Sony initially predicted 10M PS2, 9M PSP and 11M PS3 consoles but in July they adjusted their predictions on PSP and PS2, both revised up. The PS2 is now expected to sell 12M and the PSP 10M. That is 2M more for PS2 and 1M more for PSP. They did not revised their initial PS3 number, it's still at 11M. I can't see how they're going to reach 11M PS3 and find it very strange they did not revised it down in July. Sony is the only entity with the official data but I think that, just like most of us, they probably know they can't meet the 11M unit sales. Let's do some analysis: They shipped 0.71M in Q1 and 1.3M in Q2. total of 2.01M in the first 6 months of their FY

If we assume they will ship 2.5M in Q4 (they shipped 1.3M in Q2 against Halo 3 and with a higher price, so it's not impossible) we will have 4.5M without Q3 (Holiday season)

To reach 11M on January 31st they need to report at least 6.5M shipped units on their Q3 earnings report.

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 07th Oct 2007 to 30th Dec 2007:

So, either VGC is off by at about 3M (kind of hard to believe) or it will not happen.

 EDIT: Link for forecast http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/fr/viewer/07q2/slide/18_slide.html

They also didn't change their software number of 250 million. I don't think they are going to hit that number either, but I haven't run the numbers on that yet.

They will lower their expectations to somewhere between 8 and 9m.

Actually their forecast for software is:
PS3 = 13.4M
PSP = 54.9M
PS3 = 193.6M

Total = 261.9M

Those were the 2006 FY numbers.

http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/fr/07q2_eleki.pdf 

Sony software sales Q1 and Q2:

Q1

PS2 = 31.1M
PSP = 9.9M
PS3 = 4.7M

Q2

PS2 = 38.0M
PSP = 12.6M
PS3 = 10.3M

Total for Q1+Q2

PS2 = 69.1M
PSP = 22.5M
PS3 = 15M

Combined total for first 6 months = 106.6M

I think they might actually meet their 250M software number... 

Good call :) Thank you, so it's 250M after all

Question, Crazzy.

What causes PS3 to sell in March 133% more than it did 2 months prior in January?  Are you predicting a large price cut as well?  That might do it.

"PS3 2008 (2nd year) - PS2 2001(2nd year)
Since 1st Januarty til March 31 2008 Total PS3 = ???
Since 1st Januarty til March 31 2001 Total PS2 = 2,64 mln."
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=All&cons2=PS2&reg2=Total+Other&cons3=PS2&reg3=Japan&start=36891&end=36982

I think a clearer chart of the PS2 during that time period is:

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=All&cons2=PS2&reg2=Total+Other&cons3=PS2&reg3=America&start=36800&end=36982

Since the PS2 had just been launched both in America in Oct 2000 and Total Other in Dec 2000, to say that 1 - 3 months later that they are in their second year, while literally true, is a bit much. 

However, I do see PS3 selling better than it did last year.

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 31st Dec 2006 to 01st Apr 2007:

So strangely enough,  if they can get a 50% increase in the next 3 months they will hit your 2.5M revised.  A good size jump, but perhaps doable.  And then like you say, stuff those retail supply lines with another 2.5M.  Ouch!!

@CrazzyMan: The point is that stores *already* have PS3s that have been shipped - but not yet sold.

So of the 3m you have counted as sales, 1m (maybe more) has already been shipped.

The ONLY time you get the benefit of channel stuffing is at/after launch (assuming demand
...

@Naraku: I wouldn't worry about Sony. Apart from some egg on their face (for making a bad forecast), not much happens. Maybe some loss of confidence by investors, etc.