No one is even looking at why they are giving random guesses. If the PS3 drops to $299 before mid year, it will definitely sell 12million or more. Its about sustaining sales throught the slow parts of the year.

From Jan til July they sold only 3 million units. Priced at 299 with the only high-def format, with a good Madden game, GTAIV, and MGS4 they will sell well in ALL regions. On top of that Home and in-game XMB make it on par with the 360 with online features.

It would double that number, to about 6-7 million by August, then go on to get boosts from LBP, GT5, KZ2, and Resistance. Thats about another 8 million during the holiday season. Whether or not the WIi sells more, it probably will. But the PS3 will atleast double last years sales.

your problem is that the data doesn't support ps3 doubling sales this year

provide some data to support your case, not just saying "i think they will drop the price down to 300 by june and then i think they will sell 6-7 million by august and then i think they will sell 8 million during the holiday season even tho they only sold 9 million in 14 months over TWO holiday seasons" etc etc

 If certain games come out it'll sell 9 million +, otherwise not, my prediction is based on those games coming out

 Its not going to double, losing consoles don't work that way

10-12 Million

I think it will pull about 9-10m with extremely choppy sales. I think it will drop like a stone in the next three months with a good spike when GTA IV hits (at which time, I doubt we'll see a price drop). After that, I think we'll see it drop like a stone again until MGS (assuming it releases in late summer and not June or so), where we'll see another spike (again, no price drop). Then, sometime late in the year, we'll see it take off and make up lost ground with a $50 price drop and GT5 (assuming it releases this year) and Sony will have a successful Christmas.

Lots of predictions and assumptions in there... We'll see how right I am.

See my sign.

PS3 9.7 million.
X360 10.4 million.

I reckon the PS3 will do well this year. Maybe up to 15. Probably below but arround 13.

A lot of semi-casuals are really commited to the playstation brand, and this year the price of the PS3 will be far more accesable, as well as games on the PS2 drying up. People on VGchartz really underestimate the importance of this loyalty. It's allowed the PS3 to just about keep up with the 360, despite a massively inferior games library, and surely that defecit will be reduced this year.

It looks like blu-ray will win the format war. This should be a massive boost for the PS3. Currently, the PS3 is the best value 'budget to mid-range' HD format player arround. And it plays games!!

If blu-ray maintains its dominance, that will be as significant in boosting demand as another $100+ price cut would have been.

Without a price reduction I expect the PS3 to sell between 8 and 9 Million systems; if they reduce the price to $300 I expect the PS3 will sell between 9.5 and 10.5 Million systems.

Semi-casuals aren't loyal to anything. They buy what is cheap, fun, and accessible (see Wii, Nintendo).

We underestimate brand loyalty to this site because if brand loyalty was so important, Nintendo would have murdered Sony with the N64, Sega would still be producing consoles, Sony would be out of the business entirely, and MS never would have entered it at all.