Don't forget about the first MW (Reflex) on the Wii which was released 2 years after the PS3/360.  It still managed to sell ~1.5 million.

CoD sales are becoming more and more front loaded though as each CoD launch becomes more and more of an event (just like Hollywood summer movies, sequels of big blockbusters are more frontloaded to the opening weekend because the fanbase wants to see it as soon as it comes out).

If you have hardware just sitting there in the warehouse, then it'd be stupid not to launch before Nov. 13th.

It's not like launching on Nov. 11th vs. Nov. 18th or something is the difference between having 2-3 games at launch vs. 15, most of the launch content for the Wii U should be ready to go.

You're going to have millions of people coming to the store to buy CoD: BLOPS 2, maybe you can get a bounce and have some of them pick up a Wii U to go with it. It's the biggest game launch of the year. Worth a shot anyway.

If they're sticking with the Sunday release date, then I think Oct. 28th or Nov. 3rd would be a good launch date. This gives you time to get the launch early adopters/line-up on day 1 people and then also have time to make a 2nd/3rd shipment for Black Friday. I always kinda think launching directly around Black Friday is stupid, because you have no stock left for normal Black Friday shoppers after early adopters buy everything up. 

I think this would be ideal

Nov. 3rd Launch -- Nintendo Land, Pikmin 3, Rayman Legends, Zombi U, Assassin's Creed 3, Madden NFL 13, Tekken Tag Tourney 2, Mass Effect 3, Batman AC, Just Dance IV, etc.

Nov. 13th -- CoD BLOPS 2

Nov. 25th (Sunday before Black Friday) -- New Super Mario Bros. U 

Gives you nice spacing between big releases and time to take advantage of second/third shipments. You make Ubi Soft happy by giving them some time to cash in with Rayman before Mario hits, Zombi U has time before CoD hits. 

The toys can still come out October 25th and the Wii U releases mid-November. Toy promotions like this usually last several weeks since most places release one toy at a time. So the promotion could start October 25th and last until the Wii U launches.