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JEMC said:
The problem with Just Dance is that it will also appear on the Wii, which will be the version that sells the most, by miles. Have you seen its sales on the 360 and PS3? It has 1.75 mil on the Xbox360 and 0.34 on the PS3. I'm sorry but, even though the WiiU version may sell better than the Xbox360 one, I won't reach the 5 mil claimed by Salnax.
I agree with you about Assassins Creed.
Dragon Quest X is a wild card because it will launch first on the Wii and also because it's more like an MMO than a traditional JRPG.
I admid that the Lego game has potential, and the other Lego games have sold well. We'll see.
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The thing about Just Dance 4 is that the Upad's added feature could be the deciding point. Also, I know of quite a few people who play video games, and who like playing games like Just Dance when drunk. I could certainly see them buying a Wii U, and then buying Just Dance 4. Keep in mind that it'll sell strongly during the Christmas rush period. Just Dance 3 managed to sell over 9 million since 2011, despite lagging Wii sales, competition from 360 and PS3 versions, and it being just a periodic update. What happens when a game adding significant new features, on a completely new and "cool" system, gets launched alongside games like NSMBU and NintendoLand (referring, here, to people who buy the system for the cool multiplayer stuff).
While you're right that 5 million isn't guaranteed, at least early on, it's likely that it'll come close at worst, and it has a serious chance to get much higher than 5 million. It all depends on how well the Wii U itself performs, really - if it captures strong mainstream interest, bet on Just Dance 4 selling really well alongside it. Heck, there's a strong chance that retail bundles will be made that bundle it in with whatever the official bundle comes with (that is, Gamestop, for instance, will sell bundles including that game, because they know it'll sell well).