Can we PLEASE stop saying this is about 3rd parties? It's about MATURE titles - he even makes his point by comparing 3rd party Carnival Games to 1st party Metroid Prime!
Now, let's take a gander at those mature titles:
Red Steel - 1,000,000+
Resident Evil 4 - 1,000,000+
Resident Evil UC - 740,000
Metroid Prime - 500,000+
Manhunt 2 - 150,000+
Medal of Honor 2 - 120,000+
Soul Caliber Legends - 90,000
Scarface- under 100,000
No More Heroes - TBD
I think these are the "major" or "quality" releases - ignoring some of the shovelware like CoD3, or MoHV.
So of 8 titles, 2 are million sellers, a third well on it's way, and at least one other is profitable. That looks pretty good to me.
Red Steel - OK, weak reviews, but fans geek on the idea of Wii swords. Does anyone think this desire has abated one bit? If anything, we are waiting for a "Red Steel" that is done right.
Resident Evil? Sure, it's got a bankable name, but that never helped RE:Remake or RE: Zero. Is it the name that's selling, or the reviews?
MP3? Sales are comparable to MP2. Could it be this is the base market for this franchise? And can I say this is one of the tamest "mature" titles I can recall, so using it as basis for this argument seems week to me.
ManHunt 2? Sales are comparable to the PS2 (190,000), reviews were modest, and the controversy kept it out of many stores. Given how far this pushes the envelope (or at least did before being edited - something that surely didn't help sell it to interested gamers), I'm not sure it would have done much better with stellar reviews.
Medal of Honor 2 Heroes? OK, this title (reportedly) deserves better. But it was practically snuck onto store shelves, and sits in a glut of other WW2 shooters. It has sold only on the strength of it's word of mouth. Given the beating the MoH series has taken over some of its weaker titles, I think this is respectable, and likely will be profitable.
Soul Caliber Legends? Did we learn nothing from Mortal Kombat: Sub Zero? If you have to make a game like this, at least make it good. But the reality is SC fans want another fighting game, not a hurried adventure game trying to cash in on the Wiisplosion. I think it's selling as it deserves.
Scarface? Released over 6 months after versions on other consoles.
No More Heroes? Way premature to render any verdict on this title. Talk to me after it's hit US and EU shelves.
Conclusion? Inconclusive. Quality titles can be found up and down the chart, as can mediocre games. Same with IPs - RE sold, but ManHunt, Soul Caliber and Metroid failed to compete with Red Steel.
What I think it clear is that the 3 best sellers all have a clear hook to bring in gamers - Red Steel's sword play, RE4's legacy and cheap price, REUC as the first "gun game" in ages- while most of the others don't have much to distinguish them from the crowd (save Manhunt 2, who's selling point is also it's Achilles heel). Let's see a few more ambitious, high quality efforts, and then we can start to see if there's a real pattern emerging.