enrageorange said:
I'm pretty sure you are the one who needs to do the proving. Obviously no one can prove you wrong 2 months before the system is even launching
Or alternatively..
Motion control was an innovation, tablets no longer are. Nintendo consoles that haven't innovated have never sold over 50mil. 360 is rapidly catching up to the Wii in America and the PS3 is rapidly catching up in Europe. Nintendo is losing its dominance everywhere but Japan.
Wii U will sell much worse than the Wii. Prove me wrong.
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Perspective. 50m in itself means nothing, being decades ago. SNES was actually a pretty decent success; it maintained more than 80% of its predecessor's sales, with much, much stiffer competiton; in fact, the fifth generation was probably the most competetive ever, with the Sega Genesis managing a very comparable 40m.
Also, if we bring handheld sales into this (I don't see why not; it's the same industry), Nintendo's non-"innovative" GBA managed over 80m against less than 120m for GB. The thing here is that Gameboy sales include GBC, which was a fairly big deal graphically, meaning a significant amount of people probably upgraded, making the userbase not more than 80-90m at best. Also, GBA was killed very prematurely (its successor launched three and a half years after it) when it was barely hitting its stride, so it probably would've done a lot more.
Looking at this kind of precedent, I'd say it's very likely that WiiU will do about as well as Wii, since competition is likely to be much weaker, given Sony's financial state and the Vita, and there's no reason for WiiU to be killed prematurely by a successor.