You still haven't answered my main point. In video game sales history, innovation has never been necessary to hold onto your old audience. Consoles like the SNES and the PS2 and handhelds like the GBA have easily managed to hold the audience captured by their predecessors. Normally, something has to go wrong in a big way in order for the same people to not buy your console again next generation. The idea that Wii owners are casual hipsters without brand loyalty who are easily going to be pulled away by other things, while a plausible hypothesis, has little evidentiary basis. It's mostly based off "core" gamers' wishes so that they can feel superior to the "worthless casuals that Nintendo has been wasting time with".

Although Nintendo does have a stranglehold on handhelds, I can't see how that makes much of a difference. If they need innovation to succeed with home consoles, why shouldn't they with handhelds?

I don't see why you think Nintendo is gonna have stiffer competition either. In the sixth generation, it was 20m Nintendo consoles against some 180m non-Nintendo consoles, meaning that the competiiton was very, very threatening. In the seventh generation, it'll be something like 105m Nintendo conoles against around 180m non-Nintendo consoles. In comparison, the competition has become a hell lot weaker. Also, this time, Sony is in a dire financial situation and the PS brand has lost its magic. It took PS3 billions of losses (and even PS2 could sell at a loss at first) to get anywhere and Sony can't afford that again, meaning that it'll really take a miracle for PS4 to do well at all. MS could indeed be tougher, but I doubt it'll be enough to compensate for the lack of competition from Sony. For third party support, the difference between WiiU and the PS4720 doesn't look to be as huge as between Wii and the HD consoles. Even if it is, it'll just mean that the PS4720 will be a hell lot more expensive than WiiU as well, giving Nintendo more or less the same advantages as this generation.

Sure, there's more competition for the "casual" market, this time around, but that doesn't necessarily mean much. There was a lot more competition for the "mature" market created by the PS1 in the sixth generation, but Sony easily dominated it with the PS2 anyway.

Considering both the PS3 and 360 will end up between the 85-100m range, I dont see WiiU doing 40 million more than them. That would mean WiiU coming close to PS2 wich will never happen, even Wii couldn't.

There is no way the wiiu will do better than the wii. The wii boomed in sales because every man, women and child wanted one for it's low price and cool controls. it's most definitely not the same situation this time around and I don't see it being a major success. Why buy a wiiu when you can buy a 360/PS3 for less and have access to way more first party and third party titles.
I'd say the PS4 and 720 will do better than the wiiu as they will likely display a notable jump in graphical quality and features, but that really depends on how Sony and MS approach the next generation.

Before we prove you wrong you must prove that what you say is right.

lulz, whatever you say johnjucas.

of course those who dislike Nintendo will say no it won't and those who like Nintendo will say its possible

I think it is possible because I don't know that it won't because I don't have the ability to see the future like some Sony fans have

after all Nintendo was just lucky with Wii and DS

115 million might be a bit much but I think Nintendo will totally dominate the japanese market with the Wii U and I think that is what the console is primarily built for.

Microsoft to me is a big question; I don't think they will be successful in Japan, and I would be surprised if they were as successful in Europe next generation as this generation; but I think they could probably be bigger in North America next generation due to them being an American company, and Americans being all patriotic/nationalistic and stuff.

Microsoft, if they don't screw it up, seems to have a good idea of what the next generation should be; the one way they could screw up is pricing. I think if they over-tech their console, and overprice it, it will do heavy damage to their market.

Sony... I honest don't think Sony has had a very good idea of what they're doing; they seem very confused about the videogame industry - and the company seems to be in chaos and on the verge of collapse right now. They still think that making powerful systems and slapping their brand on it is the way to success; when that was failing them, they began to heavily copy other companies in both hardware and software. I can see Sony continuing this confused strategy into next generation. In terms of marketshare; Sony relied heavily on the PS2 reputation to get what massively declined market share they did get this generation. I can see a lot of people not wanting another Sony console; and the Vita is strong evidence that Sony brand appeal has largely evaporated.

Either way, for Nintendo, it seems to be a much easier road this generation. If the 3DS vs Vita is any indication, Nintendo should see increased success in the next generation. Nintendo won't have the same sort of software droughts in the early system lifecycle, many of the top games on PS3 and Xbox 360 will also be on Wii U over the next year. Then after a year, the exclusive lineups will kick into full gear, and it might be hard for anyone else to catch up after that.

I think Wii U could outsell Xbox 3 by a large percentage; but PS4 it should outsell by at least 3 fold, otherwise they are doing something wrong.

Microsoft also have the curse of the third console to overcome.

Sony, Nintendo, and Sega all had disappointing 3rd consoles.

It's a very ironic hurdle. Short version: hubris. It wil be interesting to see how Microsoft takes it.