So the first thing that entered my mind after watching Nintendo's E3 conference "The hardware looks great but there are no games". Take a look back at every past console unveiling Nintendo has done their are always at least 35 games announced. I remember the Wii's unveiling had more games unveiled. With around 30 launch window titles I must say I am scared. So why am I scared?
Nintendo is repeating the same mistake they made with 3DS they are launching with a focus on casuals and not their core market. Yes Pikmin is an amazing core property but it only has a million copy sales potential to our knowledge, the install base simply isn't high enough to make it a super power much like 3DS had Pilot wings. Much like Nintendo chose to do with 3DS they are launching with a casual property WiiFitU the other WiiFits sold around 20 million copies each. But remember Nintendogs, a casual game with 20+ million selling potential if we followed DS figures yet the title has sold fewer then 3 million copies. For the first party line up it seems Nintendo is only changing one thing from their abomination of a 3DS launch. Mario day one! But is Mario really an IP that will cause gamers to purchase a 379.99$ piece of hardware? The game is great but I cant help but remember how bad GameCube did despite Mario. Yes I know this is 2D Mario but where are the changes? NewSuperMarioBrosU looks no better from a graphical or performance stand point from its Wii counter part. One must also keep in mind the other two NewSuperMarioBros games launched on successful hardware they had a massive install base already in existence to sell the software.
The third party line up is where Nintendo really dropped the ball. Last year EAGames stated every major IP from EAGAMES being released in 2012 would be present on WiiU. But after E3 Peter Moore was interviewed and he said other then Mass Effect the sports teams were the only EAGAMES teams working on WiiU software. He did say EAGAMES was bullish but that's a little PR. Activision also appears to have changed tune with all the other CoD's well almost all of them being ported to Wii a far inferior system requiring a ton of work you'd expect CoD:BlackOps 2 would be a sure thing yet Nintendo didn't show it and Activision said they weren't willing to talk about the titles absence. Sega also had stated last year that they were fully behind Nintendo this year all but dissapeared with that Sonic game everyone had been talking about no where to be seen. THQ who had stated they wanted to rival UbiSoft as Nintendo's biggest supporter with WiiU was very quick to abandon ship as well with only DarkSiders II present, we know they had at least one WiiU exclusive in development was it canned? Metro once a title Nintendo fans were looking forward to immensely also got the axe. It would appear that since last year Nintendo lost most third party supporters despite all the praise if the E3 line up is final its a massive blow to Nintendo!
So I see the WiiU hardware and cant help but be impressed. I'm satisfied Nintendo's online network will be up to snuff, however with such a horrible software line up could Nintendo get away with selling the console at 379.99$ as many estimates have suggested? Is Mario alone able to sell the projected amount of hardware units? Lets face it Nintendo is leaving a single title to sell the hardware its the only IP with a proven multimillion selling capability on multiple platforms. Two big games that are about a year or so old and one major port (AC3 ) simply are not sufficient third party titles. Everything else has little sales potential when it comes to the core.
We must remember that the core are the ones who buy hardware day one, the core are the ones that camp out and preorder. The core are the guys that own 10-30 games for their hardware. Look at Kinect, a huge amount of Kinect hardware was sold to existing core 360 owners and not casuals. A major reason Kinect has gone so far down hill is because it doesn't appeal to the core and it has failed to show diversity.
Realistically despite how amazing the hardware is an the potential of the platform, how high can Nintendo price the WiiU and still sell hardware? How high can they price the hardware and meet their projections? Remember amazing hardware like PSVITA have bombed because they failed to have the amazing software line up. 3DS an amazing piece of hardware tanked despite a 20+ million selling casual IP as the flagship title. What can Nintendo realistically expect consumers to pay for WiiU?
-JC7
"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer









