Kasz216 said:
Sure it is. The point is... proportionally, Iran would be more agressive. If a larger power Iran would be agressive... and it would be more agressive then most western countries are. IE, make Iran the size of any western nation, and they will be more agressive then that nation would be.
Make Iran the size of France for example... and Iran will be more aggressive then the current france is. |
Iran already has three times the territorial size of France, the population is about 25% bigger. And yet, it hasn't started a single war for hundreds of years. So what measure of "size" are you thinking of?
Iran's whole military strategy is extremely defensive. And by "defensive" I don't mean the modern understanding of "defensive" of many western countries, which is something like "offensively attack any country that at some point in the future might be considered a threat, if only economically". I mean the more original understanding of "defensive" as "protecting your territory against an invasion". By historical evidence, few countries can be considered as peaceful as Iran.
| Kasz216 said: Well that and Iran has the fact that the majority of it's population hates it's rulership. |
Really? Or do you just believe so because a couple of years back you clearly saw thousands of middle- to upper-class metropolitan iranian youths waving green flags on TV? There is a reason why the middle-east uprising has not reached Iran so far, and it's not only because the iranian leadership is oh so oppressive. Quoting from "Iranian Public Opinion on Governance, Nuclear Weapons and Relations with the United States", an article by "World Public Opinion" based on surveys in Iran:
"Iranians are on the whole dissatisfied with their economy, but don't necessarily blame their leaders for their economic difficulties."
"a clear majority of Iranians express satisfaction with the "process by which the authorities are elected in this country" (62%, including 18% very satisfied and 44% somewhat satisfied) and approved of "the way President Ahmadinejad is handling his job as president" (66%)."
"On the whole, Iranians appear to be relatively content with their government's responsiveness to the people. Iranians on average give their country a positive score of 5.9 (on a 0 to 10 scale, 0 meaning "not at all" and 10 meaning "completely") on being "governed according to the will of the people."1 Asked what the ideal level of government responsiveness would be, Iranians said an 8.4 on the same 0 to 10 scale. The 2.5 point gap between the average perceived rating, 5.9, and the average ideal rating, 8.4, is considerably less than the average gap on this scale obtained for 19 countries on a WorldPublicOpinion.org survey conducted between November 2007 - March 2008 (8.0 average ideal - 4.5 average perceived = 3.5 gap, across 19 countries)."
Source: http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/brmiddleeastnafricara/527.php
| Kasz216 said: Thirdly, their leaders when being removed from power, face fear or daeth. You are much more likely to give it all up and nuke another country if your option is death, or death as that guy used the first nukes since WW2. Then you are, first guy that used nukes since WW2 and Guy who gets paid a sweet pension, gets sweet healthcare and can charge seven figures for speaking events. |
You'd have a hard time finding any evidence for those claims. First of all, the only person in Iran who ultimately decide over nuclear energy, weapons and their use is the religious leader. Since the islamic revolution in 1979, there have only been two: Chomeini, who died in 1989, and his successor up to the present day, Chomenei - who multiple times spoke out against nuclear weapons and in 2005 he even published an islamic Fatwa that prohibits the production and use of nuclear weapons.
And the religious leader doesn't usually have to fear being removed from power, for it's pretty much a lifetime job.
Furthermore, if I look at the oversized public pictures of the iranian religious leaders in the country, they seem to like being adored/honored by the people. I find it rather hard to believe that such a person would suddenly decide that he wants to be remembered by history as "that insane guy who was responsible for the country being bombed back to the stone ages by attacking another country with a nuclear bomb". You may consider the iranian leadership as insane, but they know very well that attacking another country with a nuclear bomb would be completely devastating for them.
All in all, there just is no iranian nuclear threat. American and israeli intelligence reports have estimated the probability of a nuclear armed Iran attacking another country with a nuclear bomb as low as 1%. What's considered somewhat probable is the possibility of an iranian nuclear retaliatory strike. So if one wants to start a nuclear WW3, attacking Iran seems like an excellent idea.
Kasz, you always seem very educated whenever it comes to economical topics, but most of your arguments in this thread seem like wild speculations/claims without any evidence.












