I reckon the PS3 will do well this year. Maybe up to 15. Probably below but arround 13.
A lot of semi-casuals are really commited to the playstation brand, and this year the price of the PS3 will be far more accesable, as well as games on the PS2 drying up. People on VGchartz really underestimate the importance of this loyalty. It's allowed the PS3 to just about keep up with the 360, despite a massively inferior games library, and surely that defecit will be reduced this year.
It looks like blu-ray will win the format war. This should be a massive boost for the PS3. Currently, the PS3 is the best value 'budget to mid-range' HD format player arround. And it plays games!!
If blu-ray maintains its dominance, that will be as significant in boosting demand as another $100+ price cut would have been.
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