3rd-party games on the Wii will succeed - but it may take a couple of years before its fully established.
Many of the early adopters are either Ninty fans (who primarily buy Ninty titles) or casuals (buying it for WiiSports).
The "average" gamer is only just starting to buy into the Wii - so the effective install base for these gamers is only 25% (or so) of the overall install base. This % will slowly rise, and this coupled with a largely increasing overall install base - there will be a lot more "normal" gamers who own a Wii, and willing to head out and buy "typical" 3rd-party titles.
As long as the Wii gets inferior versions (i.e. disproportinate) this won't change either.
RE4 was a good start, but even that was a budget port.
PES, Star Wars, GTA, Monster Hunter, FF:CC, Brawl - they will be the games that get "gamers" purchasing a Wii, and potentially putting away their PS2 for good.
It would have been interesting to see how a full budget CoD4 on the Wii would have done! Same applies to Assassins...
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