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No one is even looking at why they are giving random guesses. If the PS3 drops to $299 before mid year, it will definitely sell 12million or more. Its about sustaining sales throught the slow parts of the year.

From Jan til July they sold only 3 million units. Priced at 299 with the only high-def format, with a good Madden game, GTAIV, and MGS4 they will sell well in ALL regions. On top of that Home and in-game XMB make it on par with the 360 with online features.

It would double that number, to about 6-7 million by August, then go on to get boosts from LBP, GT5, KZ2, and Resistance. Thats about another 8 million during the holiday season. Whether or not the WIi sells more, it probably will. But the PS3 will atleast double last years sales.