, being the best tech slightly offsets that. The biggest advatage is that it's strongest market, Europe, has grown rapidly in ternm of potentiol video game customers and still has the biggest room to grow.
Final* Word on Game Delays:
The game will not be any better or include more content then planned. Any commnets that say so are just PR hogwash to make you feel better for having to wait.
Delays are due to lack of proper resources, skill, or adequate planning by the developer.
Do be thankful that they have enough respect for you to delay the game and maintain its intended level of quality.
*naznatips is exempt